Big Five Bets - Week 15

by Gus Elmashni

We will go with a short narrative for the games today.

For the season, we are 34-34-2 with the Big Five Bets. Let's hope we finish strong by going 15-0 for the next three weeks!

Here are the teams we like.

Detroit (+4)

Chicago (+6.5)

Minnesota (-4.5)

Buffalo (-10)

Denver (+3.5)

Here are our reasons.

  • Detroit is 9-4 and so are the New York "football" Giants. The GE model, however, has the the Lions winning this game by 0.32 points. This game should be close and low scoring given the weather and the fact that both teams really don't run much. Expect a sloppy game with Matt Stafford managing the game flow well like he has done all season.

  • It's risky taking the Bears against the Packers who are red hot but the Bears are at home and the GE Model has them losing by just 1.45 points. This game will also be ridiculously cold making it really hard to pass the football. The Packers have Ty Montgomery at running back but the Bears have a true RB in Jordan Howard. Expect this game to be close and low scoring. Packers should win but not by more than a touchdown.

  • The Vikings are favored to win this game by 9.99 points based on the GE model. Great value here! The Vikings defense rank #2 in sack rate while the Colts offense is 3rd to last in sack rate. Andrew Luck will probably be running for his life again and the Vikings home crowd will be energized with the return of Adrian Peterson. The Vikings should control the tempo of this game without any problems.

  • The Bills are hosting the Browns. Do I need to say more? Yes, giving up 10 points is a lot of chalk, especially for a team like the Bills that might fire Rex Ryan and has a sub .500 record. However, the Browns have not covered their last 7 games even with high point spreads against them. The game will be cold which makes it great for running the ball. LeSean McCoy should carve up the JV squad the Browns have right now for defense. Oh, the GE model has the Bills winning by 16.06 points which is the highest differential of the week between the GE model and the published point spreads.

  • Finally, we will go with Denver. They are favored to win by 0.11 points so there is good value here with a point spread of 3.5. Even if the Patriots win by a field goal, we cover. The problem for the Patriots is that they don't do well in Denver and with no Gronk, we feel the Pats get exposed in this one.

Here are the other games we like.

LA +16 (No cover but came close to covering)

MIA -2.5 (COVER!)

HOU -6

BAL -5.5

TEN +5

CIN +3

ARZ -2.5

ATL -13.5

OAK -3

TB +6.5

WAS -6.5

Good luck today and enjoy the games!