Super Five Picks - Week 7
Last week was brutal again. So many upsets!
We have to get this ship turned around fast. We went 2-3 with the Super Five picks and 7-7 against the spread overall. Over-unders were worse at 5-9. Here are our season numbers.
Super Five: 11-17-2
Against the Spread (all games): 47-42-2
Straight Up: 53-38
So how do we shake things up for Week 7? We won't take as much chalk and will take a really hard look at each matchup. Here is who we like for Week 7.
LA Rams -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
Miami Dolphins -3
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5
New England Patriots -3.5
So all mammals here with two dangerous big cats, a lovable sea animal, a horned male sheep, and a human being who loves his country! By the way, the photo is of me holding a Rams head in Taos, New Mexico. The man who killed this Ram did so by dropping TWO heavy rocks on its head from 1,000 feet!
Basically if the favorites we are going with win by a TD or more and Cincinnati doesn't lose by a TD or even wins the game, we go 5-0!
Here is our analysis!
The Rams continue to realize their fullest potential with another great win on the road against a formidable opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars. They continue their travels to foggy London town and take on their division rival, the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals definitely looked strong last week with the addition of Adrian Peterson. We know the Rams can't defend the run well. However, we still like the Rams as they can exploit a weak Arizona offensive line and the Rams pass rush has been getting after the QB. In fact, Pro Football Focus has an average rating of 43.29 for the Cardinals O-line (ratings are from 0 - 100) which is awful and, as you probably guessed, dead last in the NFL by a significant margin. The Rams defensive line ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders. If you win the battle in the trenches, you win the game. Rams have had success this year by doing exactly that. Prediction: LA Rams 28 - Arizona 21.
The Jaguars let us down last week. That won't happen two weeks in a row. In fact, the Jaguars have consistently followed up dud performances with stellar performances the week after. The Colts are just awful, plain and simple. In pass protection, Football Outsiders has the Colts at 30th. The Jaguars are #1 in adjusted sack rate. Just like the Rams game, we are going with the team that can assert itself in the trenches. Couple that with a Pro Bowl quality secondary and we don't see how Indy moves the ball. The Jaguars have leaned heavily on its run game so expect the same considering that the Colts were torched for 168 rushing yards last Monday night and 194 rushing yards to Seattle three weeks ago. Prediction: Jacksonville 28 - Indianapolis 13.
Miami was the one team that did us well last week. They went into Atlanta and not just covered but won the game. They also ruined several survivor pools! The Dolphins are home against the Jets. This has been a tight rivalry and usually it's dangerous to select a favor in what should be a hotly contested affair. We still like the Dolphins for their defense and Jets' lack of offense. We also like the Dolphins for their ability to run the ball and Jets' inability to stop the run. Again, win the war in the trenches, win the game or as former Jets head coach Herman Edwards famously said, "YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!" This game should be a slugfest with the Dolphins pulling away at the end. Prediction: Miami 20 - NY Jets 14.
Talking about slugfests, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh is the current NFL version of Hatfield-McCoy. These two teams have nearly taken each other's heads off the last few times they have played each other. Both are playing solid defense so expect this game to be ugly. That is why getting 5.5 points for Cincinnati is really, really good value. We don't care if this game is being played in Pittsburgh. These games are close regardless of where they play. We can see a major injury to a star player happening in this one. Prediction: Pittsburgh 17 - Cincinnati 16.
On the flip side, we will end with a game that should be a shootout if it's anything like Super Bowl LI, one of the classic championship games of all time. The Falcons make their way to Foxborough to exorcise the demons from 8 - 9 months ago. Credit the NFL schedule makers for treating us fans to such a great matchup on Sunday Night so early in the season! The GE model has the point total at 59.27 and the Vegas line is 56.5. Like the Dos Equis man, we usually don't see shootouts but when we do, we prefer New England! Tom Brady is the master at getting his way at the end of a roller coaster type of game. This game should be close but New England can win by a TD or more against a soft Atlanta defense. If the Falcons can't win their last two games at home to mediocre teams like Buffalo or Miami, how will they go into New England to beat a team that pulled off one of the best comebacks in Super Bowl history and that was against them?! Prediction: New England 35 - Atlanta 28.
Here are our predictions for all other games with comments.
KC 31 - OAK 28 (We were awfully close here!)
BUF 24 - TB 17 (Wake me up when this game is over.)
CAR 19 - CHI 18 (Expect some weird scores in this one.)
TEN 26 - CLE 17 (The Browns still can't catch a break.)
NO 24 - GB 23 (Hundley will do well in his first NFL start but the Packers will sorely miss Rodgers.)
MIN 21 - BAL 13 (Ugly game here between two superb defenses.)
DAL 27 - SF 24 (49ers will continue to lose close games but at least that is progress from last year.)
SEA 24 - NYG 20 (Giants will keep this game close but too many injuries to pull off the upset.)
DEN 22 - LAC 20 (AFC West games are usually close and super fun to watch.)
PHI 27 - WAS 20 (Eagles keep flying under the radar and should come away with another victory.)
As for betting strategy, parlay the Jaguars, Rams, and Dolphins. Then press your winning on the Bengals (try to buy a 1/2 point to get the line to +6) and then press again on the Patriots. If you start with $100, you could end up with nearly $2,000 by the end of the day! Again, win the war in the trenches, your team wins, you make money, and you can buy Xmas presents!