It has been a while since I last published an article for NBA DFS. For those who know me well, this time of year is quite crazy. I work as an educator so the start of the school year is always intense but it's even more intense due to 100% remote learning. It hasn't been easy putting your curriculum online but it's getting done! Still, I have been playing NBA DFS but not with any results to write home about. Things got kind of weird with the walkout and one had to wonder if the NBA would just fold its season. I am glad that basketball is back and that presents some nice money making opportunities.
We were off last night by ignorning Kyle Lowry and rostering Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. However, we were spot on with the Boston due of Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown and last's hero OG Anunoby. We just have to keep plugging away until we takedown a tournament and I believe the stars are lining up for us tonight. Instead of running my model, I will simply use some logic and the eye test. Plus, I am sure the model will favor Harden and/or Giannis and I personally don't think either will reach value tonight.
We will start with a Milwaukee - Miami stack. That game should stay close and the other game could be a blowout pitting a well rested Lakers team against an undersized and worn out Rockets squad. Goran Dragic is a must at PG. All he does is return at least 6x value almost every game. He is reasonably priced on both DK and FD. Pair him with another Heat starter: Jae Crowder. You could go with Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo but we want to save some money for Anthony Davis. Tyler Herro is another nice player for Miami. He comes off the bench but typically logs 30 minutes with a decent usage percentage. On the other side, we will leave out Giannis and Wesley Matthews who has an awfully low usage percentage but will definitely run with Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez. Combined those three players can get us close to 100 FD points. The Miami stack can get close that total as well.
So now we need 3 more players. Look no further than the man on the cover of this article. There are several studs to choose from but there is a reason why Anthony Davis is the most expensive option on FanDuel. The Houston frontcourt is terribly undersized, lacks depth, and is exhausted after a grueling 7 game series against OKC. AD, like LeBron James, is well rested and highly motivated to get a ring and the Lakers will assert themselves tonight. You could roster LeBron but the depth at PF on both DK and FD is very limited. We finish off our lineup with two Rockets players: Eric Gordon and Robert Covington. While the Lakers D is very good, someone has to score points for Houston. Of course there are the two starts on Houston but Russell Westbrook and James Harden are both very expensive and have both underperformed. The fact that Houston runs a very tight 8-man rotation with most of the minutes going to the starters means plenty of playing time for Gordon and Covington and both are cheap. They should hit value tonight. There is also PJ Tucker but his usage is low.
If we can get 60 - 70 FD points from AD and a combined 60 FD points from our Gordon/Covington stack, we should score somewhere between 310 - 320 FD points which should get us above the cash line. You can do a similar roster on DraftKings. See the images below for sample lineups on both DK and FD.
I feel really good about this lineup. We have a stud in AD and all other players are priced at 5K or higher. There are no punts so we should not have any duds. Sometimes intuition instead of modeling is the way to go and let's hope that is the path to the promised land tonight! Good luck and enjoy the start to the 3-day weekend!