Super Five Picks - Week 10

Hopefully you have been heeding our advice the last three weeks. Even though we pretty much have broken even on all games, we are 10-4-1 with the Super Five selections. 4-1 last week! If you wagered $100 on each of our Super Five selections from Weeks 7 - 9, you would be up $545.46 after paying 10% juice to the sportsbook. That is a 36.36% profit. You can't even do that well in the stock market in such a short time span!

So here are our numbers for the first half of the season.

Super Five: 21-21-3
Against the Spread (all games): 66-62-4
Straight Up: 84-48
Over/Under: 60-69-3

Enough talk and let's get down to business!

Minnesota -1
Chicago -5.5
Jaguars -3.5
Jets -2.5
Cowboys +3

  • The Vikings have had a week off after flying back home from London. They are quietly sitting at 6-2 and have somewhat been flying under the radar. The defense is solid and of course well rested. The Redskins, on the other hand, had a physical battle last weekend in Seattle and we have discussed the Seattle hangover. Teams that play Seattle simply struggle the following week and having to fly back cross country means that the Redskins lose a day of preparation. While the Redskins are a decent team, they have several injuries to key offensive players and the Minnesota defense will simply be too overwhelming. The Vikings will win a close, low scoring game in the nation's capital. Prediction: Minnesota 20 - Washington 17.

  • DA BEARS are back! I can see Chris Farley and George Halas grinning right now! OK, well the Bears are 3-5 so they are not quite back but the future looks bright. They have a solid run game with Howard and Cohen and Trubisky has been anointed as the leader of this team. If he has a trajectory similar to Carson Wentz of the Eagles, then the Monsters of the Midway will be relevant again! The defense has done a fine job and in John Fox's third year as head coach, he is placing his defensive stamp on this team. The Packers come to town and usually giving up 5.5 points against a division rival who has dominated them in the Aaron Rodgers era is tough to do. However, there is no Discount Double Check and the Packers might be better off with Jake from State Farm instead of Brett Hundley behind center. The Bears will play a blue collar type of game by limiting the Packers offensive opportunities and running the ball down the Packers' throats. Prediction: Chicago 24 - Green Bay 13.

  • The Jaguars continue to be an underrated team. Baffling ... I know. The Jaguars for the longest time were cellar dwellers in the AFC but not any more. The defense is superb and is arguably the best in the league. The run game is also outstanding with Fournette as a top 5 RB. The Jags get another home game while the homeless Chargers travel cross country again. Giving up just 3.5 is easy given that the Jaguars have proven to beat quality teams by 10, 20, or even 30 points. They are 3rd only to the Eagles and Rams in point differential. There is one man who should be given credit for the Jags' recent success: Tom Coughlin. He is a brilliant football mind and the NY Giants were foolish to let him go after winning two Super Bowls for them. Coughlin's first stint as an NFL head coach started in Jacksonville where he built the team into a championship contender. Now he serves in the front office and has done an excellent job of making football relevant again in one of the smallest NFL markets. While the Chargers have talent, they don't have enough to beat Jacksonville. Expect another double digit victory for the Jaguars. Prediction: Jacksonville 24 - LA Chargers 14.

  • The NY Jets? Yes, the freaking NY Jets! This team, like Jacksonville has bounced back. While the Jets's chances of winning the AFC East are as good as the 49ers or Browns running the table, they have a good chance of earning a Wild Card spot. The defense is much improved and the offense has balance. Josh McCown has been tossed around from team to team in this league but hopefully he has found a home in the Big Apple which is not an easy market to play in. The Bucs, on the other hand, have a plethora of injuries and easily the worst pass defense in the NFL. Giving up just 2.5 points for a team that has held its own against a team that looks lost is a no-brainer. Prediction: NY Jets 27 - Tampa Bay 16.

  • We end with the Cowboys. After a slow start, the Cowboys are back to dominating the competition. Now, there is no Zeke and Dez might not play. Still, as long as Dak is behind center and the offensive line is healthy, the Cowboys will make things happen. The Falcons clearly miss Kyle Shanahan's play calling and maybe Shanahan wishes he were back in Atlanta! Julio Jones may not play which would neutralize Dallas' loss of talent at RB with Zeke's suspension. The Falcons are favored but have not done well at home by going 1-2 and having lost to a weak team like Miami. In fact, Atlanta is 1-4 in their last five games while Dallas is on a three game winning steak with an average margin of victory of 18.33 points. Clearly these are two teams going in opposite directions and we are getting 3 points for Dallas. This one is too easy and as my good friend Kevin says, "Points are for pussies!" Prediction: Dallas 27 - Atlanta 24.

There you have it! Just like last week, 4 early games and 1 late game. The late game should be an entertaining one and consider parlaying Dallas money line with the over after making money in the morning. It's never too late to hop on the money train!

Here are our predictions for the other 9 games.

Seattle 23 - Arizona 16 (We were awfully close here!)
Buffalo 24 - New Orleans 21 (Like Rodney Dangerfield, no respect for the Bills who are at home and having a decent season.)
Detroit 24 - Cleveland 14 (This could be one of the more boring games in the morning slate.)
Tennessee 24 - Cincinnati 17 (Expect Marcus Mariota to wake up from his first half slumber.)
Pittsburgh 27 - Indianapolis 20 (Spread is quite high here; Indy can keep pace but Steelers will win.)
LA Rams 27 - Houston 20 (Again, very high spread; Houston is still decent but the Rams have too much talent and of course healthier players.)
NY Giants 23 - San Francisco 23 (Oh boy ... two really shitty teams; maybe we get our first tie this year.)
New England 27 - Denver 21 (The Patriots should do fine here but historically have had trouble at Mile High; Broncos defense is still good.)
Carolina 21 - Miami 17 (Just like the Vikings, the Panthers have been flying under the radar at 6-3; still, giving up 9 points is too much and the Dolphins can keep games close.)

Good luck and we'll check in next week!