Big Five Picks for 2018 NFL Week 7

The crazy thing about football is that one week it can really be devastating and the next week it will just lift you up. Last week was the more positive experience! After going 0-5 in Week 5, we bounced back by going 4-1 and improving our season total to 15-14-1. We are now above .500 and close to profitability!

If it was not for a backdoor cover by the Denver Broncos who were down by 10 with a few minutes left in the game, the LA Rams would have covered and we would have had a perfect week. Still, we will take 4-1 and several 4-1 weeks with some 3-2 weeks sprinkled in there will get us to the top of the leaderboard in the Supercontest.

Since the revisions worked well for us last week and our revised regression model for point differential prediction is showing more robustness with a plethora of new data at our disposal, we are confident we can keep this money train going. Here is who we like for Week 7 based on the NFL point spreads published by Westgate.

  1. LA Chargers -6.5
  2. Buffalo Bills +7.5
  3. Miami +2.5
  4. LA Rams -9.5
  5. NY Giants +5.5

We will keep our analysis short since this weekend (like 2 weekends ago) will be busy with family events. Let's just hope our results are not like Week 5 when we went 0-5! We don't think so given our revised model.

  1. The Chargers of La La Land will be in foggy London town against the Titans of Tennessee. As we have mentioned before, the Chargers are a very good team so don't let the two losses fool you. Those two losses were to the Rams and Chiefs who are arguably two of the best teams in football right now. Other than a close game to the 49ers, the Chargers have dominated the competition. The Chargers have a point differential of +31 while Tennessee is -20. The Chargers success is mainly due to Melvin Gordon playing like an offensive MVP right now and Titans mediocrity can be attributed to ranking in the bottom third of the league in rush defense. Gordon is out but the Chargers will be fine with Austin Ekeler. This won't end well for Tennessee in this overseas battle. Chargers should win this one by double digits. Prediction: LA Chargers 30 - Tennessee 17.

  2. OK, what in the world are we thinking by taking the Bills?! We have been blasting them all year! Well, the Colts are also not very good and oddly the Colts are favored by 7.5 points. Last time I checked the standings, the Bills are 2-4 and the Colts are 1-5. The Colts have given up 30 points per game which is 2nd worst in the league. The Bills are not great but they can stay competitive. Except for getting blown out by Baltimore in Week 1 and shutout by Green Bay in Week 4, the Bills won't lay down easily. There is nothing special about the Colts offense and especially the defense to indicate that they can blow out the Bills, even if the games is at home for them. Bills will probably lose but not by more than 7 points. This game should be close. Prediction: Indianapolis 23 - Buffalo 20.

  3. How Miami still gets no respect is beyond me. They were a home dog last week and won in OT against a pretty good Bears team. The Dolphins are 4-2 and undefeated at home. The Detroit Lions are 2-3 and have not won a game on the road yet this season. The Bears defense is significantly better than the Lions and the Dolphins were able to put 31 points against them. Things just don't add up here with Miami as a home dog yet again, this time by 2.5 ponts. Maybe the odds makers feel Brock Osweiler is going to be terrible this week but he is a decent QB if you put him in the right situation (like at home in favorable weather conditions). He played college football at Arizona State University so as long as the weather conditions are not cold, he will be fine. In fact, the weather in Miami will be quite humid with the real feel temperature at close to 100 F according to Road teams struggle in those conditions if they haven't practiced in yet and last time I checked, the Lions are from Detroit where the weather is already close to freezing at this time of the year. Take the money line again with Miami. They will win and make you money. Prediction: Miami 28 - Detroit 21.

  4. OK, now we are really complexed with this line. Didn't the 49ers lose at home to Arizona by 10 two weeks ago? Aren't the Cardinals 1-6 and an awful team while the Rams are 6-0 and easily the best team in football? So how is the line just 9.5 points in favor of the Rams? It seems that the lines reflect short term memory given that the 49ers played a great game in Green Bay on Monday Night Football and should have won it. Still, the Rams are just way too talented and we can see them winning this game by 20 or more points. We will be cautiously optimistic and go with a 2 TD or slightly higher than 2 TD victory. Todd Gurley runs wild again and there won't be another back door cover. Prediction: LA Rams 34 - San Francisco 17.

  5. We end with another suspicious line. Just like the Colts, the Falcons are also terrible but are getting too much respect. They are 2-4 while the Giants are 1-5. Yes, the Giants stink but they can score points with talented offensive weapons like Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley. In fact, the Falcons defense is probably worse than the Colts defense as the Falcons rank dead last in points allowed per game. This should be a track meet again at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium with the Falcons winning but not by much. Prediction: Atlanta 28 - NY Giants 27.

OK, there you have it. Good luck!