NBA DFS Playoffs (April 21, 2022)

by Gus Elmashni

Back to profitability! Last night's analysis was correct in fading the chalky players such as Marcus Smart and Jrue Holiday. It was also right in suggesting that Alex Caruso, OG Anunoby, and Brook Lopez were all good value. If you rostered both Smart and Holiday and had no exposure to Caruso, Anunoby, and Lopez, you clearly lost money. Remember what Warren Buffett says about investing.

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

Playing DFS is no different than investing. You are playing with money and the goal is to win. Buffett's #1 rule is to never lose money. His #2 rule is to not forget the first rule. If we go after players most people are wary of and avoid those where the masses are flocking to, we will do well as long as the analysis indicates that the high owner players won't reach 5-6x value whereas the diamonds in the rough are in a position to break out.

So what the analysis indicate about today? Check out the link below. You will also find the top 10 optimal lineups for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Google Spreadsheet

Also, here are two sample lineups using my model.

DraftKings

PG: Jordan Poole

SG: Donovan Mitchell

SF: Dillon Brooks

PF: Jaren Jackson

C: Draymond Green

G: Desmond Bane

F: Reggie Bullock

UTIL: Bryn Forbes

FanDuel

PG: Jordan Poole, Jalen Brunson

SG: Donovan Mitchell, Reggie Bullock

SF: Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks

PF: Jaren Jackson, Draymond Green

C: Rudy Gobert

As for narratives, check out the bullet points below.

  • Fade the Joker. Fade Luka. Fade Morant. That is right .. fade the three biggest names today.
  • Jokic's head was spinning the entire time at Chase Center and tonight will be no different. Poole, Klay, and Curry will continue to run circles around the Nuggets with Draymond doing what he does best: facilitate on offense and play ferocious defense.
  • As for Luka, he has a sore calf so he is not 100%. However, his presence on the floor will help draw attention from Brunson and the other Mavericks shooters.
  • Morant rarely plays north of 36 minutes so we can't justify his high salary. Most star players will play 40+ minutes in the postseason but Memphis has so much depth that they can afford to give Morant plenty of rest. Remember, the NBA playoff is a marathon, not a sprint.
  • Mitchell and Brunson attempted more FGs than anyone else two nights ago. Tonight should be no different. More FG attempts means more points.
  • Pair Mitchell with Gobert and pair Brunson with Bullock. When the top scorers for Utah and Dallas are doing well, the ancillary pieces should also do well.
  • Memphis will demolish Minnesota again tonight. If we are fading Morant, then get the other Grizzlies starters. Bane, Brooks, and Jackson are all reasonably priced and each could surpass 40 fantasy points.
  • Pair Poole with Draymond. Their pricing is fair and they do a lot on the court.