Happy Hour / Lunch Hour NBA DFS (Feb. 27, 2022)
Well last night was better than the last two nights. Hopefully you cashed using my model's outputs. Trae Young was a beast as we expected and Tre Jones well exceeded value! DeMar DeRozan started off slow but eventually pulled it together near the end of the game. His streak of 8 games with 35+ points and shooting at least 50% from the field came to a close but he will forever be etched in the record books for pulling off a feat that even the great scorers like Jordan and Bryant were never able to accomplish. Jokic was a head scratcher. He did get us the raw points but was below 5x value. No way can you take down a GPP when a player priced over $11K underperforms. Bobby Portis and Bam Adebayo, however, did very well. Too bad we didn't have more exposure to them.
As always, we forget about the previous day after reflecting on it and just move on to the next day. Check out the spreadsheet below for today's NBA DFS outputs based on my model. Remember these outputs can be used for both DK and FD.
Also, here are the top 5 optimal lineups for DK and FD using my model.
Now, it's time to share some of the finer details at each position. My focus will be on FD when discussing fantasy scores and salaries but my analysis can also be applied to DK.
PG: Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham
On a short slate with really just three studs (Doncic, LeBron, and Jokic), you will need at least one of those guys to anchor your lineups. Even if none of the $10K+ players hits 6x value, not having the raw points will ruin your day when one of them breaks the 50 DK/FD point plateau. So which one do we go with or do we take 2 of those 3? Jokic worries me since it's a BTB and a road game. There have been 8 times this season Jokic has played in a game without any days of rest and his FG% is down while his turnovers are up. Same thing happened last year. He is also not as effective on the road. As for LeBron, just twice he cracked 60 FD points since the start of January. In those two games, he had an average of 6 combined blocks/steals. Those stats are not easily replicable. Meanwhile Doncic seems to hit 60 DK/FD points on a regular basis and does so by averaging 30 ppg, 10 apg, and 10 rbg. He is a triple double machine and don't let his off night two nights ago against Utah deter you. He should have a great game against the Warriors tonight.
Cunningham is one you should have a lot of exposure to. He faces a team that ranks in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency while playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the league. For the last two weeks, Cunningham has averaged 18 FGs while playing at 33% usage. And you get all of that for just $6300 on FD! Did I mention that Cunningham is going up against a weak defense that plays at a fast pace? Cunningham is now the face of the Pistons after they drafted him first overall last year so he will do all he can to finish this season on a high note and potentially win the Rookie of the Year award.
SG: CJ McCollum and Jalen Green
Since the start of February, both McCollum and Green have been incredibly consistent. For McCollum, his consistency is tied to his recent trade to New Orleans. We are getting him for under $9K on FD but he plays like a $10K player. His usage is through the roof at 31% while he has attempted at least 21 field goals four times in the last 6 games. McCollum is also shooting the ball well cracking 50% from the field four times. Perhaps a change of scenery was all he needed. After all, he was in Lillard's shadow during his entire time in Portland and now McCollum is the man in the Big Easy (until Williamson returns). The Lakers have a decent defense but McCollum had a great game in Phoenix two nights ago so something tells me he will be ready for the Lakers in LA tonight.
As for Green, what a great game he had on Friday! Like Cunningham, he is starting to come into his own as he nears the end of his rookie campaign. Kevin Porter is questionable so maybe the Rockets lean on Green more to run the offense. While I don't expect Green to crack 40 DK/FD points tonight, he can reach 30 quite easily, especially against a Clippers defense that has been torched for at least 120 points 8 times since the start of January. We are getting Green for under $5K on FD and it won't be too long when he is hovering in the $6K range should he continue to grow as an NBA scorer during the final weeks of the NBA regular season.
SF: Robert Covington and Saddiq Bey
These two picks are purely about matchups and ownership. Most likely Covington's ownership will be under 5%. Remember what I have said about strong bench players facing the Rockets? Did you see what Chuma Okeke did to Houston last Friday? Covington is a defensive stalwart so we don't need him to score all that much as long as he gets us blocks and steals. The Rockets offense is horrible (well so is there defense and everything else!) so Covington could collect 7 - 8 boards, score 7 - 8 points, earn a couple of assists without any turnovers, and hopefully get us 4 - 5 combined blocks/steals. Do the math and that equates to 30+ FD points. Easily 6x value!
As for Bey, he is now Cunningham's sidekick. Again, Charlotte's defense is bad and this is a pace up spot for Detroit. Except for a bad game against Cleveland right after the NBA All Star Break, Bey has been great this month and much of his success is tied to Cunningham's success. I am confident that Bey can score at least 20 points and earn at least 5 boards and 5 assists. If he can do that, then we are looking at 5x or 6x value.
PF: Montrezl Harrell and Isaiah Hartenstein
By now you probably think I have lost my mind by picking two more bench players. Hear me out first. Houston is awful and will most likely lose by 15 - 20 points. That means more run for the Clippers bench. The Clippers are also running a very tight rotation of 8 - 9 players with each player getting at least 20 minutes. Hartenstein did very well against Houston right before the NBA All Star Break so he could repeat that performance tonight. His price is somewhat prohibitive for a bench player at $5800 but we want to play the low ownership angle.
Same can be said about Harrell. $6700 on FD is a lot to pay for a bench player. However, Charlotte, much like the Clippers, are running a very tight rotation and the bench players get good run. Harrell has cracked 30 FD points in each of his last 4 games and the Detroit frontcourt is non-existent. Plus Detroit will miss a good deal of baskets so you can count on Harrell getting a double-double. Throw in some blocked shots and he should have no problem getting to 30 DK/FD points again tonight.
C: P.J. Washington
We end this column with yet another big man going against Detroit. Remember, the Pistons offense will shoot like crazy. That means a lot of misses which is good for us if we roster the Hornets frontcourt. His price is very reasonable for a starter and we should get a double-double out of him. Ownership might be suppressed with the masses flocking to Jokic. Let's be contrarian here!
There you have it! Lots of bench players but good bench players against soft teams. The ownership and matchups will be in our favor. Good luck!