NBA DFS Lineup (8/20/2020)
OK, successful night with the NBA on Day 3 of the playoffs! Maybe we have a good handle of the BKN/TOR, UTA/DEN, PHI/BOS, and DAL/LAC games since we also cashed two days but did not with the other 4 matchups on Tuesday. Who knows. As long as we cash, we are happy!
So how do we get a better read with the MIA/IND, OKC/HOU, ORL/MIL, and POR/LAL games? There is a lot of star power but be careful. Overspending on LeBron, Giannis Lillard, and Harden could doom your lineups if none of those players reach at least 6x value. Notice I didn't list Anthony Davis with those players. More on him later.
When building a lineup for Game 2 of these 1st round matchups, we really should consider what happened during Game 1. There are several cheap options who were on the court for at least 30 minutes and had at least 20% usage. That is where we will start. For example, Goran Dragic is one such player. So is Malcolm Brogdon. Both point guards are integral to their team's success. Eric Gordon, Gary Clark (if Aaron Gordon is out again), and Steven Adams are also starters who will a lot of floor time and be heavily involved in their team's offensive plans. Now we start paying up for the stars. Jimmy Butler had a great game on Tuesday and so did T.J. Warren. Those two are the #1 scoring options for their teams and should shine.
For our last two spots on FanDuel, I love Anthony David and Dennis Schroeder. Why? Because all year Portland has struggled at defending power forwards and Houston has had simialr struggles against the top scoring bench option. Schroeder did not shoot the ball well on Tuesday so let's hope that is just some rust he is shaking off. Davis played well during Game 1 and if the Lakers want to avoid a 2-0 deficit to the 8th seeded team, they really need to unleash Davis. He is capable of breaking the slate so we will roll with him as our stud.
You can probably build something similar in DraftKings. Again, go with AD and Schroeder. If we take out Butler and Adams and use Jeff Green, we now have a DK roster very similar to our FD roster. Nothing is better than killing it in both DK and FD!
Down below is a link to my NBA DFS Analysis for the 2020 Playoffs. Just click on the sheet for today to see the inputs and outputs for the predictive model I built. You can also click on the sheets for previous slates to see how the model compared to the actual results. You will find that the model is quite accurate for several players.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13_Du2D82RzJszdeYjJk887yYctzEogi3Xq602ciHw9M/edit?usp=sharing
Also, here are my sample lineups.
We are somewhat playing with fire by fading all of the other top level talent but if you want to take down a GPP, don't follow the pack. Blaze your own trail, just not with Lillard! The Brow and the rest of the players we discussed will get you to the promised land.