NFL DFS Week 14 (2021)

It is my hope that one of these weeks we will have a better NFL DFS Sunday. It seems that the QB analysis is spot on and then some other QB just pops off. This time, I am going to stick with the GOAT. The Bills-Bucs game has the highest point total for today and Brady plays well at home. His QB rating at home this season is 113.8 compared to 97.2 on the road. Also, Brady has thrown 20 TDs and just 3 INTs at home while those numbers are 14 TDs and 7 INTs while playing away. Keep in mind that Brady has played 7 games on the road and just 5 at home so clearly Tom is terrific in Tampa. His favorite WR at Raymond James Stadium is Mike Evans. Check out his home/away splits.

Home: 26 receptions, 361 receiving yards, and 8 TDs
Road: 31 receptions, 433 receiving yards, and 2 TDs

You can expect Evans to earn close to 100 yards and score 1 - 2 TDs when playing at home. His pricing on both DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) don't reflect those awesome home/away splits. He is just $6600 on DK and $7200 on FD. He is must start if you are playing Brady today.

As for RBs, Alvin Kamara has a juicy matchup against the Jets, arguably the worst rushing defense in the league. There is no Mark Igram so Kamara should feast, especially given that he is very well rested.

I also like some cheap plays such as Javonte Williams of the Broncos and Jeff Wilson of the 49ers. With injuries to starting RBs come opportunities.

Tight end is tricky but Kyle Pitts is a good option on FD. You can also run back your Tampa Bay stack with Dawson Knox. I suspect he is due for a bounce back game after a terrible showing on MNF against New England.

Defense is too easy. Take the Chiefs who are playing great defese during their 5 game winning streak and get a very turnover prone QB visiting them at Arrowhead Stadium.

Ja'Marr Chase has diappointed lately but a mini-stack with Wilson of the 49ers works for me. I expect the 49ers offense to show up like they usually have which will force the Bengals to air it out often. With an injury to Joe Mixon, the Bengals might lean more on the passing game. Tee Higgins has been great for Cincinnati but the 49ers struggle with man defense and Chase thrives when facing such coverage.

Mike Williams is another WR I like. No Keenan Allen so Justin Herbert will be looking Williams way often today.

Here are some sample lineups. Good luck and stay warm today!