Happy Hour NBA DFS (Feb. 28, 2022)

Sorry for the late post. My other job got in the way and as always, Mondays and the end of the month are crazy!

Last night was funny. Detroit and Charlotte went to OT and combined for 153 points. Yet, Cade Cunningham and LaMelo Ball (easily the two biggest usage monsters for their teams) did not play anywhere close to 5x value. Montrezl Harrell was a bust as well as PJ Washington. Doncic, Lebron, and Jokic also played under value and you could have won without rostering any of them. Sometime NBA DFS can be weird. We just move on to the next day!

We have a seven game slate and three studs I am eyeing: Giannis, Morant, and Murray. Sabonis and SGA are in play but the model likes the other three I just mentioned. Here is a spreadsheet showing my model's outputs and this time I added a column for FD position.

NBA DFS Google Spreadsheet

Also, here are tables showing the top 5 optimal lineups using my model.



Since the slate locks very soon, I will quickly discuss the top players based on my model.

Player #1: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis is a beast. We know this. However, he gets a super soft team that can't play any defense and plays fast. They also had a game yesterday and have to travel to Milwaukee. Charlotte has to be exhausted after an OT game in the evening and playing such a tight rotation for the last few weeks. Yes, there is blowout potential but if Milwaukee is up by 20 near the end of the 3rd quarter, that is because of Giannis going gangbusters. People will be deterred from rostering Giannis because of the soft matchup but I say you go all in with the Greek Freak. He can get us 60 - 70 DK/FD points in 28 minutes of playing time. He is that good.

Player #2: Ja Morant

This kid is an animal. He can do it all and could become a household name should he lead the Grizzlies to the NBA Finals this season, something that seems more realisitic with each passing day given the Suns and Warriors injury woes. While Memphis has experienced success thanks to a deep bench and a physically imposing frontcourt, you still need star power to be a contender and Morant is a star. The Spurs starters should be well rested since they were benched on Saturday on the 2nd half of a BTB set but the Spurs are also like Charlotte: bad defense and fast pace. The last time San Antonio allowed fewer than 100 points was Jan. 19. The last two games the Spurs have allowed a combined total of 286 points. Not 186. 286! Let that sink in for a bit. Of course there is a blowout potential but the Spurs get Murray back (more on him in a minute) so I think the Spurs can keep it close.

Player #3: Dejounte Murray

What amazing growth for this young man! Kudos to Gregg Poppovich for developing him. He did the same for Kawhi Leonard who was not a lottery draft pick and didn't become an All Star until his 5th year. Same is true for Murray. Murray has learned how to become a triple double threat and also plays phenomenal defense. He is the perfect complement to Morant and I think we will have a great show tonight in Memphis.

With no West Coast games this evening, our Murray-Morant stack (if you want to call it that) could be the late night hammer we need to put us over the top in our GPPs. Finding the right value pieces will be tricky, especially if we roster Giannis with Murray and Morant, but I think we can do it with some of the Indiana, Brooklyn, and OKC starters. Best of luck and I promise to have more detailed analysis for tomorrow's slate.