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Super Five Picks - Week 6

Sorry for our hiatus last week. We had issues with the site but all of that got resolved thanks to our web administrator and former student of mine Dylan Modesitt.

So last week was not good. We rolled with the NY Giants, Detroit Lions, LA Rams, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay covered and Minnesota pushed but the rest didn't cover.

Well, we need to reevaluate our process of selections and we feel this time we have made the proper revisions so that we are profitable moving forward. FYI, here are our season numbers before we disclose our Super Five Picks for Week 6.

Super Five: 9-14-1
Against the Spread (all games): 40-35-2
Straight Up: 46-31
Over/Under: 40-34-3

With more in-season data to consider, we feel confident about our Super Five Picks for Week 6.

Miami +11.5
Minnesota +3
Washington -10
Jacksonville -2.5
Kansas City -4.5

Of course we have our reasons ...

  • Miami is not a very good team and Atlanta is still a Super Bowl contender. The game is in Atlanta and the Falcons are coming off a bye week. All indicators point to Atlanta covering. Well the GE model has Atlanta winning by 9.75 points. We can see this being a 27-17 type of game. Keep in mind that the Miami defense is solid. In fact, it's above average. It's the offense that has stagnated. Still, asking a team to cover 11.5 with an average defense is way too much chalk so we will take the points. Prediction: Atlanta 24 - Miami 15.

  • The Vikings are an outstanding home team yet they are a home dog. I think Minnesota's head coach Mike Zimmer knows that Sam Bradford is not the answer at QB. Case Keenum is way better and he is now the starter. The Packers come into this game with a clean bill of health and winning a game on the road in Dallas. The Vikings, however, are 7-4 at U.S. Bank Stadium and you can bet that the Vikings faithful will be raucous for this divisional rivalry. This game should be close as it usually is between these two teams and we feel the home team wins outright. Prediction: Minnesota 24 - Green Bay 22.

  • Poor 49ers. They definitely are more competitive this year than last year but they are just losing so many close games. The last two OT losses really have to sting. To pour more salt into the wounds, the 49ers are now playing their third straight road game and have to travel cross country to our nation's capital. I find it perplexing that the 49ers flew back home after the loss at Indianapolis only to fly back to the eastern time zone a few days later. This has to wear on the team. Meanwhile, the Redskins are coming off a bye week. They are also a more talented team on both sides of the ball. Covering double digits is tough in the NFL but given that the 49ers are 2-17 on the road since the start of the 2015 season with a average margin of defeat of 13.21 points, we think the Redskins will continue the 49ers road woes, especially since the 49ers are playing a third consecutive road game while the Redskins have had a week off to rest. Prediction: Washington 31 - San Francisco 13.

  • The Jaguars are like Rodney Dangerfield ... NO RESPECT! Even thought the Jaguars are favored to win by 2.5 points, the GE model has them winning by 9.90 points. Why? Because the Jacksonville defense has been amazing with two shutdown corners in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. While the Rams have looked good too, we can't ignore the Seattle Hangover. What is that you may ask? Any team that plays Seattle almost always struggles the following week, especially on run defense. Perhaps it could be Seattle's physicality due to the high number of penalties they incur. Not sure but it's an interesting trend. Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette has been a rock star this season and he should continue to rack up insane stats this weekend, especially since the Rams run defense is weak and the team will be flying cross country for this game. Prediction: Jacksonville 24 - LA Rams 17.

  • All the Chiefs do is cover. Don't over think this one. As a 9 point dog in the season opener, KC destroyed New England in Foxborough. As 5.5 point favor at home against Philadelphia, the Chiefs won by 7 (we now know Philly is no pushover at 5-1). On the road in LA against the Chargers, their long time division rival, the Chiefs covered the 3 point spread with a 14 point victory. Then the Chiefs hosted the Redskins on Monday Night Football and in a bizarre sequence of events, the Chiefs luckily covered the 6.5 spread with a late defensive TD and a final score of 29-20. Most recently, the Chiefs withstood an aerial onslaught from Houston Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson to win 42-34 in a pick 'em game on Sunday Night Football in Houston. I think we get it ... the Chiefs are really, really good and there is no reason to bet against them until we see otherwise. The Steelers have been reeling lately and we just don't see how they can keep up with this juggernaut coached by Andy Reid and led by quarterback Alex Smith, especially with this game being played at Arrowhead Stadium which rivals the other loud stadiums in the NFL. Prediction: Kansas City 28 - Pittsburgh 21.

There we have it! As for the other games, here is what we are thinking based on the GE model (home team with an asterisk).

Philadelphia 24 - Carolina* 23 (awfully close to the actual score!)
New Orleans* 24 - Detroit 23
New England 28 - NY Jets* 27
Baltimore* 20 - Chicago 10
Houston* 26 - Cleveland 17
Tampa Bay 27 - Arizona* 24
Oakland* 24 - LA Chargers 21
Denver* 27 - NY Giants 13
Tennessee* 28 - Indianapolis 21

Good luck tomorrow!