NFL Power Rankings - Week 14
- New England (10-2)
Current total GE number: 1.64 (last week: #2 at 1.26)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #4 at 1.15 (last week: #6 at 1.05 )
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #7 at 0.48 (last week: #13 at 0.21)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 13-3
Last Sunday was business as usual for Tom Brady and company with a 16 point victory over the Rams and the result was Brady's 201st victory which broke Peyton Manning's record for most victories (playoffs included) by an NFL QB and the new #1 team according to the GE model! The downer ... Gronkowski is out for the season. Since 2011, every time Gronkowski has been injured near the end of the season and couldn't help in the postseason, New England did not win the Super Bowl. The one year he was healthy the whole time was 2014 and New England won the Super Bowl. Given how uber talented Gronkowski is, this is not a coincidence. Expect the Patriots to finish with a strong record and perhaps get home field advantage but they could get upset at home by any one of the talented AFC playoff teams.
- Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Current total GE number: 1.34 (last week: #6 at 0.93)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #21 at -0.26 (last week: #24 at -0.50)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #1 at 1.60 (last week: #2 at 1.43)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 9-7
Interesting that Baltimore is now the #2 team in our rankings and that they play New England on Monday Night Football. If there is a team that can win in Foxborough, it's Baltimore. The defense is playing at a championship level and Joe Flacco looks like his 2012 playoff self after carving up the Dolphins last Sunday. I will be eagerly awaiting the MNF game this week!
- Dallas Cowboys (11-1)
Current total GE number: 1.20 (last week: #1 at 1.39)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #3 at 1.27 (last week: #2 at 1.50)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #18 at -0.06 (last week: #18 at -0.11)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 15-1
The Cowboys dropped 2 spots in our rankings but don't let that fool you: they are still a legit team. It's just that they were not able to produce offensively last Thursday like they usually do and that was mostly due to the amazing Minnesota defense. Still, the Cowboys just know how to win and we'll see what they can do in New York in a very important divisional matchup. Cowboys win and they get the division title and most likely a first round bye or home field advantage (based on what Seattle and Detroit do this weekend).
- Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1)
Current total GE number: 1.16 (last week: #13 at 0.68)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #12 at 0.29 (last week: #15 at -0.03)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #5 at 0.87 (last week: #6 at 0.72)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 12-3-1
Talk about a bounce back game! After scoring just 5 points in Tampa Bay, the Seahawks returned to the friendly confines of Century Link Stadium (well at least friendly to them but not the road team) and put up 40 points on Carolina while allowing just 7 points. This resulted in Seattle shooting up in the GE rankings. They look poised to challenging the Cowboys for the NFC title but a trip to Lambeau comes first. The Packers are playing well but have struggled against good competition. The game will really cold but the Seahawks have won in inclement weather before.
- Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
Current total GE number: 1.10 (last week: #3 at 1.07)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #23 at -0.40 (last week: #23 at -0.40)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #2 at 1.50 (last week: #1 at 1.47)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 10-6
The Vikings continue to choke at the end of their ball games. Clearly they will need to address the offensive line in the offseason. The defense is still solid and let's see what they do to Jacksonville who was stymied by the Broncos last week.
- Denver Broncos (8-4)
Current total GE number: 1.09 (last week: #4 at 0.99)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #19 at -0.19 (last week: #19 at -0.18)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #3 at 1.28 (last week: #4 at 1.17)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 11-5
Just like the Ravens and Vikings, we have another strong defense but so-so offense. The Broncos asserted its will over the Jaguars last week but this week will be a tougher test in Tennessee. The Titans are well rested after having a bye week and they run the ball well. The Broncos haven't been great at stopping the run but may teams opt to run the ball against the Broncos given that Denver has an amazing pass rush and secondary. In fact, the Broncos rank as #5 in run to pass ratio from opposing teams. Their match against the Titans should be one of the better games this week.
- Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1)
Current total GE number: 1.08 (last week: #5 at 1.15)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #17 at -0.03 (last week: #21 at -0.23)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #4 at 1.11 (last week: #3 at 1.17)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-7-1
The Cardinals finally won a game and needed that win in the worst way possible. Now they are a game behind the Redskins and own the tiebreaker in case they finish with the same record at the end of the regular season and are tied for the last playoff spot. Still, the Cardinals have to win out and need to win on the road. Luckily, they get a Miami team that has struggled lately. If Flacco can light up the Dolphins, you have to figure Palmer and his weapons should be able to do the same.
- Oakland Raiders (10-2)
Current total GE number: 1.08 (last week: #8 at 0.88)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #2 at 1.31 (last week: #4 at 1.13)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #21 at -0.23 (last week: #21 at -0.25)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 12-4
Blame the Raiders defense for not having a higher ranking. It's actually a good defense and Khalil Mack is a legit candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Still, the Raiders are on the verge of truly separating themselves from the pack if they win in Kansas City. Derek Carr is the favorite right now to win the NFL MVP award so a strong showing on Thursday Night Football in frigid conditions will go a long way for him.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
Current total GE number: 0.84 (last week: #14 at 0.66)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #9 at 0.49 (last week: #9 at 0.50)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #9 at 0.35 (last week: #14 at 0.17)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 10-6
It's safe to say that the Steelers are in the driver seat to making a return trip to the postseason but hey need to stay healthy. They will also need to beat Baltimore for the AFC North division title since both wild card spots may go to the AFC West. The Steelers made the Giants look like pretenders and we'll see if they can do the same to the Bills.
- Atlanta Falcons (7-5)
Current total GE number: 0.77 (last week: #10 at 0.80)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #1 at 1.73 (last week: #1 at 1.71)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #29 at -0.96 (last week: #29 at -0.91)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 11-5
If the Falcons miss the playoffs this year, all fingers will be pointed towards the defense. They simply cannot close games out and that's a travesty given how talented this offense is. Oddly, head coach Dan Quinn was the architect of one of the best defenses in NFL history: the 2013 Seattle Seahawks. The Falcons get the worst offense in football this week. If they can't stop them, kiss the playoffs goodbye.
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
Current total GE number: 0.70 (last week: #11 at 0.78)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #13 at 0.16 (last week: #13 at 0.04)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #6 at 0.54 (last week: #5 at 0.74)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 12-4
I love this team. They are gritty and well balanced. Their ranking is low since they don't exactly light up the score board with insane stats but beating Oakland this week will surely given them a boost. With home games against Oakland and Denver, the Chiefs can be in a position to win the AFC West and earn a first round bye. This team is due for a Super Bowl run.
- Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Current total GE number: 0.56 (last week: #7 at 0.88)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #8 at 0.62 (last week: #8 at 0.64)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #17 at -0.06 (last week: #11 at 0.24)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 10-6
Tough loss last week in Oakland. They looked great midway through the 3rd quarter and then the Raiders offense just bowled them over. Now the Bills have to face another strong offense: the Pittsburgh Steelers. I like Tyrod Taylor but he may not be the answer for this team.
- Washington Redskins (6-5-1)
Current total GE number: 0.49 (last week: #12 at 0.77)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #6 at 0.97 (last week: #5 at 1.08)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #25 at -0.47 (last week: #22 at -0.30)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 9-6-1
If Kirk Cousins and company wish to make it back to the postseason, beating the Eagles in Philly is paramount. The Eagles play well at home but something tells me the Skins will be ready for this one.
- New Orleans Saints (5-7)
Current total GE number: 0.43 (last week: #9 at 0.83)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #5 at 1.05 (last week: #3 at 1.27)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #27 at -0.62 (last week: #23 at -0.44)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 6-10
What a shame that we won't get to see this team in the postseason. Such a dynamic offense and the defense has improved but the Saints just can't put it all together for one game. They get another tough matchup in Tampa Bay, a team that has two more wins than the Saints. These two teams see each other twice so maybe the Saints can go on a little run.
- Detroit Lions (8-4)
Current total GE number: 0.37 (last week: #18 at 0.01)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #11 at 0.35 (last week: #11 at 0.15)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #16 at 0.02 (last week: #20 at -0.14)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 11-5
OK, I think I will take back my comment last week that the Lions were all smoke and mirrors. This team just knows how to win and could even get a 1st round bye (the first time since 1991 or when Barry Sanders was a young buck). Matt Stafford has shown great leadership and in many ways reminds me of Peyton Manning. He is a true field general and the Lions should take care of business against the Bears.
- Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
Current total GE number: 0.26 (last week: #15 at 0.54)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #20 at -0.20 (last week: #17 at -0.08)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #8 at 0.46 (last week: #7 at 0.62)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 7-9
Stick a fork in the Eagles. A 1-6 road record is pathetic. They were outscored by 32-14 points to the struggling Bengals. After a hot a start, the Eagles have shown to be a below average team. They may get a couple more wins but maybe this team will be more consistent next year.
- Tennessee Titans (6-6)
Current total GE number: 0.23 (last week: #17 at 0.21)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #7 at 0.70 (last week: #7 at 0.66)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #26 at -0.48 (last week: #24 at -0.45)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
This is a well rested team and if they wish to win the AFC South title and make their first postseason appearance in 8 years, they will need to prove they can hang with the AFC's elite. That starts with a game at home against the defending Super Bowl Champions: the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs follow so it won't be easy but quarterback Marcus Mariota has matured this year.
- San Diego Chargers (5-7)
Current total GE number: 0.14 (last week: #16 at 0.28)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #16 at- 0.03 (last week: #14 at 0.02)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #13 at 0.17 (last week: #10 at 0.26)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
Last week I dubbed the Chargers as the "Kings of Almost" and that rang true again last week. Like Vikings, their polar opposite in terms of weather, they just can't catch a break. Now they travel cross country to Carolina where quarterback Philip Rivers goes back to his roots (played college ball at NC State). The Panthers are having a season to forget and got torched by the Raiders and Seahawks so I think Rivers can do the same.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Current total GE number: 0.12 (last week: #19 at -0.03)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #18 at -0.09 (last week: #20 at -0.18)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #11 at 0.22 (last week: #15 at 0.16)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 9-7
This has to be one of the underrated teams this year. They are actually poised to win the NFC South and they have a great road record of 5-1. With several of the upper echelon QBs reaching their mid to late 30s, Jameis Winston (along with a few others) are poised to take the reins as part of the NFL QB elite. It helps to have a stud WR like Mike Evans and a defense that has turned it on lately.
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-7-1)
Current total GE number: 0.09 (last week: #21 at -0.17)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #15 at 0.04 (last week: #16 at -0.06)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #15 at 0.05 (last week: #18 at -0.11)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 6-9-1
Nice bounce back game for the Bengals. Playing the Browns next should help to ease any tension that might be occurring in the Bengals clubhouse. It would be nice to see Jeremy Hill to finally earn more than 2 yards per carry!
- Green Bay Packers (6-6)
Current total GE number: -0.27 (last week: #23 at -0.38)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #14 at 0.14 (last week: #12 at 0.15)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #22 at -0.41 (last week: #28 at -0.53)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 6-10
Ever since Aaron Rodgers called out his teammates, the Packers now have a 2 game winning streak and are back to .500. Still, making the postseason won't be easy with a crowded NFC field. What also won't be easy is exorcising their demons against the Seahawks. This game will be frigid so whichever team can win the war in the trenches should come out victorious. Injuries to key players on the Packers defensive front seven certainly doesn't help.
- New York Giants (8-4)
Current total GE number: -0.54 (last week: #22 at -0.36)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #26 at -0.79 (last week: #25 at -0.66)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #10 at 0.25 (last week: #8 at 0.30)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
Smoke and mirrors I tell you! The Giants finally play a good team last week and get beat by double digits. Expect the same thing to happen against the best team in football right now: the Dallas Cowboys.
- Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
Current total GE number: -0.55 (last week: #28 at -1.17)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #10 at 0.42 (last week: #11 at 0.20)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #30 at -0.97 (last week: #30 at -1.37)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
Just when I was ready to write this team off, they destroy the Jets on the road and Andrew Luck looked like his old self. Now this team is back to even and I mean that literally: 6-6 overall record, 3-3 home record, 3-3 road record, and 311 points scored with 311 points allowed. The Colts are in the driver seat to making the postseason and the offense is completely healthy. Their next 4 games should be fun to watch, especially Week 16 in Oakland.
- Miami Dolphins (7-5)
Current total GE number: -0.56 (last week: #20 at -0.08)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #22 at -0.39 (last week: #18 at -0.14)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #19 at -0.17 (last week: #15 at 0.06)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 8-8
This might be a sinking ship. They flirted with success a few weeks ago but there are just too many injuries here. If Carson Palmer lights them up like Joe Flacco did, forget about the postseason.
- Chicago Bears (3-9)
Current total GE number: -0.84 (last week: #27 at -1.17)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #25 at -0.61 (last week: #26 at -0.70)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #20 at -0.23 (last week: #25 at -0.46)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 4-12
Nice win last week but beating the 49ers at home is one thing and beating the division leader Detroit Lions on the road is another. If you happen to still be alive in your Eliminator Pool and haven't picked the Lions yet, do so now! They are 5-1 at home and the Bears are 0-6 on the road. I rest my case!
- Houston Texans (6-6)
Current total GE number: -0.89 (last week: #25 at -0.89)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #28 at -1.10 (last week: #29 at -1.12)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #12 at 0.21 (last week: #12 at 0.23)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 7-9
We get another sinking ship in the Texans. They are really feeling the loss of defensive end JJ Watt and quarterback Brock Osweiler has proven to be a bust so far. The Texans can rectify things by beating the Colts and Titans but with both of those games on the road and Luck and Mariota playing so well, something tells me the Texans won't be making a return trip to the postseason.
- Carolina Panthers (4-8)
Current total GE number: -0.92 (last week: #24 at -0.42)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #24 at -0.47 (last week: #22 at -0.30)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #24 at -0.45 (last week: #19 at -0.12)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 4-12
OK, the torture for the Panthers will all be over in 4 weeks. This has to be one of the worst Super Bowl hangovers we have ever witnessed. The good news is that they will get everyone back healthy for next year and they will get a strong first round pick in the draft. This team is ripe for a strong comeback next year. Besides, it seems that this team does well every odd year (12-4 in 2013 and 15-1 in 2015).
- Los Angeles Rams (4-8)
Current total GE number: -1.45 (last week: #26 at -1.06)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #32 at -1.50 (last week: #32 at -1.33)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #14 at 0.05 (last week: #9 at 0.27)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 5-11
Is it me or are you perplexed as to why the Rams just gave Jeff Fisher a contract extension? This is his 5th year with the Rams and they still have not had a winning season. Of course it hasn't helped that the 49ers, Seahawks, and Cardinals have been Super Bowl contenders during that time frame. Still, with the Rams about to have one of their worst seasons in the Jeff Fisher era, one has to wonder why he was retained.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
Current total GE number: -1.57 (last week: #29 at -1.53)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #29 at -1.13 (last week: #28 at -1.00)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #23 at -0.45 (last week: #27 at -0.53)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 2-14
Just move this team to another city. The good people of the city of Jacksonville don't need to see this debacle take place every week.
- New York Jets (3-9)
Current total GE number: -2.03 (last week: #30 at -1.64)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #31 at -1.31 (last week: #30 at -1.13)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #28 at -0.72 (last week: #26 at -0.51)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 3-13
Yep, this team has packed it in after just playing a terrible game at home on Monday Night Football. A new QB is needed for this team with all of the other nice weapons they have on offense.
- San Francisco 49ers (1-11)
Current total GE number: -2.40 (last week: #31 at -2.38)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #27 at -0.97 (last week: #27 at -0.86)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #31 at -1.43 (last week: #32 at -1.52)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 2-14
This team is not going any where but oddly may get a win this week against the Jets. Colin Kaepernick had an awful game but in his defense, the weather was terrible and the 49ers defense could not stop the run in a game where running was crucial. I think the 49ers will be more competitive this week.
- Cleveland Browns (0-12)
Current total GE number: -2.66 (last week: #32 at -2.65)
Offensive GE Rank and Number: #30 at -1.19 (last week: #31 at -1.20)
Defensive GE Rank and Number: #32 at -1.47 (last week: #31 at -1.45)
Expected Record by end of Regular Season: 0-16
OK, the Browns have just 4 more games to go before they can wipe this season away from their memories. They are almost destined to become the 2nd 0-16 team in NFL history. I don't know how you fix this team. It's really sad.