NBA DFS Playoffs (April 22, 2022)

by Gus Elmashni

Welcome to Day 7 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Some surprises for sure. Defending NBA Champions Milwaukee is facing some adversity after dropping Game 2 to Chicago and losing Khris Middleton for quite some time. Phoenix is also experiencing a similar predicament after losing Game 2 as well and a star player: Devin Booker. Both teams are somewhat against the ropes so tonight will be very telling as to how much resiliency they have.

In terms of daily fantasy sports, injuries to key stars can represent good opportunities since there will be a minutes void that needs to be filled. Using some historical data as well as my model, I feel we have some good optimal lineups that can give us an edge over the competition.

So what does the analysis indicate about today? Check out the link below. You will also find the top 10 optimal lineups for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Google Spreadsheet

Also, here are two lineups you should submit using my model. It takes correlations, defensive matchups, and game flow into consideration.

DraftKings

PG: Alex Caruso

SG: Kevin Huerter

SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo

PF: DeMar DeRozan

C: Brook Lopez

G: Wesley Matthews

F: Herbert Jones

UTIL: Mikal Bridges

FanDuel

PG: Trae Young, Alex Caruso

SG: Mikal Bridges, Wesley Matthews

SF: DeMar DeRozan, Jae Crowder

PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeAndre Hunter

C: Brook Lopez

As for narratives, check out the bullet points below.

  • No Booker means more love for Bridges. Bridges will probably play 43-44 minutes tonight, attempt at least 10 high percentage field goals, and accumulate plenty of peripheral stats. He is arguably one of the best defenders in the NBA and his defensive prowess will be needed tonight with Booker on the shelf.
  • You could play Chris Paul who had an awesome Game 1 against New Orleans and should get plenty of usage with Booker out. My concern is his price. If he doesn't crack 50 fantasy points, we are toast. CP3 is somewhat streaky as we saw with his 4th quarter outburst in Game 1.
  • Giannis, on the other hand, will shine minus Middleton. The Bulls frontcourt defense and weak so expect him to go nuclear again tonight.
  • More on Giannis. He simply does it all: score, rebound, play superb defense, and pass. Let that last item simmer for a bit. He is going to dish it out often when facing double or triple teams. That means you can expect Lopez or Matthews to be cutting to the rim during those situations. Both players are cheap and make for a great Bucks stack.
  • The game in Chicago should be close and fast paced. After all, the Bucks rank 7th in pace and the Bulls are in the middle of the pack with that metric. If Giannis goes off, you can bet every dime that DeRozan has a great game too. I expect a repeat performance from both superstars so you will want a piece of that action. Otherwise you will be cursing yourself all night.
  • Caruso seems like a good pairing with DeRozan. Lavine and Vucevic are too expensive but Caruso could surpass 30 fantasy points tonight and you are getting him for at least $2,000 cheaper than his fellow starters on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
  • Even though Atlanta is down 0-2 to Miami and Miami is the top seed in the East, don't forget that Atlanta was in the Eastern Conference Finals last year and was two games away from its first ever trip to the NBA Finals. They are a stronger team at home and the Heat might be without two of its frontcourt starters. That should open things up for Trae Young and company. I love the pairing of Young and DeAndre Hunter on FanDuel since they have a strong positive correlation with their fantasy scores. It will be impossible to jam in Giannis, DeRozan, and Young on DraftKings so you could go with another Hawks shooter such as Kevin Huerter.
  • I am staying away from most Pelicans tonight and all Heat players. I think they are overvalued except for Herbert Jones. He will play close to 40 minutes and you are getting him for under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He typically cracks 30 fantasy points when given plenty of playing time.

There you have it! Get those lineups submitted and enjoy the start to the weekend!