Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone! This is arguably one of the happiest Super Bowls for me as my beloved 49ers have an excellent opportunity to end their 29 year championship drought. Of course there have been much heartbreak since their last title during the 1994 season or Super Bowl XXIX (29 for those who are Roman Numeral challenged). Let's count the ways the 49ers have been the bridesmaid/maid of honor.

1997: Loss to Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game; 49ers were 13-3, had home field advantage, and boasted a top 5 offense and defense

2011: Loss to NY Giants in the NFC Championship Game thanks to Kyle Williams fumbling two kickoff returns

2012: Loss to Baltimore in the Super Bowl; Harbaugh had Kaepernick throw it to Crabtree three straight times in the red zone with just a few minutes left in the game instead of handing the ball off to Gore

2013: Loss to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game; 49ers fought hard in that game against arguably one of the best NFL defenses in the last 20 years

2019: Loss to Kansas City in the Super Bowl; Shanahan was out coached as the 49ers blew a 20-10 lead in the 3rd quarter

2021: Loss to LA Rams in the NFC Championship Game; 49ers had an improbable run by sneaking into the playoffs and pulling off nail biter wins against Dallas and Green Bay on the road but they simply ran out of gas by the time they saw LA

2022: Loss to Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game which was probably the 49ers biggest meltdown in franchise history

Clearly there was a lull in the 49ers contending for a title from 1998 - 2010 and again from 2014 - 2018. Those were dark years for 49ers fans who were accustomed to seeing the 49ers compete at a high level during the Joe Montana/Steve Young era. Still, the 49ers are considered one of the most successful NFL franchises in NFL history with 5 Super Bowl wins and now 8 trips to the big game. There are still a few teams that have never been to the Super Bowl such as Detroit and Cleveland.

What is interesting is that here we have the 58th Super Bowl being played and the last time the 49ers won a Super Bowl was in the 29th such event. That is exactly half! Perhaps the Math Gods are working in favor of the 49ers!

But let's get serious here. What will it take for the 49ers to stop being the bridesmaid/maid of honor and to finally make it to the altar? To be honest, it won't take much. All the 49ers have to do is to keep playing their style of football and they should find themselves hoisting a 6th Lombardi trophy later this evening in Sin City.

Think about it. What is it that the 49ers do well? Two things: third down conversion and red zone efficiency. It's not rocket science. If your offense can keep the chains moving and score 7 points instead of 3 points each time they reach the red zone, you are going to win more times than not. During the last six Super Bowls, there have been four instances in which one of the Super Bowl teams entered the Super Bowl with both a better 3rd down conversion rate and red zone offense than its opponent. Each of those four teams won the Super Bowl: 2017 Philadelphia, 2019 Kansas City, 2021 LA Rams, and 2022 Kansas City.

During the 2023 regular season, the 49ers ranked 1st in red zone efficiency at 68.49% and 3rd in third down conversion rate at 48.79%. Meanwhile, Kansas City's red zone efficiency plummeted this year to 19th at 52.79%. Usually the Chiefs would rank in the top 2 or 3 with a percentage hovering around 70%. Their third down conversion rate is still solid ranking 6th at 43.02% and the Chiefs boast the strongest defense they have ever had in the Mahomes/Kelce/Reid era. But is the Chief defense really that intimidating? Not once have the Chiefs allowed an opponent to crack 30 points this season but they have lost to some teams who were able to score TDs in the red zone. Detroit and Green Bay were successful in doing that against Kansas City and of course San Francisco beat both teams in the postseason to get to the Super Bowl. Denver also had success in the red zone when they played Kansas City. Here is how each of those three team performed in the red zone against the Chiefs.

Detroit: 2-3 and won 21-20
Denver: 3-5 and won 24-9
Green Bay: 3-4 and won 27-19

That is 8-12 or 66.67% which is close to the 49ers red zone percentage. Don't expect the 49ers to put up a ridiculous amount of point but definitely count on them to punch the ball into the end zone once they get in the red zone. Not since the 1994 49ers with Ricky Watters or the 1980s 49ers with Roger Craig have I had so much confidence in the 49ers to score easily with the run game once they were close to the end zone. Christian McCaffrey is the 49ers best player and you win games with your best player. Yes, Brock Purdy has been great and the 49ers have plenty of firepower with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle but just hand the rock to McCaffrey. After all, you have All-Pro talent with left tackle Trent Williams and fullback Kyle Juszczyk helping pave the way for McCaffrey to chew up yards and score TDs. That is how the 49ers convert 3rd downs and settle for TDs, not FGs, once in the red zone. Don't overthink it. 7 points is four more than 3 points. Simple math.

We can get into what KC can do when they have the ball but now they are missing Pro Bowl left guard Joe Thuney. I can see the 49ers defense getting after the QB and having more success at stopping the run with Thuney out of the picture. Nick Bosa and the rest of the defensive front seven need to shine today and not let the Chiefs hog the clock which might be their strategy to keep the 49ers offense on the sidelines. If Bosa, Chase Young, Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw, and Fred Warner all step up big time on defense and limit the Chiefs offense, then the 49ers have an excellent chance to do some damage when they are on offense.

I still think this game is close given the Chiefs' rich experience in the Super Bowl (after all it's their 4th trip in the last 5 years), excellent coaching, and perhaps the best QB-TE duo in NFL history. This won't be easy for San Francisco and this represents their biggest test yet but if you want to be a champion, you have to rise up to that challenge. I think the 49ers are up to the task and that is not just my heart talking. Both my heart and head tell me the 49ers win a close one.

San Francisco 27
Kansas City 24
MVP: Christian McCaffrey (2 TDs)

Enjoy the game and GO NINERS!

Merry Christmas everyone! I hope all of you are enjoying the holidays with family and friends. It has been a while since I have written an article for my blog. Blame final exams as the last 2 - 3 weeks of the fall semester can be intense for yours truly. While I am not a student, writing final exams, preparing students for those dreaded assessments, and then grading their work can be a time consuming process. I am glad it's all over!

What a great way to kick off the holiday break than with perhaps the best matchup we have had this NFL season. Two 11-3 teams. Each one holds the #1 seed and possesses the higher point differential in their respective conferences. This can easily be a Super Bowl preview. Baltimore is a very well coached team and a resilient one given that they lost their starting RB (JK Dobbins) early in the year and then one of their top pass catchers (Mark Andrews) just a few weeks ago. Still, we all know that the true identity of the Ravens offense is solely attributed to one person: Lamar Jackson. He does it all with his arm and his legs. He may not be putting up the gaudy stats that he did during his 2nd year in the NFL (2019) but Jackson is still a threat to chew up big yards on the ground which puts opposing defenses on high alert. That means Jackson will often find a receiver in a favorable situation should a defender bite whenever Jackson is on the move while in the pocket.

Still, Baltimore is a team that loves to run the ball. In fact, the Ravens lead the NFL with rushing play percentage at 50.83%. The league median is around 42% and those who watch football know the NFL has become more of a passing league over the last 15-20 years. Guess which team is 2nd in rushing play percentage? You guessed it ... the 49ers at 49.76%! What does all that mean? That means that controlling the clock and ultimately controlling the tempo of the game will yield great results as we have witnessed this season with a combined record of 226 for the Ravens and 49ers. Sometimes keeping things simple and old school like running the ball is the best path to success on the gridiron.

Meanwhile, the 49ers haven't been plagued by the injury bug like Baltimore has and it seems that injury is probably the only thing that can stop the 49ers but we shall see on Christmas night. Clearly this will be the 49ers biggest test yet. They succeeded by exorcising their demons in Philadelphia earlier this month and they have dominated their division. Also, the 49ers have played a rather tough schedule with nine of their games against teams that rank in the top half of ESPN's NFL Power Rankings. San Francisco has gone 7-2 in those games with two of those losses against the Ohio teams.

After the Week 5 win against Dallas, I was comparing this current brand of the 49ers to the 1989 team that ran through the competition in the playoffs. However, that was incredibly premature of me to do so since the 49ers would then lose 3 in a row. Granted, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Cincinnati are playoff contenders but it was shock to see the 49ers stumble so hard after such a hot start. However, sometimes you need to lose to win and I think the 49ers are on a war path and, again, the only thing that can stop them is injury. San Francisco has experienced playoff heartbreak 3 times in the last 4 seasons and they are pretty much done being the bridesmaid or even the maid of honor. They are ready to get hitched and there is an outstanding chance it will happen this year. In some ways, the 2023 49ers are very much like the 1994 team which of course was the last time the 49ers won a Super Bowl. I was a senior in high school then and now I am 46, married with 3 kids and nearly 20 years of service with my current employer. Oh, how time flies!

Back then, the 49ers came close to glory but their wings would get clipped by the Dallas Cowboys. Once the 49ers figured out how to overcome that obstacle, there was no stopping them. Beating Philadelphia on the road and doing so in dominant fashion is exactly what the doctor ordered. There is simply too much talent on the 49ers. You have Brock Purdy who has to be one of the best underdog stories in NFL history having been picked last in the 2022 draft only to find himself the odds-on favorite to win the regular season MVP award. Then you have Christian McCaffrey, another strong MVP candidate, who will most likely win the Offensive Player of the Year. Throw in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle and no wonder opposing defenses are clueless when it comes to deciding which player to focus on. Stack the box and Purdy will find one of his receivers open. Commit more defenders to the secondary and McCaffrey will make you pay. Kyle Shanahan is finally the puppet master we have all waited for him to become.

As much as I like John Harbaugh as a coach and as electric as Jackson is at the QB position, it just won't be enough to beat the 49ers, especially since it will be a home game for San Francisco. The time zone change will also be difficult for Baltimore since the 5:15 pM kick off will feel like 8:15 PM for the Ravens. The crowd at Levi's will be energized and ready to get one step closer to home field advantage. Plus Baltimore lost another talented offensive player in Keaton Mitchell whose blazing speed will be sorely missed. The 49ers defense is playing to its true potential and will be able to protect the early lead the offense will provide.

I expect another strong start for the 49ers and then for them to run away with the game in the 3rd quarter. Prediction: San Francisco 38 - Baltimore 24.

I won't waste your time predicting outcomes for the other games. This Monday night affair is the only game that matters. Enjoy it and GO NINERS!

It has been a 4 week hiatus with my Big Five Picks but for good reason! My family and I took a small family trip to Santa Rosa to meet up with some friends who also have children of similar age during Week 10 of the NFL season. Too hard to write an NFL article when you are relaxing pool side with good company! Then we had Thanksgiving Break. Even though I had time off from work, it was important to use that time to be with family. After that, we had the explosion of Christmas that immediately follows Thanksgiving and the usual cold/flu/fever/RSV/whatever respiratory infection that comes through your house at this time of year, especially when you have kids who go to a school that sometimes acts like a petri dish full of germs! I still haven't fully shaken off whatever bug that struck a week ago!

I am feeling better and I am eager to share some picks with those who have enjoyed reading my articles. More importantly, we have a game on the horizon that has been on my mind for quite some time. If you don't know what I am talking about, just stop reading! Well, I will just say it ... 49ers - Eagles! I have never wanted a 49er win so badly since the early 90s or the mid to late 90s when the 49ers lost repeatedly to the Dallas Cowboys and then the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs. As I have shared in previous posts, my first true memory of football was watching the 49ers beat the Bengals in Super Bowl XXIII back in January 1988. I was 10 years old at the time and ever since then I have been a fan. The 49ers followed up that season with complete dominance by going 14-2 during the 1989 season and then steamrolling the competition in the playoffs en route to a 2nd consecutive championship in Super Bowl XXIV. The 49ers continued to play at superior level during the 1990 season by going 14-2 again and looked poised for a 3rd straight trip to the Super Bowl only to see Roger Craig fumble the ball late in the NFC title game to the NY Giants which then enabled the Giants to kick a game winning field goal as time expired.

Back then, you had this feeling that the 49ers were invincible and anything less than a Super Bowl win was unacceptable. Oh, to be 12 years old again! The 49ers did get another Super Bowl win in 1994 but only to see them lose deep in the playoffs to other classic teams I already mentioned like the Cowboys and Packers. I must say, it felt incredibly good to exact revenge on those two teams in 1994 and 1998, respectively, and today's game will feel the same way should the 49ers take care of business in the City of Brotherly Love.

Let me reiterate that I have NEVER wanted a 49ers win this BADLY since the 90s! There have been many great 49ers seasons this current millennium and other teams that have been a thorn on the side like Seattle about 10 years ago but beating Philadelphia would mean so much. It would mean that the Eagles are truly a lucky team that should be regressing towards the mean. Look at any fundamental or advanced metric and it's mind boggling that the Eagles are 10-1. The Chiefs and the Bills had them beat in the last two weeks only to see Jalen Hurts continually pull a rabbit out of his ass. The refs also seem to make calls in favor of the Eagles which can be incredibly frustrating. The 49ers are hungry and the betting public has noticed it with the 49ers as a 3 point favorite on the road. I will admit that such a line is a total slap in the face to the Eagles. After all, they are the defending NFC Champions, beat the 49ers to a pulp last year int he NFC title game, they have a better record, beaten good teams, and they are hosting. What else do they need to do?!

Still, the 49ers team have the right personnel to beat the Eagles. We all know the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in NFL history. To challenge them in a slow, grind-it-out type of game is foolish. You won't stand a chance even if you have a strong defensive line like the 49ers and Christian McCaffrey toting the rock on the other side of the ball. To beat Philadelphia, you have to force them in a shootout. The Bills had the right game plan last week but the Eagles kicked a 59 yard field goal to force overtime and Hurts got into the endzone in just enough time to seal the Bills fate. However, the Eagles nearly lost to the lowly Washington Commanders when both teams scored 30 points each. The Eagles lost in the Super Bowl last year with a final score of 38-35. One of the Eagles three losses last year was to the Cowboys who won 40-33. The Eagles don't lose often but then they do, it's when the pace of the game is ramped up by a few levels.

That is precisely what the 49ers need to do. Don't let the foot off the pedal. They have the offensive firepower to play that type of game with Brock Purdy, McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. As long as the other pieces such as Trent Williams and Kyle Juszczyk do their job by creating space (which they have done at a Pro Bowl lever every year for as as they have been with the 49ers), the 49ers can run up the scoreboard and force the Eagles to get out of their comfort zone or otherwise known as the "Tush Push". However, I still think the 49ers defensive front seven can stop the "Tush Push" should the Eagles find themselves in a few short yardage situations while its 3rd or 4th down in the middle of the field or in the redzone. This will be strength on strength and will be so much fun to watch! Let's just hope the refs let these guys play and keep the penalty calls to a minimum.

If you have made it this far, you are probably wondering when I am going to get to my Big Five Picks and my analysis. Well, I kind of have already given you my analysis of the biggest game of the day and arguably the biggest game of the year. The other games don't matter as much but I will give you my picks without too much analysis which of course will include my prediction for the 49ers-Eagles. Here we go!

1. Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

The Arizona Cardinals are shit. The Steelers are a playoff contender and hosting this game. The model has Pittsburgh winning 14.73 points. Need I say more? Pittsburgh 27 - Arizona 13.

2. Miami Dolphins -9

The Washing Commanders are shit. The Dolphins are not just a playoff contender but a Super Bowl contender. They might be on the road but it won't matter. Washington can't stop any aerial attack and now they get to face the most lethal passing game in the NFL. The model has Miami winning by 15.36 points but it could be 20 or 30 or 40! Miami 38 - Washington 17.

3. Tampa Bay -3.5

The Carolina Panthers are shit. Do you see a theme here?! Take the teams who are playing inferior competition, especially at this point in the year when team are jockeying for playoff position while others just want to get the season over with and hopefully land a good draft spot. Oh wait, the Panthers dealt their first round pick this year for Bryce Young who has looked awful! And the Panthers have a new coach today. Wow, what a mess the Panthers have become. The Bucs might be a middle of the road team but they have the talent to demolish Carolina. The model has Tampa Bay winning by 10.27 points. Expect yet another favored team to win by double digits. Tampa Bay 24 - Carolina 14.

4. Cleveland Browns +4

OK, I can't take all chalk today! The Browns are now on QB #4 and on the road so this is a risky pick. However, the Browns still have a solid running game, talented receivers, and one of the best defenses in the NFL. Even though QB Joe Flacco is 38 years old, he still has some gas left in the tank and is a proven winner. He could see himself in Canton, Ohio once he retires. Just maybe not on the first or second or even the third ballot but he is Hall of Fame worthy. He will do enough to manage the game for Cleveland who is looking to make the playoffs whereas the Rams are still going through an identity crisis after winning the Super Bowl two years ago. The model has Cleveland winning by 5.38 points so I will somewhat temper expectations given the Browns recent QB issues. Cleveland 19 - LA Rams 17.

5. San Francisco -3

I have said my piece here! I want this one BADLY! The model has the 49ers win by 9.25 points. I agree. The 49ers win convincingly and hopefully get that coveted 6th Super Bowl trophy two months from now. San Francisco 30 - Philadelphia 20.

There you have it. Expect two blowouts in the morning slate, another semi-blowout in the afternoon, a tough battle in Hollywood where the more physical team wins, and the 49ers finally get their revenge 3,000 miles from home. Enjoy the games and GO NINERS!

Week 8 was another weird week for the NFL. Lots of games pushed against the spread or came close to pushing. In fact, 3 of the Big Five Picks pushed. Unfortunately the other two did not cover. The overall record is 17-19-4. Perhaps we switch back to the eye test instead of running the model. Well that is what we will do! Just like the 49ers who have to make some adjustments after a 3 game losing streak, the Big Five Picks will also go through an adjustment.

The eye test likes the following five teams: Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Jets. If you haven't noticed, 4 of those 5 teams are named after birds. The only other bird team I didn't select was the Seattle Seahawks and they are playing the Ravens. Perhaps it's time to be a bit crazy with my picks. After all, the book and movie One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest is based on a hospital for crazy people. Why not select teams with bird names and then fly away with the Jets on Monday Night Football!

Seriously though, I like the teams I have listed. Two of them have seen line movements in their favor. The other two have seen the opposite but I will explain why I like them. And of course we have a great matchup in the afternoon between two NFC heavyweights that could come down to the wire.

Let's get down to my reasons for the Big Five Picks.

1. Atlanta Falcons -3.5

This line opened at -1 but quickly went to -3.5 when news came out that Kirk Cousins is done for the season. Rookie QB Jaren Hall will start. He was solid at BYU the last two years but I don't think that is saying much. After all, Zach Wilson was even better at BYU (who Hall replaced after Wilson was drafted) but has struggled in the NFL. Hall was drafted in the 5th round so I am guessing he will be mediocre at best in his first NFL start. The Vikings traded for Joshua Dobbs but he was not very successful with Arizona this season going 1-7. Needless to say, Minnesota is in trouble with Captain Kirk on the sidelines. This is a road game in a dome so that doesn't bode well for Hall. Also, where Minnesota struggles is where Atlanta thrives. The rush defense is not great for Minnesota and Atlanta loves to run. Take a look at Minnesota's game against Philadelphia in Week 2. The Eagles are a run first team (yes, the passing game is very good too) and had a great game on the ground with 48 carries, 259 yards, and 3 TDs. I fully expect Falcons RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to both have a field day. Atlanta 24 - Minnesota 17.

2. Arizona Cardinals +12.5

I know it's crazy (that is the theme for this week!) to go with a team that is 1-7 and playing against a playoff contender (and a very physical team) on the road. It's even crazier to roll with a rookie QB who is a complete unknown. After all, I have decided to go against Jaren Hall with my previous pick. However, we are getting 12.5 points, not 3.5 points. That is a lot of points. Even though the line has moved 2.5 points in favor of Cleveland, the over-under is at 38.5 points. I don't like teams favored by double digits when the over-under is below 40 points. That just doesn't make any sense. Essentially you are rooting for 24 - 10 or 27-13 outcome. Remember when I took Cleveland to cover against the 49ers in Week 6? It was the same situation but of course the tables are turned now that Cleveland is the double digit favorite. Arizona will lose but not by 2 TDs. Cleveland 24 - Arizona 13.

3. Baltimore Ravens -6.5

It's fair to say that Baltimore is the hottest team in the NFL right now. They are on a 3 game winning streak and could be 8-0 if not for close losses to Indianapolis or Pittsburgh. This will be a home game for the Ravens and they host a west coast team having to adjust to a 3 hour time zone change in an early game. Seattle has looked good but I don't think they are any match for Baltimore. In fact, I would argue that Detroit is a better team than Seattle (I know, Seattle beat Detroit earlier this season) and Detroit got their asses kicked in Baltimore two weeks ago. The line movement says it all as the betting public likes Baltimore to keep on rolling. Lamar Jackson should have another great day as he proves why he was worthy of that big contract he signed a few months ago. Baltimore 28 - Seattle 20.

4. Philadelphia Eagles -3

This one is simple for me: Dallas cannot win big games. Actually, Dak Prescott cannot win big games. I still expect this game to be high scoring and Prescott to have a strong stat line today (likewise with CeeDee Lamb). However, when it comes down to crunch time, Prescott folds. There is a reason why he has not beaten the 49ers in his last 3 games against them and each one of those games were on a national stage. Prescott beat Philadelphia once last year but Hurts did not play in that game. The Eagles are arguably the best team in the NFL right now and are at home where they thrive. The Dallas defense is tough but Hurts and his offensive line are pretty much matchup proof. Likewise with AJ Brown, his favorite receiver. Eagles win in the final minute. Philadelphia 27 - 20.

5. New York Jets +3.5

This line is a head scratcher for me. The Chargers are mediocre at best but they are favored by 3.5 points? In a road game on Monday Night Football in a major US city like New York City?! I will gladly take 3.5 points for the home dog. Lose by a field goal and you still cover. However, I don't think New York loses. First of all, they have a better record than LA. Secondly, New York beat better teams at home: Buffalo and Philadelphia. And they almost beat Kansas City! There is clearly no respect for the Jets but they have proven they can win without Rodgers. I am at a loss as to why the Jets are not expected to win. The defense is solid as well as the run game. Go Joe Namath here. Jets win as a home dog. New York Jets 23 - LA Chargers 20.

There you have it! Two dogs and 3 favors. Or go aviary/crazy this week!

Brutal Week 7! 0-5! Jeesh! Overall the record for the Big Five Picks is 17-17-1. Exactly 50%. Time to get ourselves a 5-0 week and back to profitability.\

We can mull over last week and ow crazy of a week that was (and sulk over the 49ers' 2nd straight loss) but the best thing to do is to dust ourselves off and try again. No monkeying around today! Stick with the best teams in the league going against inferior opponents. Last week there were several games against evenly matched opponents which I like to call Vegas's revenge since the it was the dogs that came through. This week it will be public's revenge in which the chalk covers. Without further ado, here are the picks!

1. NY Jets -3

Don't kid yourselves here by seeing that the Jets are on the road. This is a home game for both NY teams as they share a stadium. Go with the better team here. The Giants offensive line is trash and the Jets defense is very good. Even though the Giants are playing better with Tyrod Taylor behind center and might be better off cutting Daniel Jones now (that's an article for another time) the fact remains that this Giants team is arguably the worst in the NFL and might have their sites set on Caleb Williams at the NFL Draft next spring. Expect playmakers such as Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson to have 100+ total yards and a TD each. Jets win this game by a touchdown. NY Jets 21 - NY Giants 14.

2. Philadelphia -7

Often I talk about avoiding divisional matchups but here we have two teams going in opposite directions. Philadelphia looks poised for another Super Bowl run whereas Washington is much like their cellar dwellar neighbor in the NFC East (NY Giants) is in dire need of an identity. This Eagles team is physical and they proved last week by limiting the Dolphins juggernaut offense to just 17 points. Meanwhile the Eagles won by 14 points so I am shocked that the line is just 7 point even though the game is on the road. The Commanders give up a lot of sacks and the Eagles can bring the pressure. On the other side of the ball, no way will Washington stop the Eagles run attack. Good luck penetrating the Eagles offensive line which is perhaps the best I have seen since the 1990s Cowboys offensive line (most of whom are in the Hall of Fame). Eagles win by double digits. Philadelphia 27 - Washington 17.

3. Cleveland +4

Again, roll with physical teams today. Cleveland might be on the road with cross country travel but the model thinks this game should be a pick 'em so I will gladly take the 4 points. Lose by a field goal and you still cover. The Browns beat the 49ers two weeks ago and is a slugfest and then beat Indianapolis in a track meet. There is a sense of versatility here I am noticing with this Browns team so I don't think they easily lay down to Seattle and lose by a TD or more. This game will be close regardless if it's DeShaun Watson or P.J. Walker starting at QB for Cleveland. Seattle hasn't faced a team this physical yet. Expect a close game with Cleveland pulling out another victory by the skin of their teeth. Cleveland 20 - Seattle 19.

4. Baltimore -10

Don't overthink this one. Arizona stinks and Baltimore is good. If Baltimore can beat the living crap out of Detroit, imagine what they will do to Arizona. Baltimore is dominating on both sides of the ball and Arizona is getting dominated both ways. Baltimore wins huge here. Baltimore 31 - Arizona 10.

5. Kansas City -7

Don't overthink this one either. Kansas City has won two Super Bowls in the last 4 years and have been to 5 straight AFC title games. Denver wishes this season could end now. Yes, it's a divisional game and in Denver but Kansas City rarely loses games and usually covers against inferior teams. Taylor Swift or no Taylor Swift in attendance, the Chiefs smoke the Bronocs. Kansas City 34 - 14.

Sorry for the short narratives for Baltimore and Kansas City but it's my daughter's 4th birthday today so I will need to wrap up this article ASAP! Time to celebrate her and a 5-0 week! Good luck!

When you're hot, you're hot! Another 4-1 week! That is the 3rd time the Big Five Picks have gone 4-1 and we are only six weeks into this young season. Overall the record is 17-12-1 or 58.62% accuracy. When picking against the spread, usually there is a 10% juice meaning the payout is at -110 or for each $100 placed on a team against the spread, the payout is $100 * 1/1.1 or $90.91. In order to reach profitability, you need to have at least 52.4% accuracy. Let's assume you place 1 unit on each game (or say $100) using the Big Five Picks this season. That means you were paid out for 17 of those games, lost 12 times, and pushed once (there was that weird field goal Sean McVay decided to kick with a few seconds left in the game but his team was down by 10 points). You would be up $345.45 which is a return on investment of 11.51% given that you have had to risk a total of $3000 over the last 6 weeks. Not bad!

For those who have been using my picks, you are very welcome! Hopefully you are near the top in your point spread/pick 'em contests, still alive in your survivor pool, or just making some nice side cash. With another week of in-season data at our disposal, the model is starting to become more robust. What does the model like this week? Check out the list below. The team expected to win is shown with their expected margin of victory (or what the spread should be in favor of the listed team) and the current spread in parentheses.

JAX -1.53 (-1)
LV -4.42 (-2.5)
CLE -6.05 (-3.5)
BUF -13.65 (-8)
WAS -6.11 (-3)
TB -0.44 (-2.5)
DET -2.06 (+3)
LAR -1.78 (-3)
SEA -9.04 (-7.5)
GB -5.11 (-1)
KC -8.37 (-5.5)
MIA -0.53 (+2.5)
SF -12.55 (-7)

As you can see, the model will tend to prefer favored teams and only two underdogs are preferred: Detroit and Miami. As a general rule, I try to avoid divisional matchups and I am weary of large spreads since I think the model is over-fitting the favored team (meaning it's giving the favored team too much credit). That means I will most likely avoid Buffalo. That spread kind of reminds me of the 49ers last week. Low point total but nearly double digit spread. So Vegas thinks that the Bills will win 24-14 or something like that? Perhaps but I would much rather take a double digit favor when the point total is close to 50. That way you are cheering for scoring, not an outcome that barely covers. Plus Buffalo is on the road (much like the 49ers were last week) and Buffalo hasn't looked too hot lately. Of course New England is terrible but divisional matchups are tough to predict.

It's usually wise to select teams with a rather large delta between their expected margin of victory and the current spread but, again, try to avoid divisional matchups and ask yourself if the model makes sense. That is where we infuse the art into the science when it comes to making predictions. Models are fine but they are not perfect. The eye test can carry just as much value such as how the teams are playing at the current moment, who is active or not, days of rest, travel, time game is played, weather, and so on.

With all that said, here are the Big Five Picks for Week 7 with my reasons.

1. Cleveland -3

The Browns are coming off a huge win by handing the 49ers their first loss of the season. After the 49ers dismantled Dallas on national TV about two weeks ago, most pundits and NFL fans were thinking the 49ers hot start could be one of the best starts in NFL history. I certainly thought so! How dare we compare any team to the historically good 49ers teams from 1984, 1989, and 1994! Let's see how the 49ers finish this season. I still feel they can go 14-3 or 15-2 and win the whole thing but a lot can happen from now and February. For now, it's OK to lose a game. After all, only one team has ever run the table (1972 Dolphins) and I don't know if we will ever see a perfect team in our lifetime. The media pressure would just be too intense.

OK, but let's get back to Cleveland! Why do I like them? Well the model likes them but it's because the Browns have a very, very good defense and will face a backup QB prone to taking a decent number of sacks and making costly turnovers. Often times people will say that teams that can win the war in the trenches will win football games and that still holds true. I can't think of too many teams that are as dominant with both offensive and defensive lines as the Browns are with maybe an exception to the current 5-1 teams (SF, DET, PHI, and KC). Sorry MIA but you are a finesse team! The Browns don't quite have the playmakers on offense like the 4 teams I mentioned but they get Watson back and they have to brimming with confidence right now. Meanwhile, the Colts just announced that their top pick in the draft is out for the season. Another thing to consider is that Cleveland has allowed the 3rd fewest yards for a team's first five games since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The two other teams who have allowed fewer yards are the 1970 Minnesota Vikings and the 1971 Baltimore Colts. The former went 12-2 that season and was a perennial Super Bowl contender making the Super Bowl four times from 1969 to 1976. The latter went 10-4 that season and was defending Super Bowl champions. Don't sleep on these Browns as they can surprise us by making their first trip in franchise history to the Super Bowl this year. Cleveland 27 - Indianapolis 10.

2. Detroit +3

Speaking of teams that can make the Super Bowl this year for the first time in franchise history, how about the Detroit Lions?! For as long as I can remember, probably the most miserable fan bases were located in Cleveland and Detroit. Two cities I don't care to visit (what the heck is there to do in those cities?!) that have been hit hard by tough economic times and two teams that had winless seasons not too long ago (2017 for Cleveland and 2008 for Detroit). Of course it's still early in the season but there has to be a good deal of optimism in Detroit just as there is a high level of optimism for Detroit's rust belt neighbor just across Lake Erie. Could you imagine how nuts Lake Erie will be should the Browns and Lions square off in the Super Bowl! Who cares how cold it will be there in February! The video below I found on Twitter is just too funny!

@nflmemes_tiktok Incredible 💀 #NFL #Football #Detroit #Lions #SuperBowl #Sports #Michigan #Parade #Funny #FYP #AI ♬ original sound - NFL MEMES

Of course playing a 4-2 team on the road is not easy so it's understandable that Detroit will be an underdog but the model doesn't think so and I don't think the eye test thinks so either. The Lions beat KC on the road in the home opener! They also won in Green Bay and Tampa Bay by exactly 14 points in each of those games. Dan Campbell has to the front runner for Coach of the Year and I have to say I am incredibly impressed with how he has infused a winning culture for a franchise that had been so accustomed to losing. Baltimore finally returns home after a 3 game road trip but they look like an average team to me. They could win the AFC North but I think Cleveland will have something to say about that when they face each other again. The Ravens don't quite have the playmakers that Detroit has and the Lions now get firecracker rookie Jahmyr Gibbs back at RB. The better team is Detroit and it doesn't matter where this game is played. Expect a thrilling Lions victory in overtime. Detroit 26 - Baltimore 20.

3. LA Rams -3

Now we move on to the afternoon games! There are a lot of strange spreads and point totals in the early games so you will want to be careful with the teams you select. However, the afternoon affairs have some juicy selections. The Rams are one of them, especially with Cooper Kupp back in the fold. He has not skipped a beat with two games over 100 receiving yards. The Rams are also at home and get a team that will be quite road weary. East Coast teams traveling to California usually don't fare well and I think the distractions that Hollywood and the southern California beaches have to offer will get the best of this young Pittsburgh team. Of course let's focus on the football side of things! The Steelers pass defense is trash while the Rams have two stud WRs. Just look at what Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins did to Pittsburgh earlier this season. If each of them could surpass 100 receiving yards and score 2 TDs, just imagine the damage Kupp and rookie WR Puka Nacua can do. Plus the Steelers offense lacks punch so I highly doubt they will keep pace with the Rams passing attack.

This is my favorite selection of the day and I am even picking the Steelers to lose in my survivor pool. The model indicates this game will be close but I don't think so. LA Rams 31 - Pittsburgh 17.

4. Green Bay -1

Here we get another afternoon match between two teams going in opposite directions. The Broncos easily look like one of the worst teams in the league but on paper they should be better.

• Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton.
• Super Bowl winning QB Russell Wilson.
• Plenty of Pro Bowl level talent at key positions such as RB, WR, and CB.

So what the heck is happening in the Rocky Mountains! Maybe the thin air is tough on Payton and Wilson who both came from NFL cities that play at sea level. Who knows but we know it's a dysfunctional arrangement. Meanwhile, the Packers have found their QB in Jordan Love. He still has a steep learning curve to overcome but he will get there under the tutelage of Matt LaFleur. The Packers are well rested after a bye week and they will finally have both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the field at the same time. Both are very good at what they do so I expect the Packers to attack the anemic Broncos defense both on the ground and through the air. Denver will do what it can on offense to keep up but this will be another tough game for the Broncos as they continue on their downward spiral. They might as well start looking towards next year's NFL draft for a new QB. Green Bay 27 - Denver 20.

5. San Francisco -7

If all goes well with the morning and afternoon games, then we have saved the best for last in our quest for a 5-0 week. What better team to pick than our beloved 49ers to end the week in perfection! Of course no team is perfect and the 49ers-Browns game last week proved how hard it is to have a perfect season. Still, the 49ers came awfully close to winning in Cleveland even with the long travel, nasty weather, 3 hour time zone change, early start, questionable penalties, loss of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, and missed FGs. What this tells me is that when the odds are stacked against the 49ers, they are still a very resilient bunch. Now they get to play in the comfortable confines of US Bank Stadium against a weak defense and an offense missing its best player.

Of course the big question is if both McCaffrey and Samuel will play on Monday Night Football. No doubt their absence hurts the 49ers chances of winning but something tells me that they will see the field. Definitely monitor the injury report today. However, I am still confident the 49ers can win big by giving McCaffrey and Samuel some rest. It is a long season after all and the ultimate goal is to win a 6th Super Bowl title.

If we get a bit more granular, when the 49ers played Cleveland last week, the 49ers faced a lot of man coverage. Cleveland ranks as one of the best teams playing man and the result was Brock Purdy's worst game of his young career. On the flip side, the Vikings play more zone and tend to blitz often. That is where Purdy thrives. Even if he doesn't have McCaffrey or Samuel, he still has Aiyuk and George Kittle who are great against zone defense. The run game will be fine with Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason and of course the 49ers defense will create havoc for Kirk Cousins who is very turnover prone. In fact, the 49ers lead the the league in turnover differential at +8 while the Vikings are 2nd to last -7. This will be the 49ers "get right" game and the model thinks so too with the largest delta between expected margin of victory and published point spread. San Francisco 31 - Minnesota 20.

There you have it! Two road teams in the morning, two favored teams in the afternoon, and then having faith in the 49ers to end the week. I smell a 5-0 week cooking in the kitchen!

It looks like I was correct about trading off good weeks with bad weeks! 4-1 last week! 13-11-1 overall and a nice way to go from not profitable to profitable in just one week. Only blemish was Baltimore not getting the job done in Pittsburgh even though they had an early 10-0 lead. There are some things I learned about that game as well as a couple of other games in the evening time slots: don't roll with mobile QBs on the road! Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love all looked awful during Week 5. They were making throws that you don't expect a high school QB to make. Also, I should have known better about selecting a game between bitter division rivals. I won't make that same mistake for Week 6.

Of course I have to brag about the 49ers. They have to be on the best five game start in NFL history. They have not scored fewer than 30 points in any game so far this season and they have won by double digits except for their game against the Rams in Week 2 but that should have been a 10 point win if Sean McVay was not so insistent on kicking a meaningless field goal with just 4 seconds left. FYI, the 49ers were favored by 7 points in that game. Something smells fishy there!

For this week, we have a few big spreads which speaks volumes of the disparity in quality we are seeing among NFL teams. Some teams look great, especially at home, like San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, Kansas City, and Detroit. All of them have had at least one dominant home win (2 TD margin of victory or higher) during this young season and their combined record is 21-5 and their combined point differential is +324 points. On the flip side, some teams look downright awful, both at home and on the road, like New England, Denver, NY Giants, Chicago, and Carolina. All of them have lost by double digits multiple times and we are only 5-6 weeks into this season. Their combined record is 4-22 and their combined point differential is -333. Perhaps they are all tanking to get Caleb Williams from USC but I highly doubt Carolina gives up on Bryce Young so soon and Justin Fields still has loads of potential. Regardless of the reasons why the bottom five teams look so bad, it's clear there is a huge gap between the NFL elite and the bottom feeders. Fortunately this week, we have two games tomorrow between those groups and we already had one on Thursday night in which Kansas City covered but barely. Again, games between division rivals are tough to predict!

Enough posturing about last week and the current standings. Let's get to the Week 6 picks!

1. Cincinnati -3

At this time last week, several NFL pundits were hitting the panic button for the Bengals. A loss on the road to Arizona would mean that Cincinnati would start the season 1-4 and this is a team that has been part of the AFC elite for the last two years. Well that didn't happen. Ja'Marr Chase singlehandedly destroyed the Arizona secondary with a 15 catch, 192 yards, and 3 TD performance. That has probably catapulted Chase to the top of the Offensive Player of the Year race. Needless to say, the Bengals got their groove back and now they return home and face another NFC West team with a suspect secondary. Seattle ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and while I rarely use fantasy points when analyzing the games against the spread, I think it is noteworthy to mention it here given how bad Seattle has been against the opposition's top WR and how good Chase has been since his rookie year. In fact Chase was great at LSU where he had Joe Burrow as his QB in 2019, easily one of the best offensive teams in college football history. Meanwhile Seattle might be 3-1 but two of those wins were against the NY Giants and Carolina Panthers. They have allowed 4 WRs so far to crack 100 yards and now it looks like Tee Higgins might return for Cincinnati after a full practice yesterday. No way Seattle will be able to handle both Higgins and Chase. The spread has already moved from -2 to -3 and it could move more if Higgins is active for tomorrow. The Bengals offense will put up at least 30 points on Seattle, just how the Rams and Lions have done that already to them. Cincinnati 31 - Seattle 21.

2. Cleveland +9.5

Don't worry, I am still picking the 49ers to win! It's just that I don't think the 49ers win big. First off, the spread and point total make no sense to me. The 49ers are favored to win by nearly 10 points but the over-under is at 36 points. So Vegas thinks the 49ers win 21-10 or something like that? I am not terribly comfortable picking a team to win by double digits if scoring points will be difficult, especially if the game will be played in nasty weather. There is a 60% chance of rain in Cleveland with game time temperatures in the mid-50s. The biggest issue is the wind with wind speeds near 20 mph and gusts over 30 mph. That is much different than the beautiful California weather the 49ers have enjoyed in their 3 home games so far this season and a road game at the cozy SoFi Stadium which has served as a 2nd home venue for the 49ers. Throw in the fact that the 49ers will have to travel cross country and quickly adjust to a 3 hour time zone change. May I also add that the game starts at 1 PM local time which will feel like 10 AM for the 49ers. Don't underestimate a dramatic shift in time zones and long travel for NFL teams, even for the cream of the crop. Look at what happened to Buffalo last Sunday in their London game against Jacksonville. Again, I don't think the 49ers lose, especially with DeShaun Watson out. However, backup QB PJ Walker is not half bad, especially when he is started at home. This game will be ugly and close but the 49ers will prevail, just not cover with the model having the 49ers win by 8.11 points. San Francisco 17 - Cleveland 10.

3. Miami -14

We now shift our attention to a place where the weather should be fine and this time we will eat the chalk. Giving up 14 points is a big ask but Miami is not your typical offense. Remember, this team scored 70 points at home not that long ago. They also scored 31 points last week and 36 points in Week 1. This is a juggernaut offense with crazy speed. What Miami does especially well is cover against weak opponents. Denver and the NY Giants are in the bottom 5 of the league and Miami beat the former by 50 points and the latter by 15 points. Carolina is 0-5 and now missing its top RB. Each of Carolina's home losses have been by double digits with one of them being an 18 point loss week in Detroit. Much like the Lions, the Dolphins are part of the NFL elite so I expect a similar result. Just pick your poison with the Miami offense: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, or Raheem Mostert. This is an explosive offense that will run up the scoreboard tomorrow. Vegas thinks so as well with the line moving from 10.5 to 14 in favor of Miami. Let Tua cook! Miami 35 - Carolina 14.

4. Detroit -3

Except for a 37-31 loss at home to Seattle during Week 2, all has been humming along nicely for the team from Motor City. The Lions started the season with a surprising 21-20 victory on the road in Kansas City which actually knocked a lot of people out of their survivor pools (unless you had a chance for a re-buy). Rarely do defending Super Bowl champions lose the home opener so Detroit's Week 1 victory is not something to overlook. After losing to Seattle in Week 2, the Lions have gone on to dominate their last 3 opponents by winning each game by at least two TDs. They have done it with the ground game or through the air. This is a versatile team but a physical one. Head coach Dan Campbell and QB Jared Goff have given the Lions a winning identity, something they haven't had since the Barry Sanders days of the 90s. On the other hand, Tampa Bay lost at home earlier this season to another NFC contender that also plays physical: Philadelphia. I am not saying Detroit is better than Philadelphia but they are close in record and how they play the game. I expect a similar result and do does my model with the Lions winning by 8.92 points. Detroit 27 - Tampa Bay 16.

5. Buffalo -15

Sorry for so much chalk this week but the past results indicate that we are seeing some college football type of results with the top teams blowing out the weak teams. The NY Giants have to be thinking about Caleb Williams given how poorly Daniel Jones has played. Of course not all of the Giants struggles are his fault. The offensive line for New York has to be the worst I have ever seen and it's the defense that has given up so many points, not the QB. Still, when your QB is running for his life as soon as the ball is snapped and then making big mistakes by throwing the ball into heavy traffic or fumbling the ball to the opposition instead of going down quickly after your pass protection crumbles, you are not giving your defense much of a chance to get a breather and you are giving them a very short field to defend. This has been an ugly start for the Giants and it will only get uglier now that Jones is out and Tyrod Taylor is in. The last time Taylor started a game was in 2021 and in two of those starts, he was sacked 5 times each. In fact, Taylor played for current Bills head coach Sean McDermott in Buffalo in 2017 when Taylor was keeping the QB spot warm for Josh Allen. McDermott knows Taylor well so I expect the Buffalo defense to dominate him. I should also add that Taylor led the league in sacks allowed in 2016. This will be a get right game for Buffalo after losing in London last week. Plus they will be at home and on Sunday Night Football. I am still baffled as to how the Giants keep getting prime time spots. It will be their 4th prime time game in 6 weeks. Can we please flex them out?! Buffalo 42 - NY Giants 10.

Like the stock market, pick the blue chippers to win if the conditions seem right. That will be the case for four of the favors I picked but I am being realistic about the 49ers. By the way, my model doesn't have Cincinnati, Miami, or Buffalo covering but picking against the spread is both an art and a science. Balance is key. Enjoy the games and let's hope we get the elusive 5-0 week!

It looks like I have been trading off good weeks with bad weeks. Week 1 was 4-1 but Week 2 was 1-3-1. Week 3 was 3-2 but Week 4 was 1-4. Yikes! Overall I am 9-10-1. I will admit that last weekend was a busy one for my household given that we had a big event at my workplace, one in which my better half was receiving an award. No need for me to get into the finer details of that weekend but it was a fun event in which we got to reconnect with a lot of people we hadn't seen in quite some time. Sometimes life gets in the way of football and sometimes it's the other way around!

I think I have thought through the games in a more thorough fashion this weekend, especially now that we have 33% more in-season data than we had at this time last week. The one thing I have done in the past when predicting the outcomes of the games is to run my model that I built several years ago. The model requires DVOA or defense-adjusted value over average which is a metric developed by Football Outsiders. Sadly Football Outsiders is now a defunct site and the rights to that metric were bought out by FTN Fantasy. It is a metric that several of the top football writers use in their analysis, especially those who write for ESPN. The correlation between DVOA and win percentage is remarkable and DVOA pretty much does a fantastic job of encapsulating a team's performance for all facets of the game of football (offense, defense, and special teams) while adjusting for their opponent's strength of schedule. No one really know what exactly goes into the secret sauce given that DVOA is highly proprietary but it has been a metric that is incredibly reliable for measuring how team's are truly performing.

At first FTN required a subscription to its site to access DVOA which I thought was a bunch of BS given that it had always been free on Football Outsiders. Fortunately FTN has made DVOA free for everyone to access. I recently ran my model with DVOA as the input and projected point differential as the output. I then compared those inputs with the published spreads. Usually I will highlight the games with the largest discrepancy between those two numbers but sometimes the eye test wins out. For tomorrow, the model is loving Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, and NY Jets. Yes, the Jets! It could be due to the fact that the Jets finally get a weak opponent after having to battle with Buffalo, Dallas, and Kansas City. As for the eye test as well as picking with heart instead of my head, I will select the 49ers over the Cowboys in what we will arguably be the biggest game of the year in this young season.

Without further ado, here are my picks and analysis!

1. Baltimore -4.5

This line opened at -2 and has moved 2.5 points. That is significant movement! My model has the Ravens winning by 6.38 points so the math likes Baltimore and supports the line movement. Typically I don't like to feature games between fierce division rivals, especially in the AFC North. However, these are two teams going in opposite directions and all we need is a TD to cover. Pittsburgh also happens to be missing their starting tight end (and a very good blocker) and two starting offensive linemen. Baltimore should have no trouble applying pressure on QB Kenny Pickett. Meanwhile, the Steelers' defense has been shredded by the opposition's top vertical threat. Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, and Nico Collins all put up huge numbers against the porous Pittsburgh secondary. I fully expect Lamar Jackson to hit rookie Zay Flowers often for some deep plays and then utilize his favorite target, tight end Mark Andrews, for several mid-range passes just to keep the chains moving. Take the road team here. Baltimore 24 - Pittsburgh 17.

2. Detroit - 9.5

The line movement has not been in favor of the Lions considering that the line opened at -10. Still, it's not a significant shift and my model has Detroit winning by 13.05 points. When you peel off some of the layers, there are plenty of reasons for Detroit to beat the living crap out of Carolina. First off, it's a home game where the Detroit offense was much better last year than on the road. The stats don't lie: 5.1 yards per carry and 109.3 QB rating at home compared to 3.9 yards per carry and 87.4 QB rating on the road. Secondly, the Panthers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry (5th worst) and 6 total rushing TDs (tied for 2nd worst). Did you see what Lions RB David Montgomery did to Green Bay last week? Expect more of the same ground and pound game from the Lions tomorrow. Third, the Lions have 3 extra days of rest compared to Carolina and no travel the day before the game. Lions head coach Dan Campbell has forged an identity for the Lions. He is a no nonsense type of coach and was a very physical players during his NFL career. The Panthers are no match to the Lions' bruising style. Lions win big. Detroit 31 - Carolina 13.

3. New York Jets +2.5

Quite a bit of chalk so far so it's time to balance things out with an underdog. I am perplexed as to why Denver is favored. Yes, they are the home team and the Jets have struggled so far this season but to be fair to the Jets, they have had to play three Super Bowl contenders so far and they won one of those games and nearly won the other against the defending Super Bowl champions. Meanwhile, Denver had to pull a rabbit out of their ass to beat the Bears last week, was punked by Miami the week prior by surrendering 70 points, gave up 35 points to Washington (an offense that has looked completely lost in its last 3 games), and lost to Las Vegas (a 1-3 team) in its home opener. The Jets are a more battle tested team and QB Zach Wilson showed tremendous growth against Kansas City last week. The Denver defense is really, really bad. They rank dead last in DVOA at 38.9%. Of course there was the outlier game to Miami in Week 3 but they still gave up a ton of production to the Dolphins while the Patriots and Bills have been able to hold Miami to 24 and 20 points, respectively. My model has the Jets winning 2.39 points so I will go with the slight upset if you want to call it that. NY Jets 23 - Denver 20.

4. Kansas City -3.5

Back to chalk city with Kansas City! The Chiefs are my best pick of the day. The model has them winning by 8.92 points and, like the Jets-Broncos game, I am confused by the spread. The Chiefs offense is clicking again while the Vikings defense is mediocre at best. The line should be 7 points so I will gladly give up 3.5 points when rolling with the best QB in the universe who also happens to have the best tight end in the universe who happens to be dating the most popular musician in the world. Sorry, I couldn't help myself! Taylor Swift or no Taylor Swift, the Vikings won't be able to stop the best QB-TE connection of all time. Also, defensive tackle Chris Jones is a major disruptor at the line of scrimmage. He is playing for a big contract which he will get once the season is over. Kirk Cousins is notorious for forcing throws in tight spots when under duress so I expect the Chiefs to have some short fields to work with after a couple of Cousins' turnovers. We all know Mahomes will exploit such mistakes by the opposition. Some of you might remember the QB show on Netflix (actually called Quarterback) which had three QBs one of whom is great, one of whom is middle of the road, and one who is a journeyman. Go with the great one and go against the mediocre one. You like that?! Kansas City 34 - Minnesota 20.

5. San Francisco -4

This is purely a pick where I am going with my heart. The model has the 49ers winning by 2.10 points which seems about right. I can see a 23-21 victory where the 49ers win with a last second field goal. After all, the last two times the Cowboys clashed with the 49ers, the game came down to the wire losing both times by just one score. One would think that Dallas really wants to win this game badly and will be highly motivated to finally beat San Francisco. Still, there are few reasons why the 49ers win this game and cover the spread. It's a home game on Sunday Night Football. That is plenty of motivation for the 49ers to show up big time in this big time game. Secondly, the 49ers are 4-0 and have scored at least 30 points in each of those games. Third, the 49ers beat Arizona by 19 whereas Dallas lost to that same team the week prior by 12 points. While I don't fully believe in applying the transitive property with football (sorry for my math geekdom), I think there is some merit in comparing those results. Yes, the 49ers haven't played an opponent as good as the Cowboys but the Cowboys played anyone as good as the 49ers. After all, the Cowboys beat up on three struggling teams: Giants, Jets, and Patriots.

My last reason for going with San Francisco is Brock Purdy. I believe he is a special QB, the kind of special QB who will do something special in a high pressure situation to get the 49ers to that coveted 6th Super Bowl title. We haven't quite seen it yet since Purdy will need to have that game where he pulls the 49ers out of the abyss. This could be that game. If you think about it, most champions in all sports had such a player. We saw that with the San Francisco Giants during the 2010, 2012, and 2014 World Series runs when Tim Linceum, Barry Zito, and Madison Bumgarner all pitched lights out in those respective years. We saw that with Stephen Curry as he has helped build a dynasty for an NBA franchise that used to be the laughing stock among all sports teams in the four major North American sports leagues. We saw that with Joe Montana, especially in Super Bowl XXIII against the Bengals, one of my first memories of the 49ers.

It's not enough for Purdy to be a game manager. He will need to elevate his game to a whole other level to be a Super Bowl champion and it starts with Sunday Night. The 49ers will find themselves down 20-13 in the 4th quarter and Purdy becomes a household name by hitting Brandon Aiyuk for a game tying score with a few minutes left and then hits Deebo Samuel for the game winning TD after a Dak Prescott turnover. It's how Super Bowl dreams are made of and Purdy will make that dream a reality. San Francisco 27 - Dallas 20.

There you have it. Two early games, two afternoon games, and a Sunday Night 49ers victory as the nightcap. Enjoy the games and GO NINERS!

Before I delve into my Week 4 predictions, I must recap a very eventful Week 3. It all started with college football on Saturday night. For me personally, I don't get too involved with NCAA action unless Stanford is having a decent season which of course the Cardinal is not. However, a prime time game between Ohio State and Notre Dame is too hard to pass up. I tuned in for the final few minutes and the ending definitely had you on the edge of your seat. I feel bad for the Notre Dame fans who had a grand opportunity to see their Fighting Irish catapult into the top 5 rankings and potentially put themselves in the driver's seat for the College Football Playoffs which only takes the top 4 teams based on a committee's selections. Too bad the playoff field doesn't expand to 12 teams until next year. It's also too bad that the Notre Dame coaching staff didn't realize they only had 10 defenders on the field for Ohio State's final two plays before they punched the ball into the end zone to win the game. Still, very entertaining football regardless of who you were rooting for or if you didn't have a dog in the fight.

Then we had a crazy NFL Sunday! Let me list the ways it was crazy and how they related to some of my Week 3 predictions. By the way, I went 3-2 and the overall record is 8-6-1. Profitable!

• Miami! 70 points! HOLY SHIT! I took a break from following the games at 12 PM to hop on a Zoom call which was when Miami was up 35-13 at halftime. My eyes nearly bulged out of my head when I saw the score an hour later: 63-20. And Miami still scored another TD!
• I was awfully close with predicting the Bears-Chiefs score. I had KC winning 38-10 and it finished at 41-10 Chiefs. However, the part that was shocking was the presence of certain celebrity at the game. I was initially perplexed as to why the camera kept going to one of the luxury boxes and then noticed it was Taylor Swift sitting in Travis Kelce's box. Clearly she got more air time than the game itself!
• I had Arizona covering and predicted 28-17 but the Cowboys winning, not Arizona. Pretty wild that Arizona was a 12 point underdog but win by 12 points. At least I got the score close to the real thing!
• Lastly, why is Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels still coaching? Kicking a field goal when down by 8 with about 2 minutes left in the game? You still need to score a TD anyway if the FG hits. At least going for the TD at that moment and hopefully scoring a TD means that you don't need to drive the length of the field to get a last second FG should you get the ball back with enough time left. You even had a WR who was dominating the game. To me McDaniels is the biggest loser of all time in addition to the 2023 Stanford football team.

With the baseball regular season winding down, the NFL already 3 games deep, and the arrival of the fall season, I feel football is finally back!

So, who do I like for Week 4. Read on!

1. Indianapolis Colts Pick 'Em

Rarely do we get games that are so evenly matched that the betting public can't decide which direction to take. That is the case between the Rams and Colts which kind of have an interesting history together. Hall of Fame running backs Eric Dickerson and Marshall Faulk played for both teams with the former starting with the Rams and then going to Indy and the latter doing the opposite. Both of them had more productive seasons with the Rams. The run game will be on full display at Lucas Oil Stadium, especially with the Colts who get Anthony Richardson back from a concussion. Some people may not know this but the new head coach for the Colts, Shane Steichen, was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles during the last two seasons. In 2021, the Eagles's offense ranked 1st in rushing yards and rushing TDs. Last year, those rankings were 5th and 1st, respectively. The Colts right now are 12th in rushing yards and 5th in rushing TDs. Zach Moss, Jonathan William's understudy last year, is having himself a nice start to the 2023 season and one has to wonder how good this running game can really be once Jonathan Williams get back on the field. We shall see if Richardson runs amok after his return from a concussion but the one thing I do know is that Steichen has done a masterful job of grooming Jalen Hurts into a Pro Bowl level QB. He also helped groom Justin Herbert during his rookie season while he was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2020. So why am I rambling about the Colts coach and run game? Because they will dominate the line of scrimmage when the hey have the ball. The 49ers-Rams game from two weeks ago kind of exposed the Rams inability to stop a good run game. Aaron Donald can't do it all by himself. This game will be close but the Colts win late at home. Indianapolis 24- Los Angeles Rams 23.

2. Philadelphia -9

I don't like taking too much chalk but sometimes you need to do it like I did with the Chiefs last week against the Bears. The Commanders were dominated last week by a Super Bowl contender and that game was at home. Now they go on the road and face another Super Bowl contender who hasn't skipped much of a beat from last year. Even though the Eagles had somewhat stumbled out of the game in Week 1, they finally got their groove back on Monday Night football in Tampa Bay. The one thing that the Eagles did incredibly well last year was winning the war in the trenches on both offense and defense. No team has an offensive line even remotely close to the talent the Eagles boast. As for the defensive line, it's fair to say the Eagles defensive front four rivals any of the other tops defensive lines. Buffalo, a team with similarly good defensive line, dominated the Commanders who could only manage to score 3 points. Expect the Eagles' defense to have their way on Sunday in front of a raucous home crowd. When Philadelphia has the ball, it will keep feeding it to DeAndre Swift who is having a banner year so far behind the exceptional run blocking schemes that have been designed for him. Hurts is still doing his thing and his WRs are also doing their thing. This game will get out of hand quickly and expect the reserves to come into the game early in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia 41 - Washington 13.

3. Carolina +4

The theme last week was playing the home dogs. Well that didn't work out too well for me since I had Washington covering against Buffalo and Tampa Bay pulling off the upset against Philadelphia. At least I learned my lesson by selecting Philadelphia to crush Washington! Of course I was right about Arizona covering and of course they outright won the game. I think we see a similar result between the Vikings and Panthers. Both teams are 0-3 so something tells me that this game should be close to a pick 'em but it's not. The public loves Minnesota because they have the star power. Justin Jefferson no doubt will have a good game but he can't do everything. He doesn't throw the ball, he doesn't rush it, and obviously he doesn't play defense. The main issue I have with the Vikings is their turnover differential. Right now Minnesota ranks dead last in giveaways and in the bottom in 10 in takeaways. The Panthers get back their rookie QB who will face a very soft pass defense. While I don't like rolling with a QB only making his 3rd career start in the NFL, every once in a while a rookie QB will shine and this game could be it. Bryce Young has had the spotlight on him often in high school and college so I am sure he can handle the attention this weekend. He has decent talent surrounding him and the Panthers defense is solid. I will be calling for an upset here which is kind of weird since Minnesota hasn't won a game yet this season. Carolina 27 - Minnesota 20.

4. Los Angeles Chargers -5

Back to Chalk City! While I don't like selecting a team in a divisional game that has pretty much gone 50-50 (they split the last 3 years and each have won 7 games against each other since 2016), I can't resist picking against the Raiders. As I mentioned earlier in this article, I don't think very highly of the Raiders head coach. He is someone who has ridden the coat tails of Bill Belichick and completely flamed out in his first stint as a head coach with Denver over a decade ago. Why do teams think that assistants who worked with Belichick will ever amount to anything as an NFL head coach? There is a litany of Belichick disciples who didn't last terribly long as head coaches: Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weis, Matt Patricia, Eric Mangini, Jim Schwartz, and of course Josh McDaniels. Belichick simply doesn't mentor his assistants to become successful head coaches unlike another famous head coach with the same first name: Bill Walsh. Now Walsh was a mentor and even taught classes on leadership at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. Another knock on the Raiders is that they may have to use the services of Brian Hoyer at QB who interestingly spent a good deal of his career playing for Belichick. I suppose McDaniels wanted a backup QB he was familiar with but again, I question McDaniels' decision making. Hoyer is 16-24 as a starter and has not won a game since 2016. That means he has lost his last 15 starts. Ouch! Hoyer does not have the arm strength to make full use of WR Davante Adams' vertical abilities and it doesn't help that Hoyer is in his late 30s. This will be my best play of the day if Jimmy Garoppolo is out. Meanwhile the Chargers brought in Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator and so far Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen are lighting up the scoreboard. True, the Chargers will still be without Austin Ekeler and now Mike Williams is done for the season but the Chargers have plenty of depth at several key offensive positions. Plus, this will be a home game for the Chargers where they tend to play fairly well. The Raiders, on other hand, struggled on the road last year going 2-7. Chargers win comfortably at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles Chargers 31 - Las Vegas 20.

5. Kansas City -8.5

OK, one more heavy favor! Like their Super Bowl opponent from last season, the Chiefs finally found their groove last week when they pummeled the Bears. Maybe Taylor Swift had something to do with that! I don't know but what I do know is that Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the universe and he is matchup proof. Yes, this game is in New York and on Sunday Night Football but the Jets are now reeling thanks to Zach Wilson's struggles in the pocket. I am not sure why Jets head coach Robert Saleh still supports him. It's clear that Wilson is a bust so just cut your losses and move on. Most of the Jets players have lost faith in Wilson and now they face a team that has been a beacon of success for the last five seasons. Expect Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones to make life difficult for Wilson and expect the rain of boos to shower Wilson as he makes mistake after mistake. I see that Tim Boyle (Tim who?!) is the backup QB who is absolute trash. The Jets will need to find a QB off the street to salvage their season. Colin Kaepernick anyone? Or maybe convince Tom Brady out of retirement? The Aaron Rodgers injury will prove to be one of the most devastating injuries for an NFL franchise. Sorry Jets fans, this will be a very long season for you. Kansas City 35 - New York Jets 14.

There you have it. One pick 'em, 3 favors, and a home dog. Let's hope we get another exciting weekend of football!

Well, last week was not as successful as the previous one. 1-3-1. I was right about Tampa Bay and should have been right about San Francisco. I am still baffled as to why Rams head coach Sean McVay decided to kick a field goal with 4 seconds left. The Rams were down by 10 and of course had no chance of recovering an onside kick and throwing a hail mary to tie the game. So why kick that field goal? Endings like this make you wonder if the coaches and players are wagering on the games and ultimately making on-field decisions based on the point spread. Clearly I was wrong about Jacksonville and should have known better than to pick against Mahomes and company. As for Cincinnati, it seems that Joe Burrow's injury is much worse than most of us thought. Lastly, my pick of Detroit is your typical "anything can happen on any given Sunday". Seattle looked awful in Week 1 and Detroit looked poised to become a playoff contender after beating Kansas City in the season opener. We saw totally different teams the following week. You gotta love the randomness of the NFL season!

The best thing to do after a bad week of picks is to just dust yourself off and try again. Overall my record is 5-4-1. Let's aim to get that record to 10-4-1. Here is how we will do it!

1. Washington +6

This pick will be the first of 3 home dogs I like this weekend. I know Buffalo is a Super Bowl contender whereas Washington hasn't been a serious contender since George Bush Sr. was POTUS. However, Buffalo is 1-1 and Washington is 2-0. The Bills lost to the Jets even with Aaron Rodgers lasting just 4 plays. The Commanders are an undefeated team playing at home and we are getting 6 points. Let that sink in for a bit. Of course Sam Howell is not the household name that Josh Allen is but I am still perplexed as to why the public loves Buffalo so much here. I think the line should be Buffalo -3, not -6. What I am most impressed by with Washington is that they went on the road last week and won in Denver, not an easy place to play for any road team. I don't believe Washington will make the postseason and if they do, I don't see them going far. Buffalo should have another solid season but their championship window is closing fast. Buffalo will win this game but it will be close. Buffalo 23 - Washington 20.

2. Seattle -5.5

I am completely flipping the script here. I was against Seattle last week and now I am on the Seahawks bandwagon. First off, the line has moved from -4 to -5.5 so that is a good sign when you are taking the favored team. Secondly, Seattle is back at home where historically they had success. Also, East Coast teams that make the cross-country journey to Puget Sound usually struggle. Perhaps the biggest reason why I like Seattle is that Andy Dalton will be behind center for the toothless Panthers. Did you know that Dalton is now playing for his 5th team in as many years? His record is 15-26 since 2019. Carolina is in rebuild mode right now and it's never a good sign when you need Dalton to lead your team. Lastly, the Panthers run defense is garbage. Seattle RBs Kenneth Walker II and Zach Charbonnet should feast on Sunday. Seattle 28 - Carolina 14.

3. Kansas City -12.5

OK, OK. This is a lot of chalk to eat. However, I am fine giving up so many points when you have the defending Super Bowl champions hosting a team that is in severe turmoil. What was Justin Fields thinking by blaming the coaches for how the season has gone so far? I suppose he may have been inspired by Season 2 of the HBO show Winning Time where Magic Johnson forces the Lakers hand by firing the head coach just a few games into the 1981-1982 season. Still, Magic Johnson had won a championship as a rookie and did so by stepping in for an injured legend like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. And he did so by playing center when his natural position is point guard! Fields hasn't won jack shit so he is in no place to put his coaches under the bus. Even worse is that the Bears defensive coordinator resigned earlier this week and the defense was already playing poorly. I fully expect Patrick Mahomes to throw for 350-400 yards and 4-5 TDs. It doesn't matter that Mahomes is spreading the ball to a dozen or so receivers. Any one of us can catch a pass from Mahomes. He is that good and if there is anyone who has the gravitas that Magic Johnson had at the height of the Lakers dynasty, it's Mahomes. Kansas City steamrolls the Bears. Kansas City 38 - Chicago 10.

4. Arizona +12.5

Now, let's get back to the home dogs. This selection makes me nervous since the Dallas defense is very, very good. Arizona will most likely be a bottom five team this year and might have their sites set on Caleb Williams in next year's NFL draft. Still, the Cardinals have Pro Bowl level talent at most key positions on offense. James Conner is a solid RB and TE Zach Ertz has plenty left in the tank. Marquise Brown is decent too at the WR position. As for Dallas, they clearly have looked like a team on a mission by beating both NY teams by a combined score of 70-10. Of course the Cowboys defense had their way with those teams but I have my doubts about the offense. Gone is Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield and also gone is tight end Dalton Schultz. I also don't fully trust QB Dak Prescott. As long as Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs doesn't make any crucial errors, the Cardinals should be able to hold their own on their turf. Dallas wins but not in the same way it has won during the last two weeks. Dallas 28 - Arizona 17.

5. Tampa Bay +5

The Bucs are 2-0 and hosting Monday Night Football yet they are an underdog? Can someone please help explain that to me? Much like the Buffalo-Washington line, I think this line is off too. I would make it Philadelphia -2 or -3, not -5. The Bucs offense looks rejuvenated with Baker Mayfield calling the shots. You still have awesome talent on offense with Rachaad White, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. The Bucs defense has also looked sharp by forcing 5 turnovers so far this season and getting a pick six to seal the Bears fate last week. Don't forget that the Bucs sacked Fields 6 times as well. Meanwhile the Bucs offense has not turned over the ball. This Bucs team should continue to rule the NFC South. Of course Philadelphia is also undefeated and has the talent to get back to the Super Bowl. However, they have looked a bit sluggish lately. They barely beat the Patriots and Vikings, two teams with terrible defenses and unreliable QB play. The Bucs are the opposite: strong defense and capable QB who has a full arsenal of weapons. I will call an upset here. Tampa Bay 24 - Philadelphia 21.

There you have it! A home dog in the early games, action for all three afternoon games (afternoon delight, anyone?), and a Monday Night upset. Skyrockets in flight!

Great Week 1 of the NFL for us! 4-1! Of course the one game I completely whiffed on was my beloved 49ers where I picked them to lose to the Steelers on the road. I should have known better! Well if there is ever a time to be happy to be wrong, last Sunday was that time!

I will have to keep my Week 2 picks short and sweet since it's late on a Friday night and I am taking my son on his first Boy Scouts event all day on Saturday. Like last week, I like the chalk. I took the favors against all rookie QBs and eating the chalk clearly paid off. Two of those rookie QBs play each other so I am not touching that game (Indianapolis at Houston) and Carolina hosts a Monday night game against a divisional opponent so that is a stay away game for me.

To me, there are three favors that represent excellent value: Cincinnati, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. None of them are favored by more than a touchdown and in fact the line has swung heavily in favor for two of these teams. Detroit opened as a 3 point favorite and is now favored by 4.5 points. Tampa Bay opened as a 1.5 point underdog and now see themselves favored by 2.5 points. As for the Bengals, I just think Burrow's kryptonite is Cleveland. He is 1-5 lifetime against Cleveland and his last three losses against the Browns were ugly: a combined deficit of 65 points. Burrow's game last week was arguably the worst of his career. I expect a big bounce back game for Burrow this Sunday at home against Baltimore. Keep in mind that Burrow is a Pro Bowl level QB. You can count on him to finish the season with 4,500 yards and 30+ TDs while keeping the interceptions under 15 for the season.

Another favor I like is San Francisco. I know, I know, I was against them last week. I learned my lesson. This 49ers team has a chip on its shoulder and they know their window to win a Super Bowl is now. I expect them to keep blowing the barn doors wide open for the first half of this season. The Rams looked good last week but they are no match for the 49ers. I feel comfortable giving up 7 points. 49ers should easily win by double digits.

There is one underdog I will select and that will be Jacksonville. Getting 3.5 points is a steal, especially for team that is at home and won last week by double digits whereas its opponent lost last week at home. Yes, the betting public is biased towards Patrick Mahomes and company and you can't blame them. Since 2018, Mahomes has a 64-17 record in the regular season and a 11-3 record in the postseason. He has won two Super Bowls, 3 AFC titles, and been to the AFC Championship game in each of the last 5 seasons. If anyone has supplanted Tom Brady as the golden boy of the NFL, it's Mahomes.

However, things are not looking so hot for the KC offense. The run game lacks punch, Kelce may not play, and the receiving corps is completely unreliable. The fact that Mahomes targeted 12 receivers last week with not one of them exceeding four targets is very telling of how poor the Chiefs passing game is right now. What's more telling is that the one player with 4 targets was Isiah Pacheco, their power running back! It's also going to be very, very hot in Jacksonville on Sunday. The heat index should reach 100 degrees with a high chance of rain. This is your typical Florida humidity which is to be expected since it's still summer. I just don't see the Chiefs doing much with the passing game in those conditions and the Jaguars should not be a 3.5 point underdog at home when they are a legitimate AFC playoff contender.

Well, now you know where I stand on my five picks! Still, I must provide score predictions and bit more analysis. Here we go!

1. Cincinnati -3

Cleveland might own Burrow but Burrow owns Baltimore. In 2021, Burrow threw for nearly 1,000 yards in just two games against them. Each time he beat the Ravens by at least 20 points. Last year, Burrow went 2-1 against Baltimore with one of those wins coming in the playoffs. The Ravens are a solid team but they should have destroyed Houston last week. Now they are missing their top RB who tore his Achilles tendon last week and it out for the season. Burrow still has his full complement of weapons in Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Burrow will have a much better game and perhaps he will figure out Cleveland later in the year. Cincinnati 28 - Baltimore 20.

2. Detroit -4.5

This is not your father's Lions nor your grandfather's Lions. This team finally has a solid defense and plenty of depth at key positions on offense. They also have a QB who can steer the ship and competent coaching. The stars are all lining up for the Lions to end their 7 year playoff drought and win its first division title in 30 years. Gone is Aaron Rodgers, the Vikings are 0-2, and the Bears stink. This is the Lions chance to take the reins of the NFC North and not since the Barry Sanders days of the 90s has there been so much optimism for Detroit. They beat the defending champions on their own turf last week on national television and now they get a home game against a team that struggled last week. Rarely does Seattle lose by nearly 20 points at home but that is what happened last Sunday when they hosted a mediocre Rams team that was missing its star WR. Two starters on the offensive line for Seattle are out so I can see this game getting out of hand quickly. Expect Motor City to be humming on Sunday. Detroit 35 - Seattle 13.

3. Tampa Bay -2.5

I mentioned that the Bears stink. Yes they do. I think Justin Fields is the problem. You can't just rely on your rushing skills if you wish to succeed as an NFL QB in the NFL. It's not sustainable. There is a litany of mobile QBs who initially impressed us with their ability to slice and dice through NFL defenses using their legs only to find out a year or two later that defensive coordinators will devise schemes to keep you in the pocket and force you to beat them through the air, not on the ground. Here are a few names to share: Michael Vick, Colin Kaepernick, and Kordell Stewart. We drooled over these QBs early in their careers but they quickly learned that if you cannot develop a strong presence in the pocket that you will not last long in the NFL. Of course Vick lost a couple of years due to going to prison for running a dog fighting ring and Kaepernick was essentially blacklisted by the NFL owners for exercising his right to protest. Still, they were not as dominant on the ground once NFL defenses figured them out. You can throw Lamar Jackson into that group of QBs who has seen major regression in Years 3 and 4. Rarely do these QBs surpass 4,000 yards and 30 TDs which is what is needed to thrive as an NFL QB. I don't see Fields ever becoming that type of QB and the Bucs have a strong pass rush to make life difficult for him on Sunday. Plus it will be very hot and humid so I expect the linemen on both sides of the ball for Chicago to be completely gassed. Bucs will dominate in the trenches. Tampa Bay 31 - Chicago 10.

4. Jacksonville +3.5

I think making the Jaguars a home dog by more than 3 points it a total slap in the face to Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence. Yes, the Jaguars are hosting the defending champions but Pederson and Lawrence are champions too. Pederson coached Philadelphia to its only Super Bowl title in 2017 and did very well there except for one bad season that unfortunately led to his firing. Lawrence beat Alabama for the national title during his freshman year in 2018. The Jaguars made a big leap last season by winning the division title and pulling off a miraculous comeback in the wild card round of the playoffs. The best thing Jacksonville did since drafting Lawrence was showing Urban Meyer the door and bringing in a better mentor for Lawrence so that he can realize his fullest potential. We are now seeing why Lawrence was the top pick in the 2021 draft. Much like Detroit, the Jaguars are an upstart team that no one should sleep on. Meanwhile Kansas City might be without Kelce and they could swelter in the Florida heat. Jaguars just don't cover, they outright win. Jacksonville 28 - Kansas City 24.

5. San Francisco -7

I saved the best for last! Seven points is a decent number of points to give up but the 49ers are a team on a mission. After two straight years of heartbreak in the NFC title game, they are ready to break the door down en route to the Super Bowl in Sin City next February. Christian McCaffrey was impressive last week as well as Brandon Aiyuk but it's really pick your poison for Kyle Shanahan's offense. Lurking is Deebo Samuel who has owned the Rams and George Kittle who can easily have a big game. In fact the 49ers as a whole team own the Rams going 8-0 against them in the regular season since 2019. The one blemish is a 3 point loss in the NFC title game in 2021. I think the 49ers just ran out of steam as that was their 4th road game in as many weeks. The Rams are a former shell of themselves after winning the Super Bowl two years ago. They don't have the same hunger as the 49ers do who realize that their time to win is now. With Nick Bosa getting a big contract, it is imperative the 49ers cash in this year since it will be hard to keep everyone after a couple of years. Kudos to the 49ers for being patient with QB Brock Purdy who could wind up being one of the best values at QB in NFL draft history. The 49ers should win in impressive manner again this week. San Francisco 34 - LA Rams 17.

Enjoy the games this weekend and let's get that elusive 5-0 week!

Happy NFL First Weekend everyone! Looking back at my previous entries, I nearly forgot that I never provided my Big Five Picks for the 2022 season but instead only wrote articles for the 2022 NFL Playoffs. Life was busy at this time last year as we were expecting baby #3 and then baby #3 arrived mid-season. Life is still busy playing zone defense with 3 kids but at least all three kids are somewhat sleeping through the night! That means yours truly has a sliver of time early on Saturday mornings to share some thoughts on the games each weekend and which 5 games I feel most confident about when considering the point spread.

This first NFL weekend is quite unique since we have ourselves 3 rookie QBs all making their NFL debuts. Usually a rookie QB rides the bench to start the season and then is called upon later in the year to take the reins. However, the 2023 NFL draft saw 3 QBs selected among the first 5 picks and clearly these are teams in a rebuilding mode. Welcome Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, and Anthony Richardson to the pros. All three were highly accomplished in the college game and have been entrusted by their new franchises to lead them to the promised land. The road to NFL fame and glory, however, will take some twists and turns for these young signal callers: all of them have to work with mediocre offensive talent, at best, and face teams this week who are more seasoned. It almost feels like Carolina, Indianapolis, and Houston are expansion franchises.

Consider the first NFL starts for some of of the more recent highly drafted QBs below.

Kenny Pickett: 2022 Week 5 loss to Buffalo (38-3)
Trevor Lawrence: 2021 Week 1 loss to Houston (37-21)
Zach Wilson: 2021 Week 1 loss to Carolina (19-14)
Trey Lance: 2021 Week 5 loss to Arizona (17-10)
Justin Fields: 2021 Week 3 loss to Cleveland (26-6)
Mac Jones: 2021 Week 1 loss to Miami (17-16)
Jordan Love: 2021 Week 9 loss to Kansas City (13-7)
Joe Burrow: 2020 Week 1 loss to LA Chargers (16-13)
Tua Tagovailoa: 2020 Week 8 win against LA Rams (28-17)
Justin Herbert: 2020 Week 2 loss to Kansas City (23-20)
Kyler Murray: 2019 Week 1 tie to Detroit (27-27)
Daniel Jones: 2019 Week 3 loss to Tampa Bay (32-31)
Dwayne Haskins: 2019 Week 9 loss to Buffalo (24-9)
Baker Mayfield: 2018 Week 4 loss to Oakland (45-42)
Sam Darnold: 2018 Week 1 win against Detroit (48-17)
Josh Allen: 2018 Week 2 loss to LA Chargers (31-20)
Josh Rosen: 2018 Week 4 loss to Seattle (20-17)
Lamar Jackson: 2018 Week 11 win against Seattle (24-21)

Do the math and that is a 3-14-1 record for rookie QBs in their NFL debuts since 2018. Among those who started in Week 1, that record is 1-4-1. Sam Darnold was highly successful during Week 1 of the 2018 season but it was also against Detroit who went 6-10 that year which also happened to be previous Lions head coach Matt Paticia's first year with that team. Matt Stafford threw 4 INTs in that game, one of which was a pick six. The Jets followed that score with a punt return to the house. The Lions would go on to win just 11 games from 2019 - 2021 so I think we can throw out that game.

Other than that, history tells us that when you hand the keys to the kingdom to a very green QB, you will most likely lose the first game and not cover the spread. They say it's hard to win in the NFL and that is especially true with rookie QBs. They also say it's hard to be successful against the spread during Week 1 of the NFL with such little data to consider but my analysis dictates that we pick against each rookie QB tomorrow. Well, that's three games right there! What about the other two games to round out our Big Five picks? Read on!

1. Atlanta -3.5

As you already know, I am not high on teams starting a rookie QB. I like Bryce Young and feel he will have a successful NFL career but not right away with Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen as your best offensive weapons. Atlanta has a strong run game and this is a road game for Carolina in what will be a very loud environment inside the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The line has moved from -2 to -3.5 so trust the sharps here. Atlanta 24 - Carolina 17.

2. Jacksonville -4.5

Much like the Carolina-Atlanta game, this spread has moved quite a bit towards the favored team. It opened at -3 and now it's at -4.5. Jacksonville was much like these teams starting rookie QBs tomorrow but they are now a team on the rise after making the playoffs last year for just the 2nd time in the previous 15 seasons. Long gone is Urban Meyer and we are now seeing what Trevor Lawrence is capable of in the pro game, especially after an incredible comeback in the wild card win against the Chargers last season. For those who forgot, Jacksonville was down 27-0 midway through the 2nd quarter and wound up winning 31-30 on the shoulders of Lawrence who started the game with 4 interceptions only to erase those mistakes with 4 passing touchdowns afterwards. Jacksonville is ready to take the next step by winning the NFC South again and going on a deep playoff run, especially with so much talent surrounding Lawrence on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is dealing with a messy situation with star running back Jonathan Taylor who is now on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list. Richardson is not set up for success right now and the Colts are clearly going in an opposite direction as Jacksonville. Jaguars win this one easily. Jacksonville 31 - Indianaplois 17.

3. Baltimore -10

I know, this is a lot of chalk to eat. It's not easy selecting a team as a double digit favorite but Houston is really that bad. The Texans are simply a team that cannot get its shit straight having gone 11-38-1 since the 2020 season. A big reason for that is 4 different head coaches from 2020 - 2022 and now the Texans have another new head coach. At least the Texans realize they truly need a fresh start by using a high draft pick on a QB and grabbing an upstart head coach in DeMeco Ryans who was a very successful defensive coach for San Francisco and had a solid playing career with Houston. Still, a road game in Baltimore and facing a team with way more talent will be very tough for the Texans to overcome. It will take a while for the Texans to establish some sense of stability while the Ravens are all about stability with the same head coach since 2008 and the same starting QB since 2018. The Ravens also boast a top 10 defense. Just like the Jacksonville-Indianapolis game, Baltimore walks all over its opponent. Baltimore 31 - Houston 13.

4. Pittsburgh +2

OK, I think I will be getting a lot of hate mail (really hate text messages) because of this pick. I am a diehard 49ers fan but I don't think they win their first game of the 2023 season. I hope I am wrong but hear me out. The Steelers are a home dog against a team that has to travel cross country. It's never easy for West Coast teams to adjust to a 3 hour time zone change on the fly, especially when the game is played early. Starting at 1 PM local time will feel like starting at 10 AM for the 49ers. Even though Nick Bosa just signed a lucrative contract, he wasn't practicing with the team during training camp. There will be some adjustment. Also, don't sleep on the Steelers. Kenny Pickett and George Pickens both enter Year 2 and Najee Harris enters Year 3. All three of them are ready to make the leap to NFL stardom. Also, Mike Tomlin is one helluva a head coach. Even though Kyle Shanahan has done well with San Francisco, Tomlin is head and shoulders a better coach and will make the right decisions at the right time when this game comes down to the wire. Keep in mind that the Steelers had 3 Pro Bowlers on defense last season and finished the 2022 season on a 4 game winning streak. They also went 7-2 after the bye week. The 49ers will no doubt have another great season but don't sleep on Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh 23 - San Francisco 20.

5. NY Jets +2.5

I am definitely going against the grain here. The Bills opened as a 1 point favor and are now favored by 2.5 points. However, this is a home game for the Jets and on Monday Night Football. Also, Aaron Rodgers, who has long been rumored for quite some time to leave Green Bay for New York or another high profile city, has finally changed cities. I can't tell you the last time the Jets have had a big-named QB since Broadway Joe. Rodgers will have plenty of offensive firepower to work with, especially in the backfield with the arrival of Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall's return from a torn ACL. He also has some familiar faces with the acquisitions of long-time Packers WR Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard who was one of Rodgers' favorite receivers from 2019 - 2022. However, neither of them is Rodgers' best WR. Garrett Wilson enters Year 2 after a very successful rookie campaign. These are not your father's Jets or even your grandfather's Jets (except for the 1968 season). Defensively the Jets are sound and I would argue have a better defense than the Bills. Robert Saleh is now in his 3rd year as head coach and he has given the Jets an identity by quickly turning around the defense much like the quick turn around he did with the 49ers defense prior to his arrival in the Big Apple. The Jets defense ranked dead last in 2021 but rose to 4th in 2022. Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams have not disappointed and are ready to take the Jets defense to a championship level. The Bills have been a championship contender for the last 3 seasons but that window is coming to a close whereas the Jets just opened their championship window. I believe the sharps are wrong here. NY Jets 27 - Buffalo 20.

There you have it! Bet against the rookie QBs by taking the chalk and take two home dogs who look poised to make the playoffs this season. Enjoy the games tomorrow!

Rarely do I write a blog post for the NBA playoffs given how long the NBA playoffs last and how the outcomes of the mind boggling number of games that are played in the postseason can seem inconsequential. However, I felt compelled to put a piece together before Game 3 of the Kings-Warriors 1st round match in San Francisco later this evening since I firmly believe we are seeing a passing of the torch but not in a way I had imagined, especially when you unearth the parallels between the Kings and Warriors.

Since the 2014-2015 season, no team has been more dominant than the Golden State Warriors. Four NBA titles in the last 8 seasons. Two of those four non-championship years were still remarkable as the Warriors made it to the NBA Finals with one of those years being the 73-9 season in 2016 that broke the 1996 Chicago Bulls 72-10 regular season record, a record I thought would never be broken in my lifetime. The Warriors went 15-50 in 2020 which can be seen as a blip on the radar. Plus you can blame it on COVID as we tend to blame everything these days on COVID! The Warriors followed up that season with a return to the playoffs, or shall I say the play-in tournament. I am still confused as to how the play-in tournament doesn't count towards regular season or postseason statistics/records but I don't make the rules.

The point I am trying to make is that it has been an impressive run for Golden State. Growing up as a Warriors fan in Fremont, California during the late 80s and early 90s and bearing the burden of my Warriors fandom to college at UC San Diego in the mid to late 90s where I was surrounded by Lakers fans who initally denied that Michael Jordan was better than Magic Johnson and had yearned for the 80s Showtime Lakers, I feel extremely blessed to have witnessed the Warriors rise to the top and the longevity of their success. I would argue that this current dynasty rivals the 60s Celtics, 80s Lakers, and 90s Bulls but I would still put all three of those dynasties above the 21st Century Warriors (not sure if that is a good way to label this dynasty but I will run with it!). Definitely this bunch of misfit toys like Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have forged a core that I feel is better than the Kobe-Shaq Lakers or the Tim Duncan Spurs. Not even LeBron James has been able to stay with one team for more than 7 seasons and develop a rapport with any NBA player like the rapport among Curry, Thompson, and Green.

I had thought the Warriors dynasty was over after 2019 when they lost to Toronto in the NBA Finals. It's hard to feel bad about that loss since the rabid Toronto fan base was yearning for a championship and the Warriors simply broke down after 5 consecutive trips to the NBA Finals. It's hard on the body, no matter how athletic you are, to play 8-9 months of competitive basketball for 5 years in a row. Even the 90s Bulls had a two year reprieve when Jordan stepped away from basketball from 1994 - 1995. But then something special happened last year when the Warriors showed that they had plenty left in the tank by getting everyone healthy just in time for the playoffs and winning another title 4 years after the 3rd title in 2018. The Warriors have proven they can win in the pre and post Kevin Durant era which is why I feel this is the best NBA dynasty since the 90s Bulls.

However, like all good things, this dynasty must come to an end. Maybe I am prematurely saying "that's a wrap" for Golden State but we can't deny the age of the Warriors' core. Thompson and Green are both 33 and Curry is 35. When they won their first title in 2015, Thompson and Green were 25 and Curry was 27. Guess who is 25 years old right now and playing great basketball? DeAaron Fox of the Kings. Guess who is about to turn 27 years old 13 days from today and also playing great basketball? Damontas Sabonis of the Kings. Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, two other key players for Sacramento, are 25 and 24, respectively. While I highly doubt that Fox will ever be the prolific shooter Curry has become (in fact, I don't think we will ever see a better pure shooter as Curry in our lifetime), Fox is still shooting lights out and is driving to the rim with authority. He is burgeoning with confidence and he is hungry. In some ways, Fox reminds me of Curry 8 years ago. Two "shorter" NBA players who demonstrate phenomenal leadership both on and off the court and both very loyal to the team that drafted them. In fact, Curry was in his 6th year with Golden State when he won his first NBA title and Fox is currently in his 6th year with Sacramento. I told you that the parallels run deep here.

And all of a sudden, the Kings are now playing great defense. Davion Mitchell, who backs up Fox at point guard, had an atrocious defensive real plus-minus ratio (an advanced metric that has proven reliable for quantifying one's defense) during the regular season but has played outstanding defense in this series. This kind of reminds me of Andre Iguodala who was the savior for the Warriors when he came off the bench to play superb defense on LeBron James in the 2015 NBA Finals.

As for Sabonis, his arrival kinds of reminds me of the trade the Warriors pulled off in 2012 when they shipped Monta Ellis to Milwaukee for Andrew Bogut. Having two "shorter" guards proved to be a defensive liability for the Warriors when Curry and Ellis (both under 6'3") shared the backcourt for Golden State from 2010 - 2012. Letting Ellis go was tough as he was one of the last remaining players from the 2007 We Believe season that ended a 13 year playoff drought for Golden State (much like the 17 year playoff drought Sacramento just ended). However, the arrival of Bogut gave the Warriors an interior presence they badly needed much like how Sacramento badly needed an imposing figure down low. I couldn't tell you the last time Sacramento actually had a dominant big man and maybe the last time was when they had Chris Webber 20 years ago. The hope was that Marvin Bagley (who was drafted in 2018) would be that interior presence the Kings were sorely lacking but he has proven to be a bust and most Kings fan are still bitter that Vlade Divac, the GM at the time for Sacramento, passed on Luka Doncic who has become a top 5 NBA player.

Well the Kings ship has finally sailed in with Sabonis's arrival last year who was traded to Sacramento for another "shorter" NBA player in Tyrese Haliburton. Both Haliburton and Fox are under 6'5" and under 190 pounds so the Kings, much like the Warriors a decade ago, had to do something about their lack of physicality. Athleticism is important too but you need size to win in the NBA. Shipping Haliburton off to an Eastern Conference team draws parallels to when Ellis was traded for Golden State in 2012. After all, Ellis wound up playing into obscurity with Indiana to end his career much like how Haliburton has become an after thought with his current tenure in Indiana. On the other hand, Bogut helped the Warriors win a title in 2015 and Sabonis can do the same for the Kings this year and beyond.

For those who are NBA history buffs like me, you might remember Sabonis' father Arvydas Sabonis. When the elder Sabonis was 22 in 1986, the Portland Trailblazers drafted him. At the time, Sabonis was considered the best player in Europe and some go so far to say that he is the best European player of all time. Sadly, the USSR would not let Sabonis leave Lithunia to join the NBA. Just like how we currently blame COVID for everything, you can blame the Cold War here. Sabonis finally made it to the NBA almost 10 years later and he played brilliantly for Portland but he was past his prime. One could only wonder how great of an NBA player he could have been if he had been born just a few years later. The one silver lining here is that Domantas Sabonis was born in 1996 during his father's first year in the NBA. The younger Sabonis is now carrying his father's legacy and I cannot help but root for him even though I am a Warriors fan first.

The stomp on Sabonis by Green during Game 2 of the Kings-Warriors series definitely feels symbolic and could represent a significant turning point for both Golden State and Sacramento. Here we have a player like Green who has been so integral to the Warriors success for the last 8 seasons but has also been notorious for his antics on the court. The way he reacted when he got tangled up with Sabonis and the ensuing suspension for Game 3 should not come as a surprise. Then we have a player like Sabonis who could feel galvanized to get the Kings to the promised land much like how LeBron James felt galvanized to finally win an NBA title for his hometown team in Cleveland when Green punched James in a place you don't punch a man during Game 5 of the 2016 NBA Finals. After all, Green was suspended for the following game and the Cavaliers won the NBA Finals. I think we see something similar here where the Kings win Game 3, lose Game 4 when Green returns, and then the Kings finish off the Warriors back in the raucous Golden 1 Center next week for Game 5. That is what we call a gentleman's sweep boys and girls and when we look back at this series several years later, there is a good chance this series can be viewed as how the Warriors dynasty ended and how the Kings dynasty started.

As someone who has lived most of his life in Northern California and has experienced so much agony following the Warriors futility after the Run TMC years of the late 80s and early 90s (Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond, and Chris Mullin for those who are too young to remember or just getting into basketball), I don't think I could have asked for a better way to pass the torch off to another team. After all, the Bay Area and Sacramento have strong connections. The drive is relatively short and Bay Area residents must pass through Sacramento to get to their beloved Lake Tahoe cabin. Sacramento residents looking for a city experience can get to the Bay Bridge in about an hour and some change if there is no traffic. Yours truly works in the Bay Area and lives in Sacramento. My neighbors were instrumental in bringing the Kings from Kansas City to Sacramento in the mid 80s, a move from one prairie to another! My brother's college roommates were from Sacramento and this was down at San Diego State. Fun times since that was 20 years ago during the Kings playoff run. Speaking of 20 years ago, pretty much most of the Bay Area became bandwagon Kings fans but I refused to do so since we already had a team in the Bay Area (a story for another time).

Going a bit deeper, Warriors fans understand the Kings fans' agony. The Kings had a chance to win it all in 2002 but the refs had other ideas during Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals when the Lakers went to the free throw line nearly twice as often as the Kings did in that game. Then the Kings struggled for nearly two decades by not making the postseason from 2006 until now. Keep in mind that nearly 2/3 of NBA teams make the postseason every year. In fact, the probability of not making the postseason for 16 years is 2.5 out of one million assuming that each team has an equal chance of making the postseason. Kind of reminds me of that Dumb and Dumber quote that you still have a chance when your odds are 1 out of one million!

The Kings also had struggles in the mid 80s and early 90s by consistently whiffing on their top draft picks, much like the Warriors did during their dark years. The Kings almost left town for either Anaheim or Seattle about a decade ago but then Sacramento mayor and 5-time NBA All Star Kevin Johnson managed to keep the Kings in Sacramento. Golden 1 Center was built and the rest is history. How fitting it would be for the Golden State Warriors to pass the torch off to their northern California neighbor in a venue that shares the same first word in its name. And how symbolic would it be that instead of a real torch being passed off, it's a beam that is lit into the air once the Kings close out the series at home in Game 5. The Kings are younger and hungrier, much like the Warriors were 8 years ago. The parallels between both of these franchises and fan bases run very thick. Light the beam because it's the Kings' time.

Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone! In years past, I have typically published my Super Bowl prediction article about 2-3 days before the big game and I have to be honest, this is not an easy article to write. I still feel the 49ers should be playing in this game if not for the refs thinking Devonta Smith caught the ball early in the NFC title game (and Kyle Shanahan should have challenged the call or at least call a timeout to mull over the challenge decision!), if not for Brock Purdy getting hurt which ruptured his UCL in his throwing elbow, if not for being stuck with a 4th string QB who was eventually knocked out of the game with a concussion, if not for being forced to go back to Purdy who could not throw the ball, if not for the dumb penalties that came out of the extreme frustration the 49ers players felt as the game wore on, and so forth. The ending was a total implosion that was extremely uncharacteristic of a team that had played with a lot of class and looked very poised to finally end its 28 year Super Bowl drought.

I have been a die hard football fan since the 1988 season which coincided with the 49ers 3rd Super Bowl victory against Cincinnati. I have witnessed 8 NFC title losses (the 49ers seem to lose often in the penultimate game of the year!) and even though all of them stung when they happened, none of them stung more than the one two weeks ago. This was a team that had a championship quality defense and an offense that finally found an identity thanks to the Christian McCaffrey trade and Purdy's impressive run behind center. The Super Bowl storyline with Purdy would have been amazing: rookie QB who was the last pick in the draft playing in his home state and going up against the best QB in the NFL. I suppose we will have to wait until next year for that storyline assuming Purdy makes a full recovery from his elbow surgery and beats Trey Lance for the starting QB position during training camp.

I can go on and on about the 49ers but one must move past that NFC title calamity and focus on what I consider a national holiday. I have heard people in the Bay Area not showing any interest in the Super Bowl. Perhaps they will have it on in the background while getting a head start with spring cleaning. Perhaps they will do some shopping at the mall since the stores should not be too busy. Perhaps they will head up to the snow since the slopes will be lonely. I will admit that in the years the 49ers lost in the NFC title game, I never got amped up for the Super Bowl but I still watched it. In fact I probably watched the game more closely than any of the other Super Bowls since I wasn't hosting a party or going to another party where are copious amounts of food and booze and plenty of cheer. Still, I love football and today is a celebration of that sport. No other event draws a larger TV audience and some could say that the Super Bowl rivals holidays such as Thanksgiving and Christmas when it comes to bringing people together.

Whatever you are doing today, enjoy it and have faith that the 49ers will get back to the Super Bowl and win it! For now, let's break down the game at hand!

Super Bowl LVII Analysis

When I slice and dice this game, it's not easy picking the winner. Both Kansas City and Philadelphia are evenly matched. Interestingly they had 5 common opponents and played them in the same locations: at Arizona, home against Jacksonville, at Indianapolis, at Houston, and home against Tennessee. KC went 4-1 in those games and Philly went 5-0. KC's point differential was +39 while Philly's was +49. KC lost to Indy (20-17) and Philly barely won (17-16). FYI, both QBs were healthy for that game. In terms of 3rd conversion rate, red zone efficiency, and time of possession, the offenses for both KC and Philly are very close. In fact, their percentages are within 3 percentage points of each other. See below.

3rd down conversion rate: KC 2nd (48.86%) and Philly 4th (46.61%)
Red zone efficiency: KC 2nd (70.51%) and Philly 3rd (68.57%)
Time of possession: Philly 8th (51.97%) and KC 11th (50.22%)

We can look to the defensive stats with those metrics next but I won't. If you are looking for a deeply analytical article, I would suggest Bill Barnwell of ESPN who totally geeks out on the NFL stats. Give yourself a good hour to read his prediction article. It is fascinating how deep he dives with the numbers!

Of course Philly had a great defensive season recording 70 sacks during the regular season and allowing the least passing yards. The Chiefs haven't been too bad themselves. While they did allow the most passing TDs this season, they allowed the 8th fewest rushing yards and have looked great since their Week 8 bye. In fact, the the Chiefs forced 16 turnovers during that 11 game stretch going 10-1 and have forced exactly 2 turnovers per game in the last 4 games. Also, no team surpassed 30 points against them and five times the Chiefs allowed fewer than 20 points. In the previous 7 games, each time the Chiefs allowed at least 20 points and forced a total of 8 turnovers with 3 of them coming in one game (the 49ers previous loss before the NFC title game).

So what change was made after the bye week? The addition of rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie to the starting lineup. He was the Chiefs first round pick last year and McDuffie was a star in both high school and college. He played for acclaimed southern California high school programs like Mater Dei (perennial state champion contender with several state titles) and St. John Bosco (a team that won the state title last year and ranks as one of the best teams in the nation). Then he went on to the University of Washington where he started 11 games during his freshman year and made the All-PAC 12 team in his junior year before declaring for the NFL draft. His pre-draft measureables were impressive with a 40 yard dash time of 4.44 seconds and a vertical jump of 38.5 inches.

McDuffie went on the IR after Week 1 and didn't return until the bye week. During McDuffie's absence, the Chiefs were thrashed by the some of the NFL's marquee WRs, especially those who are physically imposing. See below.

Week 2: Mike Williams (6'4" 218 lbs) 8 receptions, 113 yards, 1 TD
Week 4: Mike Evans (6'5" 231 lbs) 8 receptions, 103 yards, 2 TDs
Week 5: Davante Adams (6'1" 215 lbs) 3 receptions, 124 yards, 2 TDs
Week 6: Stefon Diggs (6'0" 191 lbs) 10 receptions, 148 yards, 1 TD

Since McDuffie's return in Week 9, only two other WRs cracked 100 yards against KC (Christian Kirk in Week 10 and Josh Palmer in Week 11) but of course that was still early in the season for McDuffie. Keep in mind that the Chiefs faced the Bengals twice after the Week 8 bye and neither Ja'Marr Chase nor Tee Higgins cracked 100 yards. Same can be said about Davante Adams who faced the Chiefs again late in the season.

Another interesting thing to consider is Jalen Hurts' splits between man and zone defense. Hurts is one of the best against zone. In fact, his DVOA (a metric published by Football Outsiders and is considered one of the most reliable metrics out there for both individual and team performance) ranks 2nd after Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. Hurts DVOA ranking versus man defense plummets to 20th. The Chiefs played Lawrence twice this season. In the Week 10 match, Lawrence completed 29 out of 40 pass attempts for 259 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs good for a QB rating of 106.1. Fast forward 10 weeks to the divisional round of the playoffs when the Jaguars and Chiefs played each other again and here is how Lawrence performed: 24 completions out of 39 pass attempts, 217 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT for a QB rating of 74.4.

Teams tend to play zone more often than man so I anticipate that the Chiefs won't change things up all that much in the Super Bowl. While it would be wise to dial up more man defense given that Hurts struggles against such a defensive scheme, I think the Chiefs can perform just fine with either type of defense where their splits between man and zone were not as pronounced as they were for Hurts.

Earlier I discussed that the Chiefs had some issues earlier in the season when playing against physical WRs and AJ Brown is such a WR (6'1" 226 lbs). However, since Hurts injured his shoulder in the Bears game during Week 15, Brown has not had much success. In that Bears game, Brown caught 9 balls for 181 yards. In fact, he had scored 10 TDs in the prior 13 games. Since Hurts' injury, Brown has had just one game over 100 yards and only 1 TD. The playoffs have been even worse for Brown: 3 receptions for 22 yards against NYG and 4 receptions for 28 yards against SF. True, the Eagles blew through the playoffs to get to this point so they didn't need to pass the ball all that much but in a game that could turn into a shootout, the Eagles will need their passing game clicking and I am not sure if Hurts' shoulder is right.

One could point to Mahomes' ankle. After all, high ankle sprains take 4-6 weeks to heal completely and it was 3 weeks ago when Mahomes injured it. However, he looked fine in the AFC title game and has had two extra weeks of rest. Plus he has practiced in full in the lead up to the Super Bowl. Mahomes still has a laser cannon for an arm and does well against both man and zone defenses. Where Mahomes is especially lethal is the short stuff such as screens, goal line formations, and facing combination schemes. Mahomes' numbers in those situations are impressive: 19 TDs, 1 INT, 79.5 completion %, and a QB rating of 127.3. Of course QBs will perform better when passing the ball in short yardage situations but remember that Mahomes has arguably the best TE in NFL history with Travis Kelce and about 7-8 other WRs he can connect with high accuracy. Double or triple team Kelce and Mahomes will find other ways to beat you, especially in tight yardage situations. Mahomes doesn't need too much mobility for those plays, just a rocket cannon and a quick release which he has. I expect the Chiefs to run several short yardage plays in order to neutralize the Eagles exemplary pass rush.

The Eagles of course run the ball very well and have an impressive offensive line but the Chiefs have a good offensive line too and a stable of healthy RBs. Whatever the Eagles can do, the Chiefs can do just as good or better. May I aslo add that the Chiefs have a perennial Pro Bowler on the defensive line in Chris Jones. I would argue that the top 3 players in this game are Mahomes, the younger Kelce, and Jones, with a whole bunch of Eagles players to follow. Philly has depth but not quite the star power of KC.

By now it's clear where I stand on my prediction if you have made it this far! Yes, on the surface these teams are evenly matched but as you peel off the layers, I keep finding reasons why the Chiefs win and the Eagles don't. Need more reasons?

The Eagles did not play the stiff competition in the AFC. KC had to play Buffalo and Cincinnati and a whole bunch of other stud QBs where Philly has never seen an offensive juggernaut like KC or a QB even half as good as Mahomes.

And experience matters. I love Nick Siriani. He will be very successful but it's Andy Reid's time. No one is better after a bye week and Reid could become the 14th head coach to win at least two Super Bowl titles. You read that right ... 13 other coaches have won at least two Super Bowl trophies. That amounts to 32 championships out of 56. There is a reason for that dominance, experience matters!

Expect this game to be close and entertaining. It's the least I can ask for after watching the 49ers season go up in smoke two weeks ago.

Prediction: Kansas City 28 - Philadelphia 24. MVP: Patrick Mahomes.

Again, Happy Super Bowl everyone!

This may not be a terribly popular opinion among 49ers fans but I feel the 49ers have to go after a veteran QB such as Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers this offseason. Absolutely Brock Purdy had a brilliant rookie year and was one of the best sports stories given that he was taken last in the 2022 draft. It makes me sad that the 49ers did not move on to the Super Bowl since his story would have been significantly magnified this week and next.

Still, the 49ers have to think about their Super Bowl window and how they can best extend it. Here are the reasons why pursuing Brady or Rodgers makes sense.

1. Purdy will be out at least 6 months meaning he won't be able to participate in OTAs, the start of training camp, and possibly some preseason games. If Purdy has to have Tommy John surgery (instead of repairing his elbow, he goes for complete reconstruction of it), then Purdy is not back until halfway through the 2023 season. As much as I love the kid and want to see him run this often next year, we have to be realistic about this recovery timeline.

2. The 49ers invested heavily in Trey Lance in the 2021 draft in terms of future draft picks so logic would dictate we give him a chance as we did at the start of the 2022 season. However, by the time Lance see the field in September 2023, it will have been nearly 4 years since he has played a full season. He sat out the 2020 NCAA season due to COVID and preparing for the NFL draft, held the clipboard for Jimmy G in 2021, and of course got hurt in Week 2 of the 2022 season. No doubt he will be rusty and I question his football IQ since he hasn't had much real playing experience unlike Purdy who was a 4 year starter for Iowa State and demonstrated a high football IQ throughout this season. It is not uncommon for teams to let their future QB play the role of understudy for 1- 3 years (i.e. Montana 79-80, Young 87-90, Warner 98, Brady 00, Rodgers 05 - 07, Mahomes 17). Yes, it is unusual to ask Lance to be an understudy in Year 3 but in all fairness, 2022 didn't count since he could not get any meaningful reps in practice due to a season-ending injury in Week 2.

3. As grateful as I am for what Jimmy G has done for the 49ers in 2019, 2021, and this year (and even the last few games of 2017), I highly doubt he signs another one-year deal with SF and has the uncertainy of being either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd string. Spotrac.com, which does a great job of tracking sports contracts, projects Jimmy G to make about $35 million per year for 4 years or $140 million total. This leads me to my next point ...

4. The 49ers will have to pay Bosa his money to avoid him testing the free agent waters in 2024. He enters the last year of his rookie contract and has earned a solid pay day. He is clearly a top 5 NFL defender right now and will be for the next 8-10 years as long as he stays healthy. No way can the 49ers pay a QB a multi-year deal worth $100 million or more and still have enough cap space to retain Bosa and others (see my next point).

5. The 49ers already have other big contracts to satisfy for the foreseeable futute such as McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle, Williams, Warner, C. Ward, and Armstead). That is 7 players making well over $10 million next year and beyond. Throw in Bosa and again there is no way the 49ers can commit to a QB looking for a long term deal such as Derek Carr (I wouldn't want him anyway!), Daniel Jones (not sure if I want him either!), and Jimmy G (sorry, but he is signing elsewhere). Keep in mind that the NFL salary cap is about $220 million in 2023 so it looks like half of that number will be allocated to just 8 players and there are still 45 other players the 49ers have to satisfy financially.

6. Brady and Rodgers will most likely look for a 1-2 year deal with a Super Bowl contender. Yes, they are old: Brady is 46 and Rodgers is 39. However, I believe they have 1 or 2 more years left of high quality football. While both regressed last year, they still put up solid numbers. Just not their usualy gaudy stats which had made them future Hall of Famers. Keep in mind that Rodgers lost Adams to the Raiders and Brady had one of the worst offensive lines football. Give either of those QBs the talent in SF and watch them put up great numbers again. That happened with Brett Favre in 2009 with Minnesota when he was 40. He showed signs of slowing down from 2005-2008 and then had a magical season once he was surrounded by better talent. One other thing to consider: both Brady and Rodgers are from Northern California and followed the 49ers in their youth. I am guessing they wouldn't mind ending their careers winning a Super Bowl for their hometown team.

7. Signing either Brady or Rodgers allows the 49ers to still be one of the top teams in the NFL in 2023. The rest of the contenders (Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, and Bengals to name a few) don't have QB issues. If we want to win now, we need the QB position to be a non-issue in 2023. Otherwise we will let our talent rot away during a critical year in our Super Bowl window.

8. Lance and Purdy can learn a lot from Brady or Rodgers. They can use a great mentor in either QB which would make them better at their craft in 2024 and beyond. That will also highly motivate Lance to play well in 2024, the last year of his rookie deal, in order to get a big pay day in 2025. The 49ers could also franchise tag him in 2025 to extend their Super Bowl window by another year. Purdy is under contract until 2025 so either way, let Lance or Purdy learn from the best in 2023 and then go with either one as the starter for 2024 and 2025.

The 49ers were in a win-now mode in 2022 and pretty much went all-in with the McCaffrey trade. Fortunutely the key players (except Bosa) are signed for the foreseeable future meaning that the core will be intact for at least the next three seasons. However, there is not much wiggle room with the salary cap and the unfortunate injuries to our young QBs mean we need a veteran QB to step in now to steer the ship to the promised land. Vegas (next Super Bowl host) baby for next year! Let it ride with Brady or Rodgers!