I must admit that I did not like last night's slate. The pitching is going to be weird at times, especially in a condensed season. That is why we have to place a high value on Ks.
Walker Buehler is the most expensive pitcher today and deservedly so. He had several monster games last season. The problem is that Dave Roberts has gone on record saying that Buehler will just pitch 3 - 4 innings. Plus the Dodgers are in Houston. I say stay away.
The drop off after Buehler is significant. I kind of like the pitching match up in Texas. It seems that the new stadium is better for pitchers after seeing the Rangers previous ballpark be a haven for HR hitters. However, we need Ks and I don't know if Kyle Gibson or Merrill Kelly will help us out here.
This is where we will need to roll the dice a little bit. Enter Justus Sheffield of the Mariners. He has averaged a K per inning in his career as he has worked his way from the minors to the big leagues. As a high schooler he had two no-hitters, threw 17 Ks in one game, and was the national player of the year. I know, I know, that was high school but most of the best players had great numbers in their early years and no doubt Sheffield was incredible as a teenager. Again, we are rolling the dice.
With the savings we get at pitching, we can now pay up for our bats. We do need one stack and that stack will be the STL-MIN game. Carlos Martinez is returning as a starter after spending one season as a closer. Homer Bailey somewhat resurrected his career but boy-oh-boy was he a gas can prior to 2019. The Cardinals lit Bailey up often when he was with Cincinnati. The run total is at 10.5 but I think that gets smashed tonight if you are wagering on the games. You can stack the Cardinals and then get high priced bats for the remaining positions. You can do something similar if you stack the Twins. You can also stack both teams but that is risky. However, if you do and the game is 12-10 with the rest of the games low scoring, you will do great!
By the way, there are two games in the Bay Area tonight, my hometown. Both ballparks favor pitchers and it gets cool at both venues in the summer. That makes me lean towards Jeff Samardzija for my #2 pitcher on DK. At $6500, that is cheap and he does well at home. If he gets us 6 - 7 IP, 5 - 6 Ks, and gives up no more than 1 - 2 ERs, then we are golden. I would avoid any offensive stacks in those games and likewise with the Mariners-Angels, Dodgers-Astros, Diamondbacks-Rangers, and Brewers-Pirate. All of those places are pitchers parks and we are seeing controlled environments in Houston and Texas.
So who will be our one-offs tonight? I love Pete Alonso and JD Martinez. You can probably sneak in Christian Yelich in FanDuel or Joey Gallo in DraftKings. Both are good value even though I just mentioned that those ballparks are not very conducive to power numbers.
Here are my lineups in both DK and FD.
I am taking a different approach than our big payday on Saturday. Don't pay up for pitching but find a young prospect who can rack up some Ks even if he might give up 3 - 4 runs. Find a good stack (look no further than the Cardinals-Twins affair) and then polish things off with as many high-priced bats as you can fit.
Good luck and tomorrow should finally bring us some decent pitchers.