/ Big

Big Five Bets - Week 16

Well last week was not great. 2-3. :/ The Big Five Bets are 36-37-2 for this season or 49.3%. We'll need to to go 9-1 to finish profitable. For the season, we are 119-105 which is profitable but barely.

We aim to finish strong so here are the five teams we will go with.

Philadelphia +2.5
Chicago +3
New Orleans -3
New England -16.5
Oakland -3.5

  • Philadelphia played last night and covered so no need to give any analysis here! They were favored to beat the New York Giants by 4.52 points and actually won by 5 points so we are happy to see the GE model work so well with this game!

  • Chicago is expected to lose by 0.44 points according to the GE model so we will take the home dog here. This game should be close and with Washington losing 3 of its last 4 games and the Bears hanging tough during that same stretch, we can't pass on this kind of value with Chicago.

  • New Orleans is favored to win by 3.90 points based on the GE model so we will take the Saints at -3. Drew Brees is 7-4 lifetime against the Tampa Bay Bucs when he plays them on his turf. We also know that the Saints are awesome at home and the Bucs just lost to the Cowboys so maybe the game film will show some chinks in the Bucs' armor. This game should be a shootout unlike the 16-11 result between these two teams two weeks ago and we feel the Saints will pull this one out at the end.

  • This is a crazy amount of chalk to take with New England and we don't think we have ever taken a favorite this heavy before. However, the GE model likes the Patriots to win by 18 points and the Patriots are pretty darn good at covering while the Jets are not. In fact, the Jets rarely cover against good teams and they are awful. Bill Belichick is a real asshole so expect his defense to stack the box so that Bilal Powell has little room to run and Bryce Petty to face constant pressure. LeGarrette Blount may wind up carrying the load here in a 31-13 type of game.

  • Oakland is favored to beat the Colts by 7.74 points based on the GE model. The Colts D is pretty much non-existent and the Raiders have a great offense. Like the Bucs - Saints game, this one should also be a shootout and fun one to watch. The Black Hole will be raucous on Christmas Eve knowing that the Raiders are playoff bound. Derek Carr could also thrust himself back into the MVP conversation after he hurt his chances two weeks ago in Kansas City.

There you have it!

Here is what we like for the rest of the games.

Buffalo -3.5
Jacksonville +5
Minnesota +6.5
San Diego -6
Atlanta -2.5
Arizona +7.5
Los Angeles -3.5
Houston -1
Baltimore +5.5
Denver +3.5
Dallas -7

Happy Holidays everyone!