NFL Power Rankings - End of 2016 Regular Season
Another regular season is now in the books and as the dust settles, the top team according to our algorithm is no surprise: New England Patriots. Amazing how they keep pulling this off even though this is the 16th straight winning season for the Patriots. No Tom Brady for the 1st 4 games and no Rob Gronkowski for the last 7 games but all the Patriots do is keep winning.
Based on the GE model, the Patriots are extremely well balanced. They have a GE number of greater than 1 for both offense and defense. Assuming that the data is normally distributed, this means that the Patriots' offense and defense each rank in the top 10 - 15% among all 32 NFL teams. In fact the Patriots offense is #2 and the defense is #3 based on the GE model. They also have home field advantage where the Patriots are virtually unbeatable in the postseason (Tom Brady is 15-3 at Foxborough in his postseason career). Only a good pass rush can get to these Patriots (2008 and 2012 Ravens and 2009 Jets are the only teams to beat New England at Foxborough in the postseason during the Belichick/Brady era). The only decent pass rush remaining in the playoff field belongs to the New York Giants and they have beaten Patriots twice in the Super Bowl. Can the G-men do it a for a 3rd time?!
The other first round bye teams rank pretty high with the Arizona Cardinals being an anomaly. The high ranking could be due to the ass whooping they put on some of their weak opponents this year. That definitely pads their stats.
The Falcons have an amazing offense but their defense is really lackluster. They should be fine for winning their first game but a game at Dallas will be tough (assuming the Cowboys don't get upset in their first playoff game; Romo won't be starting!). The Chiefs are a well rounded team but beating New England in Foxborough will be a tough task. Green Bay and Pittsburgh are entering the postseason hot but the path to the Super Bowl won't be easy. However, if there were two teams that can knock off the #1 and 2 seeds in their conference, it's the Packers and Steelers.
The Raiders ranking is now inflated with Carr out (GE model is based on past performance and hence it's more explanatory than predictable) but they should be OK against Houston which ranks pretty low for a playoff team. Detroit and Miami also rank low and could see an early exit in the postseason.
I think that about covers it. The rankings are below and we'll follow up with a preview of all wild card games and playoff predictions later this week.
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New England (14-2)
GE-Total: #1 at 2.43
GE-Offense: #2 at 1.33
GE-Defense: #3 at 1.10 -
Atlanta (11-5)
GE-Total: #2 at 1.62
GE-Offense: #1 at 2.15
GE-Defense: #26 at -0.52 -
Dallas (13-3)
GE-Total: #3 at 1.26
GE-Offense: #4 at 0.92
GE-Defense: #12 at 0.34 -
Arizona (7-8-1)
GE-Total: #4 at 1.10
GE-Offense: #15 at 0.13
GE-Defense: #5 at 0.97 -
Kansas City (12-4)
GE-Total: #5 at 1.07
GE-Offense: #12 at 0.30
GE-Defense: #7 at 0.77 -
Pittsburgh (11-5)
GE-Total: #6 at 1.01
GE-Offense: #9 at 0.61
GE-Defense: #11 at 0.41 -
Oakland (12-4)
GE-Total: #7 at 0.94
GE-Offense: #5 at 0.91
GE-Defense: #16 at 0.03 -
Seattle (10-5-1)
GE-Total: #8 at 0.90
GE-Offense: #13 at 0.22
GE-Defense: #8 at 0.69 -
Minnesota (8-8)
GE-Total: #9 at 0.87
GE-Offense: #20 at -0.26
GE-Defense: #2 at 1.13 -
Baltimore (8-8)
GE-Total: #10 at 0.80
GE-Offense: #18 at -0.20
GE-Defense: #4 at 1.00 -
Green Bay (10-6)
GE-Total: #11 at 0.65
GE-Offense: #6 at 0.79
GE-Defense: #18 at -0.14 -
Denver (9-7)
GE-Total: #12 at 0.56
GE-Offense: #24 at -0.61
GE-Defense: #1 at 1.17 -
Philadelphia (7-9)
GE-Total: #13 at 0.53
GE-Offense: #17 at -0.03
GE-Defense: #10 at 0.55 -
Buffalo (7-9)
GE-Total: #14 at 0.32
GE-Offense: #8 at 0.72
GE-Defense: #22 at -0.40 -
Cincinnati (6-9-1)
GE-Total: #15 at 0.31
GE-Offense: #16 at 0.12
GE-Defense: #13 at 0.19 -
New Orleans (7-9)
GE-Total: #16 at 0.27
GE-Offense: #3 at 1.21
GE-Defense: #30 at -0.94 -
Washington (8-7-1)
GE-Total: #17 at 0.24
GE-Offense: #7 at 0.76
GE-Defense: #25 at -0.52 -
New York Giants (11-5)
GE-Total: #18 at 0.08
GE-Offense: #25 at -0.75
GE-Defense: #6 at 0.82 -
Tennessee (9-7)
GE-Total: #19 at -0.04
GE-Offense: #11 at 0.36
GE-Defense: #23 at -0.41 -
Tampa Bay (9-7)
GE-Total: #20 at -0.19
GE-Offense: #21 at -0.36
GE-Defense: #14 at 0.17 -
San Diego (5-11)
GE-Total: #21 at -0.33
GE-Offense: #22 at -0.38
GE-Defense: #15 at 0.05 -
Houston (9-7)
GE-Total: #22 at -0.346
GE-Offense: #29 at -0.92
GE-Defense: #9 at 0.57 -
Detroit (9-7)
GE-Total: #23 at -0.351
GE-Offense: #14 at 0.14
GE-Defense: #24 at -0.49 -
Carolina (6-10)
GE-Total: #24 at -0.46
GE-Offense: #23 at -0.41
GE-Defense: #17 at -0.05 -
Indianapolis (8-8)
GE-Total: #25 at -0.51
GE-Offense: #10 at 0.38
GE-Defense: #29 at -0.89 -
Miami (10-6)
GE-Total: #26 at -0.58
GE-Offense: #19 at -0.25
GE-Defense: #20 at -0.33 -
Jacksonville (3-13)
GE-Total: #27 at -1.14
GE-Offense: #26 at -0.76
GE-Defense: #21 at -0.38 -
Chicago (3-13)
GE-Total: #28 at -1.66
GE-Offense: #27 at -0.84
GE-Defense: #28 at -0.82 -
New York Jets (5-11)
GE-Total: #29 at -1.95
GE-Offense: #31 at -1.30
GE-Defense: #27 at -0.65 -
Los Angeles (4-12)
GE-Total: #30 at -2.24
GE-Offense: #32 at -2.00
GE-Defense: #19 at -0.24 -
San Francisco (2-14)
GE-Total: #31 at -2.45
GE-Offense: #28 at -0.89
GE-Defense: #31 at -1.56 -
Cleveland (1-15)
GE-Total: #32 at -2.71
GE-Offense: #30 at -1.08
GE-Defense: #32 at -1.63