Big Five Picks for 2019 NFL Week 2

by Gus Elmashni

We are back for some more picks for Week 2. The first three picks for Week 1 turned out very, very well! 3-0! The Chiefs and Ravens didn't skip a beat from last year and the Titans proved that the sportsbooks underrated them (or perhaps the books overrated the Browns). We were in good shape with the Lions but they simply could not close out the Cardinals. We were way off with the Broncos but 3-2 is still profitable. Our goal is 4-1 this week and hopefully the elusive 5-0 week is no longer elusive.

Without further ado, here are our Week 2 picks with brief reasons for each selection.

  1. Los Angeles Chargers -2.5. This is our favorite play of the week, just how Baltimore was a our favorite play last week and of course beat the living shit out of the Dolphins. The Lions are at best a mediocre team and the way they backpedaled in the 4th quarter and OT against the Cardinals last week tells us a lot about Detroit. The Chargers are still a Super Bowl contender and won several road games last year against much better competition that the Lions (Seattle, Pittsburgh, and KC). Just giving up 2.5 points is not much and the Chargers should win this one by at least a touchdown.

  2. New York Giants +1.5. Yes, we are going with what most football fans will perceive as a bad football team but are they really that bad? During the 2nd half of last season, the Giants went 4-4 with three of those losses by 3 or fewer points. Three of those close losses were against playoff teams such as the Eagles, Colts, and Cowboys. True, OBJ is gone but OBj didn't play the last 4 games of last year and Giants were still able to hold their own. That is because Saquon Barkley is a "once-in-a-generation" running back who can take over a game. Tight end Evan Engram is also a strong offensive weapon. The Bills are nothing special and the game will be at the Giants home stadium. We love the home dog here to outright win this game.

  3. Kansas City Chiefs -7. The Chiefs did us right last week and we believe they will do us right again tomorrow. This matchup might seem tougher on the surface compared to last week which could explain why this spread is 3.5 points higher. The Raiders proved the naysayers wrong by controlling the tempo against Denver and they seem to have a chip on their shoulder after the Antonio Brown debacle. Plus this is a divisional matchup and the Chiefs are playing their 2nd road game in a row while this is the 2nd home game in a row for Oakland. Still, the Chiefs are a bonafide Super Bowl contender while the Raiders may have treated their Monday Night affair against the Broncos as their de facto Super Bowl. Our model seems to favor blue chip teams against mediocre competition, even if the spread is a touchdown or more. Regression tells us that the Chiefs should win this game by at least 2 TDs and there is not one player on the Raiders defense that indicates he can stop KC QB Patrick Mahomes. Fire up the Chiefs again as they continue their march to Miami in February.

  4. New Orleans Saints +2.5. This one should be fun. We get two dynamic offenses and arguably the top two NFC teams. To add more hype to this game, the Saints have to be pissed off after getting robbed in the NFC title game last year when the refs clearly missed a blatant pass interference penalty on one of the Saints WRs by one of the Rams defenders (I already forgot who was involved in that play but I won't forget this egregious non-call). The Rams did fine last week but Gurley still does not seem right. The Saints won an intense game last Monday night but they are still the same Saints ... great offense, opportune defense, and can close out games (when the refs don't screw them over!). This game should be close and we will gladly take 2.5 points for a team that can win this game and be plenty motivated to leave LA LA land with a sense of redemption.

  5. Cleveland Browns -2.5. Here we go again. Another Monday Night road team whose point spread has moved significantly late in the week due to news that the Super Contest could not take into account when publishing its spreads on Wednesday. Yes, Denver did us wrong but we can't pass up on this opportunity. The spread is now -7 with no Sam Darnold. Top defensive players for the Jets such as CJ Mosley and Quinnen Williams will also miss this game. If the Browns want to prove that they are not all hype after getting crushed at home by 30 points to Tennessee last week, this is their chance to showcase their talented roster on national TV. OBJ also makes his return to the Big Apple even though it was the other NY football team who let him go. If the Browns can't get it done this Monday, then we are ready to label them as the most overrated NFL team of 2019. We will take our chances here and not fade the chalk. The value is too good to pass up.

There we go. Two teams in the morning, two in the afternoon, and one Monday night team. Four road teams and one home team. Two dogs and three favors. We have a nice blend of teams for Week 2. As for strategy, parlay the two morning teams and then press your winnings on a parlay with the afternoon games. Then take 25% of your Sudnay profits and throw them on the Browns, even at -7. If we go 5-0, you make $1000 off a $100 investment with this strategy. I expect a nice thank you note on Tuesday morning.