Super Five Picks - Week 11

by Gus Elmashni

Sorry for the poor advice last week. 1-4 is awful and we are better than that.

Not to make excuses but last week was unusual with several birthdays in my family including my 40th. With all of the hoopla out of the way, we are back to making better predictions.

We will spare you the season numbers and just get right down to business. Here is who we will roll with for Week 11.

Green Bay +2

New Orleans -7.5

Buffalo +5.5

Philadelphia -3.5

Seattle -2.5

Definitely lighter with the chalk. Here are our reasons.

  • The Packers are actually favored to beat Baltimore by 3.74 points based on the GE model. Getting 2 points in this kind of situation doesn't come around too often so we have to jump on the Packers. They just beat the Bears on the road and perhaps the bye week helped them figure out their offense sans Aaron Rodgers. The Ravens are nothing special and have at times looked downright awful this season. Playing at Lambeau is never easy and the Packers will seize the opportunity, especially with Rodgers making great progress with his collarbone injury. Prediction: Green Bay 20 - Baltimore 17.

  • The GE model has the Saints favored by 8.14 points. That is just enough to cover the -7.5 line. Right now the Saints are the hottest team in the league. They are absolutely dominant on both lines and we all know that winning the war in the trenches is necessary for going far in the NFL. The Saints have beaten teams in so many ways and it doesn't matter if the games are in the Superdome or on the road. This Saints team is for real and now they get a mediocre team in the Redskins. In Washington's defense, they have played 7 teams with winning records and must have the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. However, five of those games have resulted in losses in at least 8 points. Except for the Saints home opener which was a 16 point loss to the defending Super Bowl champions, the Saints have won each home game by at least 8 points. We feel the GE model is going to be spot on with this game. Prediction: New Orleans 30 - Washington 22.

  • Buffalo is expected to lose by 1.3 points according to the GE model. That means that getting 5.5 points is awesome value. The Bills did get beat pretty badly at home last week to the Saints but who hasn't been beaten pretty badly by the Saints. The Chargers are a decent team but they are 3-6. The Bills are 5-4. Vegas favoring the Chargers by 5.5 points just doesn't make any sense here so maybe we are missing something. Still, the Bills have the talent to keep this game close and are in the thick of the of the AFC playoff race. Prediction: LA Chargers 21 - Buffalo 20.

  • We have Philadelphia favored to beat Dallas on the road on Sunday Night Football but by just 1.83 points. Of course the line is at 3.5 points in favor of Philadelphia. So why take Philadelphia? No Zeke & no Sean Lee, that's why. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and like the Saints, are simply of fire. Maybe they won't blow the Cowboys out of the water but they just have way more talent than the Cowboys and are healthy. Carson Wentz is also playing like an MVP and has a chance to further his case for MVP on national TV against America's Team. Prediction: Philadelphia 27 - Dallas 20.

  • Seattle is favored to beat Atlanta by 4 points based on the GE model. Most books have them winning by 2.5 points. We are very familiar with Seattle's awesome home record. Given that Seattle has had a few extra days of rest compared to Atlanta and are hosting on Monday Night football, we can see Seattle covering, especially since the opponent will be an east coast team playing a late night game on the west coast. Losing Richard Sherman for the season will sting for Seattle but Earl Thomas is the real reason why the Legion of Boom has earned its name. The Falcons looked better last week against Dallas but for most of this season, they have been a lost team. Losing the way they did in the Super Bowl cannot be easy and the Super Bowl hangover will continue in Puget Sound. Prediction: Seattle 24 - Atlanta 20.

We won't waste our time predicting the other games. The strategy is simple ... parlay Green Bay with New Orleans. $200 to win $500 sounds about right. Press your winning on Buffalo in the afternoon game. Then press again on Philadelphia on Sunday night. Finally press on Seattle on Monday night. If all goes well, you will end up with $3500 but will have just risked $200 initially. That should cover holiday shopping!