Not a good week last Sunday. 2-3. Not devastating but still not good. Overall we are 6-4 and rank 326th in the SuperContest (out of 3,117 entires) so we need 4-1 or even a 5-0 week ... NOW! Let's not overthink it so here is who we like for Week 3 (lines were established by Westgate this past Wednesday for the SuperContest).
- New Orleans +3
- Philadelphia -6.5
- NY Giants +6.5
- New England -7
- Pittsburgh -1
We won't waste your time with information not relevant to those 5 games. Here is our analysis for our Big Five Picks.
Saints - Falcons is going to be a fun game! Vegas has it right by giving Atlanta a -3 spread. These are both very good football teams with playmakers everywhere so you have to give the home team a slight edge, especialy since the Saints lost at home to Tampa Bay and Cleveland should have beat them. Still, we like the Saints to march into Atlanta and win a pivotal divisional game againstthe Dirty Birds. By most metrics, the Saints are a better team than the Falcons. The Saints just have to eliminate the mental errors that have plagued them the past two weeks. While we feel Julio Jones is an outstanding WR, Michael Thomas is better. Alvin Kamara is also a better RB than any of the RBs for Atlanta. We see the Saints winning this game outright. Probably a 31 - 28 victory.
Like the Saints, the Eagles have started a bit slow this year. They did win the season opener but barely. Then they lsot to Tampa Bay and never had full control of that game. Well the Carson Wentz show returns and the Eagles are back in the City of Brotherly Love so we expect a better outcome. Keep in mind that the temperature in Tampa Bay was over 100 degrees, something we didn't consider when making our picks last week. Rarely does weather have an impact this early in the season but it clearly did (same can be said about New England losing to Jacksonville last week). The Eagles have an extremely talented defense and even though they are missing two RBs, they have phenomenal depth so expect Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood to do well. Wentz will connect often with Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz given that the Colts don't have much of a defense. While the Colts did well in the nation's capital last week, the Redskins offense is mediocre. Their game against the Bengals last week is a more reliable barometer and if the Bengals can put up 30+ points against the Colts, the Eagles can do the same. Plus the pass rush against Andrew Luck will be relentless and we all know that the Colts offensive line is not strong (main reason why Andrew Luck has not been relevant for a while). Expect the Eagles to win by double digits.
It's always hard to put your money on a weak team like the NY Giants. While they have two dynamic players in Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley, the rest of the team is pretty terrible. However, the Texans haven't shown us much so far this season. They are a heavily penalized team demonstrating their lack of discipline. The Giants can stay in this game even though this game is on the road against a slightly better team. Giving the Giants 6.5 points is too good to pass up, especially when the Giants have two very talented players on offense to keep the chains moving for them. This game should be close with Houston winning by a field goal or a late touchdown to take the lead. Still not enough for them to cover so take the Giants with the points.
Like last week, we are still rolling with mostly good teams just like we do with blue chip companies in the stock market. The Patriots had an off week against a hungry team with a great pass rush who was eager to avenge last year's AFC Championship loss to New England. Plus, the temperature was really hot. This game will have a more comfortable environment by playing indoors at Ford Field. It is on Sunday Night so the Lions fans will be loud at first but Tom Bradyand company should shut them up pretty quickly. Keep in mind that this is a classic teacher vs pupil matchup between Patriots head ocahc Bill Belichick and his long time assistant Matt Patricia. The Lions are going to struggle for a while given that the Lions haven't fully bought into what Patricia is selling (maybe they never will). The spread is a bit high for a road team but if the Jets can destroy the Lions on the road, we expect the Patriots to have a similar experience. We see a 31 - 20 or 38 - 24 result with New England controlling the tempo for pretty much the entire game.
Curses to Tampa Bay. They have ruined bettors the last two weeks by beating the Saints on the road and the taking care of the Eagles last week. While everyone is talking about the amazing start Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is having to his season, Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is not far behind. So will we learn from our mistakes and take Tampa Bay this time? NO! We still do not believe in the Bucs so we are going to stick with a perennial playoff contender like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now this game is on Monday Night in Tampa Bay so the Bucs will be amped up for this one. However, the Steelers are known to be slow starters and then to hit their stride once they get a couple of games under their belt. While Le'Veon Bell continues his contract holdout, there is still plenty of talent for Pittsburgh. With a spread of -1, you just need the Steelers to win (interestingly a tie like against Cleveland two weeks ago is possible!). This should be an interesting game since we will see how a familiar strong team does against a team trying to make some noise. Are the Bucs for real? We don't think so. Steelers win by a touchdown.
There you have it. Parlay the Saints (moneyline), Eagles, and Giants in the morning games, stay away from the afternoon games, go heavy on the Patriots on Sunday Night, and then finish off a great week by placing half of your profits on the Steelers. Enjoy the games this weekend!