Ugh ... what an ugly night last night was. I wonder if these players are getting bored, tired, or both. Who knows. Giannis didn't crack 40 fantasy points which is extremely rare. DeMar DeRozan was incredible in Game 2 but only managed 23 fantasy points. If you had CP3 and Ayton, good for you. Both were low owned and both popped off. Most models didn't project them doing as well as they did last night. Sometimes you just have to dust yourself off and try again!
So what does the analysis indicate about today? Check out the link below. You will also find the top 10 optimal lineups for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Also, here are two sample lineups. Both are the top optimals from the spreadsheet above.
PG: Tyrese Maxey
SG: Reggie Bullock
SF: Gary Trent Jr.
PF: Dorian Finney-Smith
C: Joel Embiid
G: Mike Conley
F: Bojan Bogdanovic
UTIL: Dillon Brooks
PG: Tyrese Maxey, Luka Doncic
SG: Reggie Bullock, Desmond Bane
SF: Gary Trent, Dillon Brooks
PF: Bojan Bogdanovic, OG Anunoby
C: Joel Embiid
As for narratives, check out the bullet points below.
- The model loves both Doncic and Embiid as it should since they were incredible this year. I bet if I were to go back and look at all of the lineups I shared throughout the NBA season, Doncic and Embiid were most likely featured every time they played. How often will you get Doncic under $10K and Embiid under $11K? Also, both smell blood in the water with Dallas surprisingly up 2-1 without the services of Doncic and firmly controlling the home court advantage while Embiid jabbed a dagger in the heart of the Toronto faithful with an impressive turnaround 3 pointer as time expired in overtime during Game 3. I think they both have statement games as they prepare to move onto Round 2.
- If we are rostering both Doncic and Embiid on FanDuel, we will need to be careful with how we spend the rest of our salary. The good news is that we get 4 games today instead of 3 so there should be plenty of mid-priced options. That is where we will look to Maxey, Trent, Anunoby, Bullock, and Bogdanovic. All of them are under $7K on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should play 40 or more minutes. Also, they typically attempt at least 10 FGs. If the shots are falling, we are going to see really good value from that group.
- We will want a piece of the Memphis starting 5 given that they have the highest implied point total and should be ready to deliver the death blow to Minnesota. What better way to go back to Memphis up 3-1 and finish off the Timberwolves in front of the Grizzlies home crowd early next week?! I love Ja Morant but I just don't see him cracking 50 fantasy points. However, Bane and Brooks each play high minutes and attempt plenty of shots. Just keep an eye on Brooks' injury status. If he is ruled out later in the day, we will need to pivot to another Grizzles player and perhaps upgrade at other positions. Memphis plays in the last game today so let's hope we get confirmation of Brooks' status by the early afternoon.
- I am doing a complete fade of the Brooklyn-Boston game. Both are high priced and I can see Boston slowing the pace down, especially with the return of Robert Williams. If Boston wishes to go up 3-0 on Brooklyn, they will need to do so with defense. Good for Boston but bad for daily fantasy. Stay away.
OK, you have the information you need to make this a successful NBA DFS day! Don't get cute here. Play the big names such as Doncic and Embiid and grab starters who will see high minutes and usage. Good luck!