NFL Power Rankings - Week 13
We now enter into the month of December and this is the time when we usually see the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. With 5 games left for most teams (except for Cleveland and Tennessee who are on bye this week and each have 4 games left), we can see a good deal of movement in the playoff standings as well as the draft order for the bottom feeders.
I will do something a bit different this time with the NFL Power Rankings. Instead of just listing the order of teams, I will write a blurb about each team and project their expected record by the end of the regular season. FYI, the rankings are based on the total GE number. Just a reminder, a GE number of 1 or higher is considered very good, anything close to 0 is average, and below 1 is awful.
Without further ado, here we go!
- Dallas Cowboys (10-1)
Current total GE number: 1.39 (last week: #1 at 1.65)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #2 at 1.50 (last week: #2 at 1.49)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #17 at -0.11 (last week: #10 at 0.16)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 14-2
The Cowboys keep amazing us. It seems they can win in so many ways. On turkey day, they won in a shootout with their division rivals from Washington. The week before, they won in a "grind it out" type of game against Baltimore. This week they travel to Minnesota this week to take on one of the best defenses in the league and in a very loud and hostile environment. Something tells me they will be up to the task on Thursday night!
- New England (9-2)
Current total GE number: 1.26 (last week: #4 at 1.10)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #5 at 1.05 (last week: #4 at 1.05)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #13 at 0.21 (last week: #14 at 0.06)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 13-3
The Patriots just keep doing it year after year. Even with all of the injuries and changes to personnel, the Patriots are poised to get at least a first round bye and most likely another trip to the AFC Championship Game. They will have to make sure Gronk is healthy if they wish to win a 5th Lombardi trophy.
- Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
Current total GE number: 1.07 (last week: #3 at 1.17)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #23 at -0.40 (last week: #22 at -0.35)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #1 at 1.47 (last week: #1 at 1.51)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 11-5
This ranking may seem out of place given that Minnesota is 6-5 and have lost 5 of their last 6 games. The Vikings are a better team at home and with 3 of the next 5 games at home and one of the road games against the hapless Jaguars, we can see the Vikings turning the ship around and winning another division title. This defense is too good for them to flounder.
- Denver Broncos (7-4)
Current total GE number: 0.99 (last week: #6 at 0.94)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #19 at -0.18 (last week: #23 at -0.35)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #4 at 1.17 (last week: #4 at 1.29)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 11-5
Yes, the Broncos lost a heartbreaker at home to KC but they are still not a team to mess with. The defense is still playing at a championship level and the offense has shown improvement. They should finish the season strong.
- Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1)
Current total GE number: 1.15 (last week: #3 at 1.15)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #21 at -0.23 (last week: #19 at -0.20)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #3 at 1.17 (last week: #2 at 1.35)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-7-1
This ranking, like the Minnesota one, is weird but we have to trust the data since the correlation coefficient between the GE numbers and win percentage is over 0.80. I think the Cardinals demolition of some weak teams earlier this season is inflating their GE number to a point where it can be deceptive. We will see what they do at home against Washington. They win, then playoffs can be possible. They lose, then forget about the playoff.
- Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Current total GE number: 0.93 (last week: #11 at 0.80)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #24 at -0.50 (last week: #24 at -0.49)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #2 at 1.43 (last week: #3 at 1.29)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 9-7
Here we have another blue collar type of team. The Ravens for as long as I can remember, sport a strong defense and an offense that does just enough. Still, I think the Ravens will miss the playoffs with the Steelers sneaking in at 10-6. There is just not enough firepower on offense for the Ravens to keep playing in January.
- Buffalo Bills (6-5)
Current total GE number: 0.88 (last week: #9 at 0.88)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #8 at 0.64 (last week: #7 at 0.61)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #11 at 0.24 (last week: #9 at 0.27)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 10-6
In any ordinary season, this Bills team would be poised to making the playoffs. The problem is that there are a lot of good teams in the AFC and I think Rex Ryan and company will be in for a heartbreak on New Year's Day when they learn that they barely missed the playoffs. Crazy to think that the Bills have the longest playoff drought in the NFL without any postseason trips in the 21st century. Losing in Oakland this Sunday would almost certainly seal their fate. As we usually say, there is always next year!
- Oakland Raiders (9-2)
Current total GE number: 0.88 (last week: #5 at 0.98)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #4 at 1.13 (last week: #3 at 1.19)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #21 at -0.25 (last week: #20 at -0.21)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 11-5
The Raiders should be ranked higher since I am very impressed with how clutch they have become. Their ranking is a tad less than Buffalo's GE ranking (0.883 to 0.878) which seems weird but I think that will all change on Sunday when the Raiders host the Bills. As long as the Raiders keep doing what they are doing, they should move up the rankings. Still, I don't think they win the division title (KC seems to be the team destined to do that). At least the Raiders should end their postseason drought and finally enjoy some playoff football.
- New Orleans Saints (5-6)
Current total GE number: 0.83 (last week: #14 at 0.36)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #3 at 1.27 (last week: #5 at 0.99)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #23 at -0.44 (last week: #27 at -0.63)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
The Saints have been a fun team to watch but unfortunately the defense can still be a liability. That loss to Denver two weeks ago still has to sting. The Broncos were awfully lucky to win and the Saints have lost so many close games. I would love to see this team play in January but I don't think that will happen as another team from the NFC South (see the next ranking) should win the division title.
- Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
Current total GE number: 0.80 (last week: #13 at 0.77)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #1 at 1.71 (last week: #1 at 1.74)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #29 at -0.91 (last week: #29 at -0.97)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 12-4
The Falcons have the best offense in football. No question there. They can put up 30 points on any given week. The issue is the defense and this means the Falcons will have a hard time putting teams away. With a weak remaing schedule, they may end up running the table and pushing Seattle for a first round bye. I will enjoy seeing Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and everyone else play in January but they just don't have enough on D to get to the promised land.
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
Current total GE number: 0.78 (last week: #7 at 0.94)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #13 at 0.04 (last week: #17 at -0.03)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #5 at 0.74 (last week: #5 at 0.97)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 11-5
This is a team to watch out for. They will eventually move up the rankings and I would not be surprised if they are playing in Super Bowl LI. They have a good deal of balance and if they are fully healthy with a firsy round bye, then they can make a run. Alex Smith is not sexiest of QBs but he does a fine job of manaing the game and head coach Andy Reid has done a commendable job of turning this franchise around. I can see them travelling to Foxborough in late January competing for a Super Bowl berth.
- Washington Redskins (6-4-1)
Current total GE number: 0.77 (last week: #12 at 0.78)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #5 at 1.08 (last week: #6 at 0.92)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #22 at -0.30 (last week: #18 at -0.14)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 9-6-1
The Redskins offense is a lot of fun to watch. Kirk Cousins has proven that he belongs in the upper echelon of NFL QBs and has a plethora of weapons to expose most defenses. They do have a tough game in Arizona where the Cardinals tend to play better. We see the Redkins making a return trip to the playoffs and hopefully they will square off against Atlanta. That would be quite the shootout!
- Seattle Seahawks (7-3-1)
Current total GE number: 0.68 (last week: #8 at 0.90)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #15 at -0.03 (last week: #11 at 0.34)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #6 at 0.72 (last week: #8 at 0.57)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 12-3-1
Seatlle is still a legit Super Bowl contender but every once in a while you get a head scratcher of a game from them. Only scoring 5 points in Tampa Bay?! Are you kidding me?! Didn't Case Keenum put up 37 points in Tampa Bay earlier this season?! Also, didn't the Seahawks win 31-24 at New England 3 weeks ago?! Again, the NFL can be strange and we all know how good Seattle is at home. Three of their next 5 games will be in Puget Sound and the remaining five opponents have losing records. Expect Seattle to run the table to earn a first round bye and compete for an NFC title.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
Current total GE number: 0.66 (last week: #15 at 0.32)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #9 at 0.50 (last week: #10 at 0.40)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #14 at 0.17 (last week: #17 at -0.08)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 10-6
If the Steelers can only be fully healthy for a whole season (or avoid needless suspensions), imagine how good their record can be. I think the Steelers will make a strong playoff push and play in January. The problem is that you never know if Big Ben, Bell, or Brown (or all three) will get hurt. This is a very dangerous team so if they are healthy, they can do some damage but the AFC playoff field is also very talented.
- Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
Current total GE number: 0.54 (last week: #10 at 0.85)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #17 at -0.08 (last week: #15 at 0.04)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #7 at 0.62 (last week: #6 at 0.81)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
Finally the Eagles came back down to Earth. Their GE number earlier in the year was inflated and it's safe to say they have now reverted back to the mean. I still like their defense and they have shown some growth this year. If you are an Eagles fan, you have to be excited for the future with Carson Wentz as your QB.
- San Diego Chargers (5-6)
Current total GE number: 0.28 (last week: #17 at 0.10)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #14 at 0.02 (last week: #13 at 0.11)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #10 at 0.26 (last week: #15 at -0.01)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 10-6
The Chargers have to be the "Kings of Almost". They have a positive point differential of 22 but all six of their losses have been by 8 or fewer points. It surely doesn't help to play in a division with three really good teams that all can make it to the Super Bowl. One has to wonder if Philip Rivers will ask to leave to play for a contender. He is perhaps one of the best QBs I have seen to not make it to a Super Bowl and I don't think he ever will if he stays in San Diego (unless the whole team moves!).
- Tennessee Titans (6-6)
Current total GE number: 0.21 (last week: #16 at 0.11)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #7 at 0.66 (last week: #8 at 0.59)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #24 at -0.45 (last week: #25 at -0.48)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
I like the Titans. They have shown nice growth and I am excited to see what they do in the next few years. Marcus Mariota represents the future of the NFL and he will be a Pro Bowl level QB for several years. He has some nice weapons and if the defense can continue to mature, the Titans could be a Super Bowl contender sooner than you know it (Tom Brady has to eventually retire!). I see the Titans winning the division at 8-8 and getting a taste of the postseason excitement. Unfortunately they will have to host an uber strong team from the AFC West but everyone needs to crawl before they walk.
- Detroit Lions (7-4)
Current total GE number: 0.01 (last week: #19 at -0.11)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #11 at 0.15 (last week: #12 at 0.17)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #20 at -0.14 (last week: #22 at -0.28)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 9-7
The Lions, to me, are all smoke and mirrors and GE ranking has it right. Yes, they are 7-4 but they are not going anywhere. They got lucky against Minnesota last week and the Saints will put them in their place this week. With three of their next 5 games on the road and upcoming games at the NY Giants and Dallas Cowboys, the Lions may wind up conceding the division to the Vikings.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
Current total GE number: -0.03 (last week: #21 at -0.27)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #20 at -0.18 (last week: #18 at -0.05)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #15 at 0.16 (last week: #21 at -0.22)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 7-9
Like Tennessee, there has been some nice growth with the Bucs. Jameis Winston has impressed with me with his play on the field and staying out of trouble when off the field. It helps he has an amazing weapon in Mike Evans and now the defense has turned it on with a win in KC and holding Seattle to just 5 points. They also destroyed the Bears. I don't think the Bucs make the playoffs with some tough games coming up but the future is bright.
- Miami Dolphins (7-4)
Current total GE number: -0.08 (last week: #20 at -0.19)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #18 at -0.14 (last week: #20 at -0.32)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #15 at 0.06 (last week: #12 at 0.13)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
The Dolphins were supposed to be one of the worst teams heading into this season and instead are now playoff contender. This is a testament to their strong O-line which has enabled the Dolphins to win 6 games in a row. The problem is that this O-line is dealing with a lot of injuries and we may seen the Fins slide. With games in Baltimore and Buffalo as well as another game against New England, the Dolphins may miss the playoffs yet again. At least there is excitement back in South Beach (in addition to Fidel Castro's passing!).
- Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-1)
Current total GE number: -0.17 (last week: #18 at -0.09)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #16 at -0.06 (last week: #14 at 0.08)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #18 at -0.11 (last week: #19 at -0.18)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 5-10-1
I think it is time that the Brown family fires Marvin Lewis and bring in some change. I still don't know why they have held onto Lewis who has yet to win a playoff game but given their current record, the time is now to bring in someone else. The Bengals are classic underachievers.
- New York Giants (8-3)
Current total GE number: -0.36 (last week: #24 at -0.65)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #25 at -0.66 (last week: #25 at -0.71)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #8 at 0.30 (last week: #13 at 0.06)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 9-7
This is the record I expected from the Giants last year but they lost so many close games. This time the Giants are winning those close games. Still though, I think the Giants luck may run out. They have benefited from playing some weak teams the past few weeks (Bengals, Bears and Browns to name a few) and now they have the Steelers, Cowboys, Lions, and Redskins coming up (all teams with winning records). The Giants will be in the postseason but won't last very long.
- Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Current total GE number: -0.38 (last week: #25 at -0.67)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #12 at 0.15 (last week: #16 at 0.02)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #28 at -0.53 (last week: #28 at -0.69)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 7-9
Nice win the Aaron Rodgers and company on Monday Night Football. If there is any team that can go on a run, it's this squad. I still don't think it happens. The defense is too weak and losing so many games earlier in the season will hold them back.
- Carolina Panthers (4-7)
Current total GE number: -0.42 (last week: #22 at -0.40)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #22 at -0.30 (last week: #21 at -0.33)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #19 at -0.12 (last week: #16 at -0.07)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 4-12
Super Bowl hangovers are a real thing and the Panthers have fallen victim to this trend. No Ryan Kalil or Luke Kuechly means that the Panthers can't dominate in the trenches like they did in last year's run to the Super Bowl. They will have a long flight home after losing another game in Seattle. Four of the five remaining teams on their schedule have winning records and the only team that doesn't should (Chargers). At least they will have a high draft pick and can bounce back next year.
- Houston Texans (6-5)
Current total GE number: -0.89 (last week: #26 at -0.79)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #29 at -1.12 (last week: #27 at -0.94)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #12 at 0.23 (last week: #11 at 0.15)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 7-9
Weird how this team is leading its division but just looks awful. No JJ Watt pretty much brought their season to a close. The Titans should sneak past them for the division title. Too bad Brock Osweiler is awful. Just think how good the offense can be if the Texans had a QB who can fully utilize DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, CJ Fiedorowicz, and Lamar Miller.
- Los Angeles Rams (4-7)
Current total GE number: -1.06 (last week: #23 at -0.58)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #32 at -1.33 (last week: #32 at -1.30)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #9 at 0.27 (last week: #7 at 0.72)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 5-11
Same old story here. Strong defense but no offense. At least the Rams are giving Jared Goff a chance but it seems that the Rams will be looking for a new head coach once this season is over. Maybe Jeff Fisher can come back to the 49ers!
- Chicago Bears (2-9)
Current total GE number: -1.17 (last week: #28 at -1.12)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #26 at -0.70 (last week: #26 at -0.77)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #25 at -0.46 (last week: #23 at -0.35)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 3-13
Another long year for Chicago. Hey, at least the Cubs won the World Series! I think John Fox's best coaching days are behind him and Jay Cutler needs to move on. Just blow up the team and start over again. This team has never been the same since Brian Urlacher retired (110-98 with him and 19-38 without him).
- Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
Current total GE number: -1.17 (last week: #27 at -0.80)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #11 at 0.20 (last week: #9 at 0.46)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #30 at -1.37 (last week: #30 at -1.26)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 7-9
I wish Andrew Luck had a better offensive line to protect him. He is destined to be one of the great QBs of all time but if the Colts don't invest in some hogs to keep Luck from getting pummeled, then their investment in Luck will go to waste. The defense is awful too. Chuck Pagano will probably be looking for a new job very soon. Jeff Fisher as head coach would make a lot of sense here given how well he build the Rams defense.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
Current total GE number: -1.53 (last week: #30 at -1.61)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #28 at -1.00 (last week: #31 at -1.12)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #27 at -0.53 (last week: #26 at -0.49)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 2-14
The Jaguars can never seem to go back to those good old days with Tom Coughlin when the franchise got its start in the mid 90s. I always thought this team would move to LA but maybe London will be calling!
- New York Jets (3-8)
Current total GE number: -1.64 (last week: #29 at -1.54)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #30 at -1.13 (last week: #29 at -1.11)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #26 at -0.51 (last week: #24 at -0.43)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 5-11
The Jets, I feel, just had a bad break this year. I think they are better than this and a change at QB might do wonders. I can see Colin Kaepernick coming to the Big Apple.
- San Francisco 49ers (1-10)
Current total GE number: -2.38 (last week: #31 at -2.37)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #27 at -0.86 (last week: #28 at -1.01)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #32 at -1.52 (last week: #31 at -1.36)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 1-15
Well, if you made it this far, good for you! I can go on and on as to how bad the 49ers are. It all comes down to ownership. They just don't care to put a winning team on the field if they allow Trent Baalke to still have his job and not spend $50 million from the salary cap. I am sure it helps the York's bottom line when you pander to the 1%ers who keep throwing money at this pathetic franchise. OK, I am going to stop. :-) This is not a good team and we will see if they can manage any sort of identity or be like the next and last team in our rankings ...
- Cleveland Browns (0-12)
Current total GE number: -2.65 (last week: #32 at -2.59)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #31 at -1.20 (last week: #30 at -1.110
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #31 at -1.45 (last week: #32 at -1.48)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 0-16
... argh, the Cleveland Browns. This is a classic example of how bad ownership can ruin a team just how the Yorks have ruined the 49ers or Chris Cohan ruined the Golden State Warriors before he sold the team. This Browns team is truly a JV squad and I am guessing they will make DeShaun Watson their first pick in the NFL draft. I feel bad for head coach Hue Jackson who is trying really hard in his first year in Cleveland. Maybe the Cavs and Indians (as well as the Republicans) winning ways will rub off on the Browns who still have some of the most devoted fans in all of football.
OK, there you have it! Hope you enjoyed this read!