Big Five Picks for NFL Week 13
Week 12 did not go so well. 2-3. Our overall record is now 27-32-1. A 5-0 week is badly needed to pull us back up to 50%. Five weeks left so let's try to finish on a 25-0 run!
Here are our picks for Week 13 (spreads based on SuperContest hosted by Westgate).
Philadelphia -10
New York Jets -3
Kansas City -10
LA Chargers -3
New England -3
Game #1: Philadelphia at Miami. Spread: Philadelphia -10. Regression Model: Philadelphia wins by 21.45 points. Probability Model: 60.58% chance Philadelphia covers. Simple ... Miami sucks and have now lost their last two games by 17 points each. The Eagles are mediocre but they know how to beat awful teams. At this time of year, teams on the playoff bubble should win these gimme-type of games. Prediction: Philadelphia 34 - Miami 14.
Game #2: New York Jets at Cincinnati. Spread: New York Jets -3. Regression model: NY Jets wins by 8.55 points. Probability model: 56.98% chance NY Jets covers. Another simple one ... Cincinnati sucks and might go winless this season. Meanwhile the Jets have scored 34 points in each of their last three games. These are two teams heading in opposite directions. Plus the Bengals cannot make up their mind with starting QB having now going back to Andy Dalton who was benched a few weeks ago for poor play. Prediction: NY Jets 24 - Cincinnati 17.
Game #3: Oakland at Kansas City. Spread: Kansas City -10. Regression model: Kansas City wins by 13.90 points. Probability model: 53.22% chance Kansas City covers. The Raiders are tricky team to pin down. They were looking like a decent playoff contender and then get squashed in the Big Apple. Perhaps cross country travel is tricky for West Coast teams but true playoff contenders win those games such as Seattle in Philadelphia last week and the 49ers in Washington a few weeks ago. Never easy with the long travel and significant time zone change but if you are the better team, you win those games against middle of the pack or weak teams. We have known that the Chiefs are a strong team once they are at full health and that is what we have with them now. QB Patrick Mahomes will continue to give the Raiders a dose of reality as we see the Chiefs place a stake in the ground for the AFC West title. Prediction: Kansas City 34 - Oakland 20.
Game #4: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver. Spread: LA Chargers -3. Regression model: LA Chargers wins by 3.91 points. Probability model: 54.79% chance LA Chargers covers. This has been a lost season for the Chargers. They have lost so many close games. In fact every one of their seven losses has been by 7 or fewer points. The Broncos are not very good and have been dominated at times. Perhaps the Chargers go on a 5-0 run to salvage this forgetable season for them. Prediction: LA Chargers 24 - Denver 21.
Game #5: New England at Houston. Spread: New England -3. Regression model: New England wins by 18.06 points. Probability model: 61.72% chance New England covers. Besides for giving up 37 points to Baltimore a few weeks ago (Lamar Jackson is on another planet right now), no team has scored more than 14 points against the Patriots defense. The Jets were that team to score 14 points but did so with two defensive TDs late in the game. All other teams who have lost to New England struggle to move the ball against this championship quality defense. Houston will experience the same struggles. Prediction: New England 31 - Houston 13.
That's a wrap! Enjoy the last day of November before we move onto December, a very pivotal month for the NFL playoff race!