NFL Picks Straight Up!

We will be using the GE model (explained in one of the first posts) to determine which teams to select to win straight up. You can use point spreads but that is public perception. The GE model looks at what has actually happened on the field so far this year and what should happen using robust statistical models.

Here are the teams to go with and the confidence factors for each team (16 being most confident and 1 being the least confident). Percentage chance of each team winning is also shown.

Seattle over SF (16) 79.8%
Dallas over Chicago (15) 72.6%
Arizona over Buffalo (14) 66.6%
Cincinnati over Denver (13) 64.0%
New England over Houston (12) 63.1%
Green Bay over Detroit (11) 63.0%
New Orleans over Atlanta (10) 61.5%
Carolina over Minnesota (9) 60.5%
New York Giants over Washington (8) 59.3%
Kansas City over New York Jets (7) 57.6%
Miami over Cleveland (6) 56.1%
Indianapolis over San Diego (5) 55.0%
Oakland over Tennessee (4) 54.6%
Baltimore over Jacksonville (3) 53.0%
Tampa Bay over Los Angeles (2) 50.2%
Pittsburgh over Philadelphia (1) 50.1%

Only 4 road teams should win this week: Arizona, Oakland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Home teams should do really well tomorrow and Monday.