Happy Hour / Lunch Hour NBA DFS (Mar. 2, 2022)

Last night was a good one! We featured Jayson Tatum and he responded by having the highest score of the slate! Doncic and Kuzma were not bad but didn't quite hit 5x value. Barnes was solid. He didn't break the slate but definitely exceeded value. Flynn and Gafford were also essential pieces since they gave us salary savings while providing significant contributions to their teams.

Tonight should be a fun slate since I am all over the new Philly dynamic duo. The 76ers are a team on a mission. They have been denied entry to the Eastern Conference Finals for the last 4 years even though they have had one of the best records in the East during that time frame. I will never forget seeing Embiid in tears when Kawhi Leonard hit the game winner against Philly in the 2019 Eastern Conference Semifinals. Harden has also had his share of playoff heartbreak having lost to the Warriors in 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019. Both Embiid and Harden are hungry and I think they are embarking on a historic run to the title. Don't be surprised if they win 18 - 20 of the final 22 regular season games and bust the door wide open to the NBA Finals. Only injury can stop those two.

The good news is that my model agrees with the narrative above. Embiid is showing up often in the optimal lineups for DK and Harden shows up on for FD. Jokic and Giannis are two other studs to consider so it would be wise to enter multiple lineups but the one I am most excited about is a roster construction with both Harden and Embiid.

Here is a spreadsheet showing my model's outputs and this time I added a column for FD position.

NBA DFS Google Spreadsheet

Also, here are tables showing the top 5 optimal lineups using my model.



Given that it's currently 1 PM PT, I will refrain from providing narratives for each postion. However, remember what I said yesterday about playing gaurds against Sacramento. CJ McCollum is a must tonight. Get those savings with Payne (no Booker) and Vincent (no Lowry). Brogdon will be highly owned but he is chalk we have to eat given his low price, potential for high usage, and soft matchup.

Sample lineups for both DK and FD are shown below. As usual, final lineups will be shared via Twitter about 30 minutes before lock.

PG: Payne
SG: Harden
SF: Cam Johnson
PF: Herbert Jones
C: Embiid
G: Vincent
F: Love
UTIL: Lyles

PG: Payne, Vincent
SG: McCollum, Brogdon
SF: Harden, Cam Johnson
PF: Love, Herbert Jones
C: Embiid