NFL DFS Week 10 (2021)

My apologies for not giving the best NFL DFS advice lately for the main slate. The single game lineups continue to do well and I will keep sharing those lineups but we need to figure out how to do better with the larger slates. Definitely weird things have taken place the last couple of weeks with in-game injuries and several upsets. This is just part of the variance we should expect with the NFL. So how do we reduce that variance? By grabbing RBs expected to have a large share of snaps and carries and by selecting QB/WR stacks with favorable matchups. I know, sounds obvious but sometimes we get so focused on the Vegas point total, DK/FD pricing, or projected ownership that we forget that the sole purpose of daily fantasy football is to score more points than the other DFS players in your tournament. The correlation between RB volume and fantasy points is strong. Likewise with the differential between a team's passing offense rank and the opposition's passing defense rank (DVOA from Football Outsiders is a trustworthy metric).

For today, you are wise to select Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Dalvin Cook, or Christian McCaffrey at the upper tier of DK/FD pricing. It will be hard to roster 2 or more of those RBs so choose carefully. Should one of those RBs pop off for 30 - 40 fantasy points, you will already have a solid anchor. In the mid-tier, I only like one RB: James Conner. He will be the bell cow for Arizona with Kyler Murray most likely to miss another game and Chase Edmonds on the IR. Conner has proved in prior seasons with Pittsburgh and this year with Arizona that he can handle the lion's share of carries and produce. You will need some savings and two of the best bargains today are D'Ernest Johnson and Mark Ingram. Both are capable of carrying the rock 20+ times and getting into the endzone at least once. The matchups are not great but you are getting both RBs for under $5K on DK and under $6K on FD and they will see the field often.

As for the QB/WR stacks, there are two I really like: Tampa Bay and Dallas. Both of them rank in the top 4 with Pass Offense DVOA and their opposition rank in the bottom 5 with Pass Defense DVOA. Dak Prescott correlates well with both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb so it's really a coin flip. Michael Gallup is back in case you want to get a little sneaky or do a larger stack. On the flip side, you could do a throwback with Russell Gage. He is better for DK given the 100 yard bonus and full PPR. With Tampa Bay, you still have a coin flip between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I would lean towards Godwin in DK and Evans in FD given that FD is more TD dependent. You could easily roster both of them since Tampa Bay loves to pass whereas Dallas could get others involved such as Ezekiel Elliott and Dalton Schultz. Prescott is always a threat to run it in himself so be careful with any Dallas stacks you build. However, the injury bug has hit Tampa Bay pretty hard with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski out again so Brady doesn't have many options. I would not bother rostering any players from Washington. Tampa Bay could win this games 35-10 with Washington doing nothing.

Another stack that could be intriguing is Justin Herbert and Mike Williams. Today's game against Minnesota looks a lot like the matchup the Chargers had with Cleveland back in Week 5. Nick Chubb ran all over the Chargers and Dalvin Cook can do the same. Cook is an explosive back and the Chargers don't do well with RBs in the open field and who make it to the 2nd level. Don't be surprised if Cook has at least 1 long TD run of 60 yards or more. The Chargers run defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. A solid day by Cook means that the Chargers are passing often to keep up. Williams has been quiet so maybe he blows up today. The Vikings pass defense is nothing special. Another bonus is that this game is in the afternoon so ownership could be suppressed.

We finish things off by finding value at TE and Defense. Patrick Freirmuth and the Titans DST are the way to go. They are reasonably priced and both are very talented with great matchups. Again, don't pay up for pieces that won't produce and don't get too cute here. Stick with the solid mid-tier options.

Here are some sample lineups for today. FYI, the Chargers stack is similar to my traditional fantasy team which has been playing well. Why not roll with it!