Welcome back readers! My apologies for the long dormancy with my NBA posts. Life has been busy but a good busy. Also, the NBA has been kind of weird with so many sudden changes to the lineups now that several teams are packing it in for the season and some are employing load management to keep their star players fresh for the postseason.
I will keep this short and simple. There are five NBA games tonight and I will share my thoughts on how to wager on each of those games and potential lineups for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I hope to start giving advice on prop bets since that seems to be gaining traction but I will need to do some statistical modeling before I go down that path.
Here are my thoughts on how to place action on the NBA games tonight.
PHI@DET: Take DET +9.5. PHI should win but DET is not that bad. DET has lost by double digits just once in the last 18 games (since NBA All Star Break). Compare that to 13 double digit losses from Jan 1 - Feb 16 (a span of 25 games). Cade Cunningham is a star in the making and he has a solid supporting cast with good size.
CLE@ATL: Stay away. This is a make up game from Dec 19. Both teams need rest after playing last night and they are destined for the play-in tournament. They also have injuries to work out. Wouldn't be surprised to see some load management here.
MIL@BKN: Total slap in the face (Big Willie Style!) for MIL to be an underdog to a team seeded 8th. Yes, BKN looks better but they still have chemistry issues. MIL is the defending champions and looked like it 2 nights ago after winning an intense battle on the road in Philly. With Lopez starting, the band is back together. We are bound to see a repeat of last year's NBA Finals. I will gladly take the points with MIL.
LAC@CHI: Call me crazy but I think LAC can win this game with PG13 back. Most teams would slide out of playoff contention when a key player misses significant time (look at WAS, IND, LAL, and POR) but LAC has held steady. That was an impressive comeback by LAC 2 nights ago and that was solely attributed to PG13. CHI is 5-11 in its last 16 games with 12 of those games on the road. They are exhausted while LAC is rejuvenated. Take LAC moneyline.
LAL@UTH: I know LAL sucks and they suck even more without LeBron but do they really suck so bad to be a 13.5 pt dog? LAL has only lost by double digits 5 times out of the 20 times LeBron was inactive this season. Those 5 big losses were to teams playing well. UTH is not playing well with 5 straight losses and going 6-9 in the last 15 games. Like CHI, UTH is tired having played 12 of last 18 games on the road (dating back to NBA All Break) and just finishing a 6 game road trip. UTH wins and probably by 10 but not more than 13.5 points.
As for sample DFS lineups, check out what I have below. This uses my model and also some intuition. The late night hammer with a Utah stack against the lackluster Lakers seems like the road to profitability tonight!
PG: Ayo Dosunmu
SG: Caris Levert
SF: Royce O'Neale
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Rudy Gobert
G: Khris Middleton
F: Lamar Stevens
UTIL: Malik Monk
PG: Seth Curry
PG: Cade Cunningham
SG: Donovan Mitchell
SG: Ayo Dosunmu
SF: Khris Middleton
SF: Caris LeVert
PF: Kevin Durant
PF: Royce O'Neale
C: Rudy Gobert