Yelp! Another crazy day of NBA playoffs yesterday. Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant both deep sixed so many lineups with their 3x scores. You can't commit so much salary to supposedly stud players and expect to reach the cash line if they are not getting at least 5x value. We can do all of the analysis we want but at this juncture, it makes sense to take a different approach.
For today, I will throw the model out the window. Instead, the focus will be on consistency. There are certain players in Round 1 who, for the most part, have shined. For example, Chris Paul has had a great stat line in his series against New Orleans. Check out his FanDuel stats below.
Game 1: 63.4 points
Game 2: 42.2 points
Game 3: 56.8 points
With Devin Booker out for a while and Phoenix having the opportunity to go up 3-1 in the series, there is no reason why CP3 can't experience the same success he has had so far. Pay up for that man. He will make you money!
And you know who else you should pay up for? DeAndre Ayton. He pairs well with CP3 and together they will get Phoenix to the next round while Booker continues to heal. We might as well throw in Jae Crowder who is cheap and should earn a fantasy score in the mid-20s.
Jordan Poole and Draymond Green are two other starters who have experienced some consistency this postseason. The last time Poole dropped below 30 fantasy points is March 1. 5x value seems to be getting the job done for DFS these days and Poole is playing against a team with a weak backcourt defense and no depth. Poole is priced up but he should earn a fantasy score in the high 30s quite easily. Green is a nice pairing with Poole given that he is a great facilitator and shines when the Warriors are doing well. In fact, Green has surpassed 40 fantasy points 3 times in the last 9 games. At a salary of just $6700 on FanDuel, I will take it! Lastly, like Phoenix, Golden State smells blood in the water. The Warriors are ready to move onto Round 2 and potentially face the Suns in the Western Conference Championship later this spring.
We are halfway through our roster construction and there are two frontcourt players I love a lot but they barely get noticed. Those two are Bogdan Bogdanovic and Bobby Portis. Portis seems to be the main beneficiary with Middleton out and there is no reason why he can't be successful again today. The Bulls frontcourt defense is non-existent so Portis should feast. Except for Game 2, he has surpassed 30 fantasy points in his other two games in Round 1. Same can be said about Bogdanovic. Except for a poor Game 1 performance against Miami, he has been superb in his last two games and was also a significant contributor against Cleveland in the play-in game. It also helps that Tyler Herro and Patrick Williams are both terrible defenders and the two players most likely defending Bogdanovic and Portis, respectively. Don't be surprised if Bogdanovic's and Portis' combine for at least 80 fantasy points. With a total salary of just $12,300 on DraftKings and $13,200 on FanDuel, we are looking at tremendous value.
Lastly, we will go cheap at SG. Roll with Max Strus and Delon Wright. You want to talk about consistency, look no further than those two. Given that each of them are pretty much a guarantee for 20 fantasy points with salaries of barely above $4K on FanDuel (similar pricing on DraftKings), we will take the safe path they both provide. Not sexy but if you want to win, sometimes you need the grinders on your roster.
Here are sample lineups for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Delon Wright
SF: Max Strus
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Bobby Portis
G: Bogdan Bogdanovic
F: Draymond Green
UTIL: Jimmy Butler
PG: Chris Paul, Jordan Poole
SG: Max Strus, Delon Wright
SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jae Crowder
PF: Bobby Portis, Draymond Green
C: DeAndre Ayton
Enjoy the NBA action today and good luck!