Who To Play in DraftKings/FanDuel Today

If you read some of my earlier posts, the GE number was explained. It essentially provides a good measure of how effective a team's offense and defense is. The stats used right now for the GE number are based on projections from a variety of reputable sites that I have come to trust over the years. After Week 4, the GE number will exclusively use the stats for the 2016 regular season. Again, the correlation between the GE number and regular season record has been over 90% for nearly 2 decades. That means that over 80% of the variance of regular season records can be explained by the GE number. Personally, I think that is amazing (if you're a statistician, you know what I'm talking about)!

OK, so how do I go about selecting players using the GE number? Simple. Find teams that have a high differential between offensive and defensive GE numbers. For example, Green Bay has an offensive GE number of 1.49 (highest of all NFL teams right now except New England but their without Tommy Boy; his high school teachers at Serra still call him Tommy!) whereas Jacksonville has a defensive GE number of -0.18. That is a pretty big differential since it essentially means you have a superior offense going up against a below average defense. Definitely you will want to select some Packers today in your fantasy lineups. Of course Mr. Discount Double Check (aka Aaron Rodgers) is the man you want. His WRs/TEs and Eddie Lacy should put up good numbers but it's hard to tell who will get most of Aaron's love today. Rodgers is pricey but historically he has done well to open the season and he gets to pick apart a weak D in very nice weather conditions (about 90 degrees in Jacksonville with some clouds and very little wind).

Based on the GE number differential, here are the offenses that should do well today: Green Bay, Buffalo, Kansas City, and Seattle. Also, expect shootouts in the Detroit at Indy game and the Oakland at New Orleans game. The home teams can really light up when playing indoors regardless of the opponent and both have weak defenses. Detroit and Oakland both have the firepower to expose such porous secondaries. Another potential shootout is the New York Giants at Dallas game but the jury is still out on the Dallas backfield with a rookie QB and RB. Best to wait and see before going all in with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott even though those stars are bright deep in the heart of Texas!

For defenses, the biggest differential we see is with Seattle, Kansas City, and Houston. All three of them are at home and are healthy. They each play very mistake prone offenses so you should be fine going with any of those three options.

In summary, here are the players you should consider grabbing.

QBs: Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Derek Carr
RBs: Spencer Ware, Christine Michael, LeSean McCoy
WRs: Julio Jones (the guy is beast in home openers and against Tampa Bay), Golden Tate/Marvin Jones, Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree, Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead, Sammy Watkins
TEs: Martellus Bennett (he could get many targets tonight), Delanie Walker (Mariota loves this guy and he's reliable), Jared Cook (cheap and could do well but there are so many options for Green Bay)
DEFs: Seattle, Kansas City, Houston

Finding the right combination of players is of course the tricky part of DraftKings and FanDuel but as a rule, I try not to get too many players on the same team if I am playing in a large pool. It's just too hard to have 2 WRs on the same team to each get 100 yards and multiple TDs in the same game. Also, you are probably better off going with more money on WRs and saving on RBs. It's a passing league and many of the high priced RBs are hard to trust right now and could be in a timeshare. It may not be such a bad idea to couple a QB with one of his WRs. If that WR does well, guess what ... the guy throwing him the ball is probably doing well too!

I will post some possible lineups later this morning.