Big Five Picks for 2018 NFL Week 10

It looks like this money train is full steam ahead! Since the start of Week 7 we are 14-6 which is 70% accuracy. We have had three 4-1 weeks with one 2-3 week (in which I was out of town and didn't have time to do proper research). We are confident that we hae a robust model that will give us an edge over the sports books so let's see what the model spits out this week for the best value.

As usual, our lines come from Westgate. Here is who we like for Week 10 with the Westgate lines next to the team and our model's line in parentheses.

Carolina +4 (-5.99)
Chicago -6.5 (-17.18)
Kansas City -16.5 (-29.21)
Washington +3 (-6.30)
LA Chargers -9.5 (-20.05)

Our methodology is to select teams whose predicted point differntials diverge the most from the published lines. Of course we were wrong about Carolina this past Thursday and perhap we need our model to be more harsh towards road teams who are underdogs to a pretty good home team like Pittsburugh. Still, we are not going to make any drastic changes due to one game. You can't win them all!

Here is our analysis for the other 4 games.

Chicago is playing like a strong playoff contender. Maybe not Super Bowl contender just yet since they are quite green and the Rams and Saints look more poised to make it the big game but the Bears are heading in the right direction. QB Mitch Trubisky has shown tremedous growth this year and expect premier pass rusher Khalil Mack to assert his will against a mediocre Detroit offensive line after taking the past couple of weeks off to get some much needed rest and be fresh for the stretch run to the playoffs. We will also go with the transitive property: Jets beat Detroit by double digits in Week 1 and Bears beat the Jets by double digits two weeks ago. That means that the Bears should cover!

Just like the Bears, the Chiefs are a young team on the rise. The difference this time is that the Chiefs are more likely to get to the Super Bowl if they can figure out how to beat the Patriots. Except for their Week 8 game against Denver, the Chiefs have covered every game this season. The Cardinals are just plain awful and their offense is just as bad as Buffalo's who have been pulverized by several teams this season. Expect Kareem Hunt to dominate again and win this game by about 30 points. This game will be over by the 1st half.

Washington is a tricky team to figure out. Their five victories have been impressive. The have beaten quality teams like Carolina and covered against Arizona, Green Bay, Dallas, and NY Giants. However, their three losses have you shaking your head with double digit losses to Indianapolis and Atlanta at home and getting crushed by the Saints at the Superdome (maybe that loss is not too surprising). Still, the Bucs defense is terrible and the Redskins have the offensive talent to expose that deficiency. Of course this game really relies on how efficient Alex Smith can be. He has proven in his career that he can put up big numbers when the matchup is right. Well it's right this week and his another solid veteran in Adrian Peterson to help him get a win and continue to lead the NFC East.

Finally, we end with the Chargers. Usually getting involved with the Raiders in a divisional matchup makes us nervous. Historically the Raiders have screwed us over. Either way we take them (for or against) we tend to lose!. Perhaps it's the ghost of Al Davis seeking his revenge for all our criticism against him! Still, this is a Raiders teams that is clearly tanking this season to build up a strong team for the move to Las Vegas. After all, they have three first round picks in the 2019 NFL Draft with one of them most likely being the first overall pick and the other two in the middle and end of that round. The Chargers, like most teams we have selected the past 4 weeks, are a blue chip team poised to make the postseason. The Raiders defense is non-existent and the Chargers will need to win to keep pace with the Chiefs who will most likely crush Arizona in the early slate. Melvin Gordon should have a field day in Oakland.

OK, let's go 4-1 again! Try parlaying the first three games and then press your winnings on the Chargers to cover. We will check in again next week!